Arkansas Derby day at Oaklawn! Selections are based upon a wet and sloppy track! A lot of rain is expected to move into the Hot Springs area. I have a strong opinion late in the card to build around. Enjoy the race day at Oaklawn and as always let’s box a few and bet them!
I always love talking horses and handicapping. If I see anything during the race day follow me on Twitter @ BoxEmandBetEm and I’ll add up to minute info at Oaklawn Park.
Good luck and good racing!
Race 1) 5-6-1-1A
Summer Storm should be on the engine and ran well on the slop two back; nice draw should have no excuse here. #6, Sweet Tatum, takes the class drop and hopefully the drop will get this one that likes to hang, closer to the wire. The M & M entry is logical, but I’m not enamored with either one at all.
Race 2) 4-8-2
Indian Gulch has an inside tactical advantage and the rider switch to Court should have this one rolling early, while just missing last out. Street Trust hasn’t won over the Oaklawn strip in nine tries, but gets the jock change to Ricardo, a notch below my top choice. California Swag hasn’t run well on the off going at any point. But, I don’t see an alternative choice in the third slot.
Race 3) 3-6-5
Bow and Arrow ran well in the mud, two back, while Asmussen puts his go to rider in the irons; all systems go here. I really like this spot for the top choice here. Never Give In is the speed and could be dangerous if he takes to the slop. Imma Bling owns three off track wins and has been freshened for this race.
Race 4) 1-4
Short field for this edition of the Count Fleet Handicap; two horse race obviously, as Whitmore is obviously the class of the class, I have two issues with him in this spot. Mitole, with the rail draw is likely to get out on the engine and take this bunch wire to wire. Secondly, Saez takes the mount for Ricardo who is on Mitole. Take Mitole on top.
Race 5) 4-2-7
I have absolutely no feel for this race at all. Top choice is a tepid pick and has burned money, both outs, and didn’t run well in the mud in his debut. Perhaps the rider switch to Jose can turn the tables for this one. #2, Poets Dreamed, by Maclean’s Music can win at first asking, but works don’t exactly inspire. Third choice should relish the off going and has a steady work pattern for the Catman.
Race 6)
Rowayton is a single for me in any pick three sequence starting or ending. Kept some strong company in his early career and comes into this spot fresh and cuts back as well. Should get a nice trip just outside the speed drawn to his inside; Landeskog drew the rail and will be sent hard from the rain with an aggressive rider in the saddle. Pyron, has a nice off track pedigree. I’m expecting this one to need a race though.
Race 7) 4-11-5
Top choice, Rocknroll Rocket, cuts back and is a jail move by Diodoro who hits hard first off the claim. Has two very solid works for a barn that excels with this type of move. If find it interesting that Cohen takes the mount for Lost in Limbo, #11, for his second start. I expect this one to improve a lot. Breaking News has burned money in his last two starts and is hard to trust, useful underneath.
Race 8) 4-7-5
This is a spread race for me to start the late pick five. I spent too much time on this race and had no confidence each time through the race. Use as many as you can afford here.
Pick 4) 1/24510/13811/256810
Race 9) 1-2-3
Tenfold goes second off the layoff and drops out of stakes company, while adding the blinks. Should save a ton of ground and his class will prevail; my single in the late pick four sequence. #2, Pioneer Spirit is an improving type and has run well over the slop. Just doesn’t class up enough. Chris and Dave round out the top choices; he loves the slop and that will move him up big time.
Race 10) 2-4-5
Combatant is the class here, but doesn’t exactly ooze confidence as I stare at his struggles winning races. With that, I’m going to roll with Lighthawk, a lightly raced horse that appears to be improving, albeit I don’t care for his only race over an off going. Single Gem intrigues off the claim and deserves a strong look here.
Race 11) 3-1-11
Going with Omaha Beach on top; looks to be doing very well right now, has tactical speed and obviously enjoys a wet track. I’m not a workout expert and don’t profess to be one, I’ll leave that up to the professionals, but something simply isn’t right with Improbable. He looks very uncomfortable, especially in blinks.
Race 12) 5-6-2-8-10