Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski here for Friday at Oaklawn Park! Last week was decent. Started the card off with back to back winners and had the winner in 6 out of 9 races among my selections. Race 4 was tough as my second choice won at a very short price with a photo over the top pick at a very nice price. Race 9 I wish I could have back as Subiaco went off at a nice price and paid well, which would have gotten us very profitable on the week. Though- we made profit last week!!! Nice week to get us in the right direction!! Scary thing…..it’s Friday the 13th!! Let’s hope that the racing karma we have built up carries us through to the winner’s circle. I kid, I am not much for the superstitions, but if I lose badly, I may change that!!
Last Week ago: 9-3-1-2 33.3% (6/9 ITM) ($18 wagered, $21.00 returned net +3.00) $2.33 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Oaklawn 2020: 56-13-10-6 23.2% (29/56 ITM) ($108 wagered, $85.20 returned) net -$22.80) $1.57 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer-
Race 1
2 HALEYS HEIST- Genaro Garcia isn’t horrible off the claim and throws blinkers on this filly to start her career in the Southwest Racing Stables barn. I like the jockey change to De La Cruz over Vazquez here, and was a solid showing last out. She’s been knocking on the door in all starts. If De La Cruz can keep her back a bit from an early speed battle, should be able to finish strong. Getting weight allowance though I think she ends up being a cheap price.
5 SHESHED- Who doesn’t want a chance to bet on SHESHED! The commercials are catchy, so here we are…. huge weight allowance to a horse that has shown speed throughout her career. Nice auction horse here. Workouts are not that great but at a 10-1 ML I think I can take a chance here and feel good about it. If Roberts can keep her under control and actually finish a race, we will be rewarded nicely.
7 TRACI’S GREELEY- If this race melts down, I want the 7. There is a lot of speed here and this is the horse that has shown she can come late albeit mildly. If scratches take a few of these speed horses out (1,4,5) then the race complexion changes, and this horse become unusable in my opinion. Borel is not exactly lights out anymore but can get the job done if the circumstances are right.
Race 2
8 DELTA SURPISE- Full disclosure- This horse is cheap, cheap speed, and that’s been proven by the maiden after 9 attempts. At a 20-1 ML, its worth watching the tote and seeing if this field can give this cheap speed horse a win. IF this horse is below 10-1 then move on, the value will not be there. Anything single digits, I cannot tell anyone to bet this horse, but at 20-1 or higher, perhaps its worth a shot on some cheap speed. This field is a race of horses that suck, plain and simple. Finishing more than 10 lengths off the lead etc, just bad performing horses.
6 MAYAN GHOST- Towers over the field here at first glance, and I do not know how you can bet this horse as what should be less than even. McKnight has been spotty at Oaklawn at best in 2020. As I said above this race is ugly, and I cannot tell someone to bet a less than even horse.
Race 3
4 FIRST MASUMUNE- Hawthorne shipper here off from a 8 week layoff give or take, with a pretty good workout pattern to help with form. Times were not great, but that does not always tell a picture. Haran is profitable off layoffs, so he knows how to have his entries ready. I like that the horse has only ran 10 times and has won 3 times. This race is a logical spot considering where it ran at Hawthorne. This race could be too fast early for him, but at 15-1 ML, I will swing.
5 DUKES UP- Comes up in class, ever so slightly but this horse looks to be coming in on good form and fits well here. The distance was a success last out, even with a less than perfect trip from Baze. Adds some weight today, but I am ok with it considering the resume here. De La Cruz aboard knows the track and should be able to sit back in the first group behind the leaders not rushing up early for a clean trip.
8 POPULAR KID- It’s unfortunate how short this horse looks to be with a 5-2 ML. Garcia takes the reins for a second time after a clear win last out. Was getting beat up a little in California and was brought here and seemed to like the change in scenery. I would have liked to see some works after that race, at least one to feel better, so given the price, this horse will be third choice today.
Race 4
7 LIL’FANCY- Has been sitting off the pace in each start, and figures to be able to do that again today. First time going route distance, but pedigree could be ok for the stretch out. I would like to see a bit better break and will need it to get into a good spot with De La Cruz. No works posted, so the gate work is a bit off putting, but at a 12-1 ML could be worth a shot if it holds, as she has matured every time so far.
