Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski here for Friday at Oaklawn Park! Last week’s top selections were tough- only 22% winners, second choices fared much better but that’s not how we play this game! Unfortunately, couldn’t even get a pick 3 home, which doesn’t happen too often. Let’s get it back this week and get back to profitability. For these selections they are rated from top to bottom.
Last week: 9-2-2-2 22.2% (6/9 ITM) ($18 wagered, $11.40 returned net -$6.6) $1.29 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Oaklawn 2020: 9-2-2-2 22.2% (6/9 ITM) ($18 wagered, $11.40 returned) net -$6.6) $1.29 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer-
Race 1
8 TAPITOR- All things say I should not bet this horse. Shipping from Delta, Robert Diodoro has not exactly been on fire lately nor has Orland Mojica, but I think I like this spot at what should be a good price. Horse is heavy today, but has won carrying this weight before, and has some of the better speed figures in the field overall. Last out horse was solid on slop, so a return to fast might be our downfall. Worth a shot at 12/1. Not the most logical winner but would hate to lose at this price. Not sure if the pace is fast enough for this horse to win into, but it’s a shot I am willing to take.
3 RED AGAIN- Horse liked Oaklawn in 2019, and returns for the first time. Interesting enough the horse has not won since leaving so this could be a horse for course type play. Should be noted horse is coming off a layoff, with an ok workout pattern but Aaron Shorter is 1:4 the last year in this situation and does decent with dirt routers. Really hoping this horse doesn’t get bet too heavily.
4 KENZOU’S RHYTHM- Not the best last out, but I can probably excuse that, as the horse ran pretty slowly early, not as usual with a good kick. I am willing to consider the Peter Eurton shipper with Tyler Baze aboard here. Trying to understand the move from California here and I would probably make this my top pick.
Race 2
9 LIL RESPECT- What a layoff this horse is coming off from, and an interesting placement for Sadler choosing dirt for the career turfer. I want to like this horse, considering the field is not impressive. If we can get the right pace setup and this horse stalks with a patient Santana Jr. aboard I believe the horse can win. I believe we should get about the ML maybe a little higher.
10 SAVVY SPENDER- Adds blinkers today for Karl Broberg, which is interesting as the last few out horse has ran from off the pace. I believe the 4 8 can keep this pace honest and give this horse something to get into.
12 TRACI’S GREELEY- This horse is a career loser, and one to watch out for. On paper this horse fits so well, but the horse has dropped class 3 times in last 5 races. I cannot on good faith put money on this horse- so I will let it beat me today.
Race 3
7 TIZANILLUSION- This horse will give us a decent price as we have to go a year back in the PPs to find some dirt form, but- they were winners. Horse is 2:3 on dirt and has a nice juicy morning line. I like Vazquez on the mount here and should give us a good price for action. This could be a lone speed situation if the break goes our way- I don’t expect it but…
2 CP QUALITY- This horse is probably the winner. I should bet this horse, but because of the 2/1 ML and what I expect to be < Even at post, I will not recommend it. This could be why my column is different, this is an easy horse to say take it and move on, but I want you to understand the value of the bet as well as finding good horses. This horse likes to come from off the pace, and will need help today at a price far too short.
3 EURODEVILWOMAN- This Broberg entry fits really well here, won last out after a decent layoff and comes to a pretty sizable move up today. If this horse goes off anywhere near the ML. Horse is similar to the 2 and will need to come from off the pace, but could be a better price.
Race 4
13 DICHOTOMY- If this mare draws in- it’s a must watch. Horse prefers a solid stalking pace and should be able to let it happen inside of her and get a good trip. The outside has been ok on opening weekend at Oaklawn and if that continues, Talamo, should have the horse ready to go.
10 ISABELLE’S JOY- My affection for Chicagoland shippers comes through here again. Brian Williamson ships this mare down from Hawthorne where she ran a good 2nd place. Horse needs the lead and should be able to get it here. At a 10/1 ML I believe that Ezequiel Lara will be able to save some horse for the stretch and bring us a good price.
7 M and M GIRL- Oh this layoff is tricky for me, especially with the shipping from Emerald Downs. I really like the horse and think the horse fits in well with this field but I cannot back Michael Puhich on this layoff and shipper angle.
Race 5
What a race here- bunch of first timers, so, let’s have some fun. This field is probably easier to narrow down that a lot- considering the pedigrees are poor for first time starters as a whole with a lot being about 2-3% winners.
2 CHOCTAW CHARLIE- If the trainer was different here, I am probably excited, decent workouts and in limited sample size sire of Laurie’s Rocket is winning 3/8 times, but couple that with the dam Robin My Girl and I think we have a good shot. 5/1 ML will probably get bet down.
