Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski here for Friday at Oaklawn Park! It’s exciting to get this card handicapped and get back to a fan favorite track for the winter! My approach to handicapping a card is usually for Win/Place wagers for the most logical horse with odds driving my decisions. Side note for me- Usually I hate betting below 2-1 unless the horse is far and away the best on paper, so my record will show some losses but at the end of the day ROI is what I want- show me the money! I don’t chase winners, I chase profit! For these selections they are rated from top to bottom.
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer- I’d love to hear feedback or comments on your thoughts on the races!
Race 1
5 ON PATROL- Coming off a layoff with Martin Garcia aboard. Thomas Vance has been good after the layoff and this horse is going to be a price. With the workout pattern, I think we have a great shot at 10-1 ML. From what I can tell after the last layoff, horse didn’t run the best, but did not enter with the same workout pattern. Worth a shot here at a good price if neither of the favorites fire.
1A HINTON- This horse is probably the best in the field- unfortunately for us, this horse is going to be so short. With a ML of 9/5 I think I can try and beat with the 7. I don’t this this horse towers over the 7 as much as the ML tells us. Last out at Delta was close to career best not much room for improvement.
7 MOMENT- Hopefully we can catch a good price on this horse. Since being claimed as ran decent but nothing crazy like did at Indiana Grand- if the 1A is not ready for today, Brad Cox will have this horse ready to go. Solid works pattern from the small layoff-
Race 2
7 PRIMARY PAULA-If this horse comes off the layoff well, going to be tough to beat. De La Cruz is good on the mount for McBride and is a serious contender today. Good workouts and should break the maiden today.
6 WILLOW MOON- Horse ran well at Hawthorne and ships here for Ingrid Mason. She’s profitable with this angle, and horse is in a good form. Horse has only ever been ridden by Julio Felix, so there’s a familiarity here. Hopefully the horse can save a little from the pace early and finish today.
11 LANEYS LOVE- If this pace melts down, this is the horse I want. Price should stay high for this Tim Dixon entry with Thompson aboard. Career loser though, so hard to think today is the day without help from the early speedsters.
Race 3
6 MIRACLE MARCH- Sadler entry with Ramon Vazquez aboard. Comes in from California spending most of the career against better than what today offers. If horse matches last effort, should win easy. Best efforts have been at route distances, and today is no different.
3 HYNDFORD- Horse spent most of late 2019 improving form, and if can run back to one of those numbers, figures to be tough today. It is possible we see a lone speed here for the 3, which could prove interesting at a price (see note on 7)
7 GRAY PHANTOM- If this horse takes to dirt like it did the artificial at Woodbine, could be a challenger today. Adds blinkers today for the first time, which is interesting, perhaps they see the race shaping up the same as I do and send earlier than usual. Could be something to watch for and see what trainers are looking for. Even if not betting this horse- learn from why they are adding blinkers and what the instructions are to the jockey from the connections.
Race 4
9 HUNT THE FRONT- Horse didn’t like the slop at Churchill last out, so I can excuse that effort. 2 Back at Aqueduct, horse ran well even after hitting the gate. 5/1 ML let’s get it home for Nick Zito!
6 STOCK DEAL- Firster for Lukas here from Curlin. Overall I think the horses in this race that have ran are a little weak for this level, and will take a shot on a horse with decent workouts. If you are newer and don’t understand PAR times or PAR Speed Figs, they are helpful in understanding what a normal horse at a certain class level at a certain track is expected to run. It can be realy useful in determining if a first time starter has a real shot against experienced horses.
2 RIP IT RYAN- Delong doesn’t send to Oaklawn from Hawthorne but he puts the leading jockey from Hawthorne aboard. Horse has been close to breaking maiden last 2 out, and a decent ML today could give us a price. Truth is this feels like a step up in competition and the tote will reflect. Hawthorne in December is definitely not Oaklawn in January.
Race 5
2 LEWYS VAPORIZER- Horse ran well in the summer but did not perform well off of layoffs over the fall. Ran 20 days ago, and it really was a good race just losing in the stretch. Joe Talamo today with the minor class drop (if we can call it that). Horse is going to be short and rightfully so I believe.