10 HISSY MISSY- Interesting 3-year-old here making 3rd career start with a solid showing last out at 2 turns. With scratches could get inside a little but will have to overcome traffic to win. Didn’t seem too bothered by it last out with a wide move to get up for place. De La Cruz going elsewhere is a concern as Loveberry hasn’t had the success he enjoyed at Hawthorne. I won’t take less than 3-1 on this one.
9 TOO PRETTY- Lost to a couple decent horses but no one else in that field has won since coming back. Hard to gauge what that effort was after the winter off considering but will probably end up too short to be a top pick for me.
Race 5
7 C P QUALITY- Slight drop here for this Tim Martin entry, after what is probably a couple of poor performances at Oaklawn this year. Could be a spot to either dump the horse or try to pay some bills, as with almost 30 days since last start, there were other options, I think. Probably gets to be too short for a win bet for me considering the way the recent form has gone though, if playing horizontals probably has to be included.
10 KALLISTE ROSE- Interesting spot here. Amoss claims and immediately moves up in company. She was winning at the lower level, but he must see something here. He’s decent off the claim and with Talamo aboard this could be a good combination. At this ML, I think shes just as good as the 9 at a much shorter price.
9 AS FAST AS YOU CAN- The combination of Asmussen and Santana returns here, and horse is probably the most logical winner here. If I want to raise my winning percentage, I should take this horse, but 7-2 ML would be good price, the 9-5 that’s logical would not be.
Race 6
7 HOUSE DRUNK- I just like the name of this horse. That is all let’s move on. Horse is short on the ML but this is a field of what seems to be career losers. Nothing fancy in this field but a logical step forward here, could find the winners circle.
4 GOLDEN LILY- in 3 career starts has been decent but seems like he could be figuring things out. Not too excited to back a Riecken horse considering but sometimes things just jump out at you.
Race 7
3 BELEWS GOLD- First time facing winners, which I normally hate, but that was a pretty impressive win including the runout. Could be well placed early with Mojica aboard, and a few decent workouts makes me think he can run today. Pedigree and Keeneland sales price tell me I am not the only one that thinks that. Englehart has been lightly running but winning 13%- he knows how to place horses and I think BELEWS GOLD is a challenger today.
2 CYRIL’S BOY- Won in debut and then went to the turf for an okay showing at best being bumped and then really wide in an attempt to make a bid. Comes back to dirt now, which would obviously prefer, and should be able to sit a trip. If Vazquez shows patience today…..
5 SYCAMORE RUN- Horse has to come here to get some class relief, I kid but a nice winner last out for Garcia and Sharp after a disappointing Lecomte Stakes showing. Confidence is high in this colt and rightfully so. Garcia showed he knew how to pace this horse a bit better than Beschizza did, and I think it ill help. If Echo Town flops, the 2nd most logical horse on the day.
Race 8
7 REMEMBERING RITA- Horse wired last out at 1 1/8 mile and showed no signs of slowing down. The added distance today should not be a problem, but the tote board may present issues. Stands to be short given that dominating win last month.
3 RATED R SUPERSTAR- Recent form is sketchy at best, but now comes third from the layoff, increasing distance once again. Horse is a closer and should benefit from a little longer race, if De La Cruz can stay just a bit closer than the last 2 efforts. Going to present a lot of value but if the 2 or 6 pressure REMEMBERING RITA, may be in a perfect spot to come flying up the rail.
6 KURILOV- Brad Cox sends him out and is winning at 23% this year. Gets a bit of a weight allowance today which could help with the speed. Has to stay close to REMEMBERING RITA to stay interested and be able to kick late. Also 3rd from the layoff here coupled with a horse for course type situation as KURILOV has never been beaten at Oaklawn.
Race 9
4 GUMWRAPPER- 3rd career start and would not be unreasonable to expect a step forward in the 2nd start from the layoff. Logical spot here with Talamo aboard. Deville does not have a huge barn, as this is the 9th start of the year. He must position his horses well to win, and this makes a lot of sense. Stamina builder last out, now at a price, could finish rather than fade at a healthy ML price.
14 VAYA CON DIOS- Played this horse last out for the Daily Gallop and we see how that worked out. 7th attempt to break maiden and has a horrible post spot. Perhaps some scratches get this horse closer so does not have to go wide and travel so much.
11 THE BIG BLUFF- Comes from a layoff in 3rd career start for Steve Hobby. He’s winning at 38% with his small barn but chooses to put Martin Garcia aboard. He wanted the good jockey and he has him. Workouts look like the winter was decent for this colt and seemed to have matured nicely. Good chance they try and stalk and press the pace and make a move in the turn.