12 LORI’S EYES- Half-sister to CHOCTAW CHARLIE but trained and owned by William Martin. Horse has also been working out well, but William Martin is 0/15 with first time starters in the last 365 days. Not sure how I can comfortably back that stat, but it should say a lot about the field when I still land here as a contender.
8 TURNSTONE- Horse comes now for 3rd start, 2nd time on the dirt, and cutting back distance. Considering in September the horse needed the extra distance to get up for a place, it is an odd move, but 90 days is a long time for a 3 year old filly to improve. Of the horses that have ran this horse appears to be the best, but at a 5/2 ML is hard to make a top selection today. Probably a must use in horizontals.
Race 6
11 TOUCH OF DISNEY- Remember I said I like Chicago shippers because well, I am biased- this horse rightfully gets a lot of my attention. On paper, this horse has the speed to win and fits on the pace scenario very well. Should be forwardly placed and be able to get a good trip. Gelding was improving ever start until November and rank a clunker at Hawthorne, nice lay off, not a great workout line- if this horse can stay about 3-1 I think the value here is outstanding.
14 ACADEMY BAY- Karl Broberg has this horse coming in from the Remington and Delta, logically this is a step up in class slightly even at this $6250 level. This horse feels like a cheap speed horse, and in a race with a lot of early speed, can this horse finish is the big question.
8 PARK RIDGE BENNY- John Ortiz has been getting better every month and has been ok with horses from layoffs and off of claims. Unfortunately for John since being claimed the race has not ran back to its best. Ability seems to be there, and after the layoff perhaps the horse comes out and competes today.
Race 7
2 FRA MAURO- Steve Asmussen has been hot lately and this horse fits on the pace. What I am concerned about is Ricardo Santana Jr getting caught up in this early pace. If he can sit the pocket trip the horse can win. Last out appeared to get caught up in a hot pace and couldn’t finish. At 8/1 ML for a hot trainer, we can take a shot.
8 SOLOMONIC- Aaron Shorter has this horse coming in from Churchill after a decent effort. I think Ramon Vazquez tries to sit close to the lead, and the horse seems to have a decent finishing kick. As long as traffic is not an issue, should be able to get a good late run.
6 JAY VEE BEE- Horse won last out- so today is first time facing winners. I have made my feelings clear about that, but actually ran decent in losses, and has been on the board in 5/6 races. The horse is probably well intended, at a 12/1 ML. The negatives though- carries weight today, 125LBS!!! How can I give a presser that much hope giving up almost 9lbs to some horses? If he can win, horse will really be impressive.
HOME RUN TRICK might be the best if drawing in, condition is a question mark- so a horse coming off a 273 day layoff, with works about every 10 days, for a trainer not great off a layoff- I will try to beat here.
Race 8
Before my picks- Lone Sailor- is going to be short, and on paper is huge today. I don’t understand how this gelding comes in here for a tag. Workout pattern is not good, and with the questions, I will let this horse beat me today.
2 DRIFTING WEST- 15/1 ML and with the 3 and 4 in this race should stay at a decent price. Has won with Quinonez aboard and has been good since the venture into G3 stakes in September. Might need some help but if Lone Sailor cannot get this job done- it could change the whole race and this pocket trip horse could benefit.
10 CROATIAN- Should be close to the lead here, won last out in about the same company. Has the speed to do it, and I believe this horse is the leader at the ½. Run some soft fractions, horse has been able to finish.
4 DUELING- I have bet this horse often, every time I fall victim to the jockey/trainer combination. Will be forwardly placed, the question is, does this horse have “the quicken” to get going when undoubtedly the 5 or 10 are there. At 5/1 ML maybe we take a shot. Martin Garcia is finding his place at Oaklawn and this would be a good winner for him.
Race 9
4 FIRE CORAL- 2nd time starter for Asmussen and the horse looked good first time out. Stands to improve and has a GIANT pedigree to see where the ceiling is. Horse will be short priced, but I think takes another step forward today and wins.
1 GLAMOUR GIRL- Big price here and will be sitting off the pace. I do not see this race breaking down, but if it does with an apprentice jockey aboard, anything is possible. It should be noted that Kelsi Harr has been very profitable when riding for J.L Jones. Couple the workouts with the weight allowance and we may see the best yet from this filly.
6 LADY MCKENZIE- I went back and forth between the 6 and 10 here for my 3rd choice, so we will know who wins now….but despite the effort last out, connections are keeping this horse at the same level. Jon Court stays aboard, and this selection might be a pace play. Doesn’t look like much speed inside of this filly, so should be able to have a comfortable start. In a race that there is a question who really wants the lead- this horse could benefit. The PPs are nothing special here, but in the right scenario- could benefit.