13 CHIEF OF STAFF- If this horse draws in, I am excited at an 8/1 ML. Horse has been running well this fall although that’s at Remington Park. Another small step forward and this horse can look good today. (Oaklawn is different, in the summer if I saw a Remington shipper I would be cautious, but Oaklawn brings in so many horses from so many different tracks, it’s not always a bad thing)
6 FLIGHT TIME- Claimed last out by Asmussen Owner/Trainer, which is usually a decent sign. Ricardo Santana Jr. on the mount. Horse has not been impressive since coming to the US but looked better last out. If this horse can fire on the dirt and sit just off the lead, could get first run if it falls apart. Perhaps Asmussen saw something easy to fix.
Race 6
4 INSTIGATED- This 3 year old has improved every start, but slow and gradually. Another step today and the horse finds the winner circle. McKnight, decent off the claim, worth the 8/1 shot for me. Not the most likely winner but at this price tag, a risk I am willing to take.
6 DESCENT- Stays in about the same class as previous 2 starts, the switch to Tyler Gaffalione is a good one in my mind, coming in today on 3rd career start and seems like could win this easy with just natural progression. Has the pedigree to be competitive and the trainer to boot.
7 LIDO LEGACY- Comes in off a layoff but was decent on dirt at Keeneland in the fall. Hard to not take this horse and run with it, but I do expect it to be short. Speightstown- with Ghostzapper on the dam side, this horse is meant to run.
Race 7
11 GORDY FLORIDA- Long layoff here but horse has been good for a while. Going from speed figures he towers over the field along with the 2. Decent workouts coming into here, so not too worried about conditioning. Lots of races on the board and comes down in company- Hope we get the 8/1 line here.
2 NERO – Layoff scares me but this horse is fast. Interesting spot for the horse from the layoff but did decent off them before. The other angle that is weird, is how often do we see a 5 year old horse improving every start? We don’t, so theres a logical bounce coming.
8 SPIKES SHIRL- I don’t really like any other horses in this field, but want to give 3. Apparently this race I am going with the layoff angle- and what the heck- 440 days why not! 15/1 ML- we never know do we? It is Oaklawn, it can happen!
7 AWESOME ANYWHERE- Hollendorfer entry here with Talamo aboard peaks my interest until I dive deeper. Ran well in October 18, then not much. Huge layoff over summer of 2019, before going back to Delmar. I want to think this horse can win here, but not convinced- with the racing timeline or the workout pattern. This a 9/2 ML horse I probably try to beat and if beats me, I walk away and feel good because there’s too many questions. If this horse drifted up to 7-1 or something crazy, then it would be worth another look perhaps.
Race 8
7 SHOPLIFTED- I think this horse sits the perfect pressing trip and wins. Really took a step forward in December at Remington Park in the Springboard. I think this is a tougher test, but no reason to not like the horse other than the tote.
6 GOLD STREET- I don’t know what to think of the jockey shuffle for Steve Asmussen with Martin getting this mount. I like the horse, but think that after winning twice as a favorite with SantanaJr it’s a peculiar switch. Horse took a step back last out, so not too sure what to expect here.
3 SHARED SENSE- We haven’t seen this horse for 2 months, so expect some improvement naturally here, even can excuse last out in the slop. Flo Geroux with the mount which I know some people do not like, but in this colony he is going to be tough and ready to go. Add in weight and this horse is dangerous.
Race 9
Let’s get crazy on the nightcap!!!
9 MOORAC- James DiVito entry with De La Cruz aboard. I don’t usually take horses facing winners for the first time, let alone jump up in class. Send this horse, let it go…..don’t look back. Chances are I lose this race to the favorite, but I expect the following 2 horses to be way too short for me personally, and the last race of the day, we should be profitable by now for a shot.
4 BLACK KAT TAPS- Excited to see the first start of the 3 year old year here. This filly has been constantly getting better, but will be too short for a win bet for me. Joe Talamo joins Joe Sharp here and with so much cheap speed, could have the perfect set up.
12 KISS THE GIRL- Strong horse- ML of 8/5 and I don’t know if we can beat this horse. That’s why I am trying to.
NOTE- Race 9 is a great example, the 12 is strong but at the 8/5 ML, good chance can be a lot shorter. If you’re looking for ROI playing against this horse or skipping the race isn’t a bad idea. -$2 is ok, but if this 9 runs, maybe I go up $22 for $2. For cash betting- I either play this 9 or 4 depending on odds or pass this race.