Little different this week as I will break down my thoughts on the early and late Pick 4s from Oaklawn. We’ve seen some pretty big payouts over the past couple of weeks and maybe we can snag one here today!
Early Pick4:
Race 1 – SINGLE #5 Diamondmaze
The only horse that I’ll use is the #5 Diamondmaze at 10/1 on the ML. Insane right? What is interesting about this horse is the fact that this gelding is the only one who wants to show early speed. I know, I know… this horse has faded worse then anything you’ve ever seen BUT Terry Thompson gets his first chance on him now 2nd after the claim where Kenny Smith is 27%.
NOTE: we have a work noted on 2/16 where this one worked 4f :48.2
Race 2 – ALL
In a race for maiden 3yo going 6f on the dirt who are in for the claiming price of 40k, I was lost. Rightful favorite for the rail who rallied to just lose by 1 1/2 lengths against 30k company? I don’t know. I think speed will do well today and with that being said, this one might be up against it. My top selection is the #8 Pop’s Classic Ride 10/1. Villafranco has this one 2nd time off the layoff after never being a factor last out here at OP when was in for 20k. So why this runner? In debut at RP, this one was on the pace and fought all the way through the lane just losing by 3/4 of a length. I think from the outside, Vazquez will send (who is winning 31% of mounts for Villafranco over last 60 days) and they’ll have to run this one down. As for the FTS in here, a lot of ways to go. Catalano has been on fire lately, Dams of #3 More Than Stature and #7 Trail Boss have high success rates. Just click ALL so we don’t get bounced on something goofy.
Race 3 – #1 Strong Side 8/5 ; #7 Southsider 6/1
I’m just taking the two horses with speed. #7 Southsider needed freshening off the 3 month layoff last out where he showed speed and faded against better. Gets class relief today and shouldn’t have to go :21.4 to be on the lead today. #1 Strong Side is coming in off a near 3 month layoff but will also get a sizable class drop here for Diodoro who when teamed up with Cohen have won 5 times in their last 14 runners. The race should set up well for a runner that will be leading the 2nd flight and will get first run at them as they turn for home.
Race 4 –
Small tickets: #3 Banker Nita 4/1 ; #5 Tiger Bait 5/1 ; #10 Rocket First 12/1 ; #11 Tommie Trucker 8/1
Big Tickets: ALL
These Arkansas bred MC races are just brutal. My top selection is #5 Tiger Bait at 5/1 on the ML. This FTS for Broberg comes from a dam that has had 5 winners from 9 starters and a stakes winner. This filly out of Oxbow has a slew of works on the tab which include a nice 4f drill on 2/17 in :49.2 from the gate. Broberg for the most part spots horses well and this one is no different. Others I’d include on a smaller ticket are #3 Banker Nita who’s another FTS’er in here, this one for Kenny Smith. Draws the rail in here which has been winning at a nice 19% clip. You also have to like the fact that this one also comes from a dam that has had 3 winners from 4 starters and a stakes winner but perhaps most importantly… there is a chance the track could be muddy/wet again and there won’t be a horse with better off track pedigree then this one. Wouldn’t be surprised if this one doesn’t go off as a heavy favorite. #10 Rocket First 12/1 is the “unknown” factor in here for me. Very few people will include this runner but what I really like is the capability of a trainer/owner who like cashing checks. Although, Timothy Martin only wins at an 8% clip, they are ITM 33% of the time, a lot of those being quite long shots. Martin was able to snag a capable jock (who also likes cashing checks) in Edgar Morales who’s struggling to find mounts so you know he’s hungry. #11 Tommie Trucker is 8/1 on the ML and I wonder how many people will fade this horse because of Quinonez. More than you’d think I’d say. Pish is 20% with FTS’ers, 22% with debut MClmers and 20% overall in MClmers. Tons of work in the AM with gate drills that would make it look like all systems are a go. The issue? The 12 post will be tough to overcome although against a very weak field in here.
Overall, whether its the small ticket at $32 or the big ticket for $88, I really think the return on this early Pick4 could be really nice. My estimation? $800 for .50
Late Pick4:
Race 6 – #5 Lovely Flash 7/2 ; #8 Special Trip 3/1
In this MdnClmer40k for fillies and mares 3yo and upward, I went with the two logical horses. My top selection is #5 Lovely Flash who will relish the monster drop for Larry Jones and Terry Thompson riding. Having been bet down to 5.6/1 against MSW77k, it gives you the inclination that Jones expected a lot out of this runner. In classic Larry Jones form, he loves winning and thus drops this one into a spot where she should be super tough sitting right off the lead. #8 Special Trip needs to be on all tickets at 3/1 on the ML. This one now in the hands of Villafranco, I think you will see monster improvement from this one in start one off the layoff. Speed figures and class tower over this field and now the cut back could be a red flag for some but I trust Villafranco and he puts his man Vazquez in the irons.
Race 7 –
Small tickets: #3 Imperatore 5/2 ; #5 Iter 8/1 ; #8 Colonel Pike 15/1
Big tickets: ALL
In perhaps the most bizarre race of the late sequence, its bombs away for me. My top selection is the second longest shot on the ML and that’s the #8 Colonel Pike at 15/1. Yes, the Zia Park shipper getting the check mark for me. Although on the cover the speed figures just done seem to match, Zia, Alb and Sunland are noticeably slower tracks, thus slower return numbers. With all the speed in this race I’ll take the runner who has closing ability without having to come from way out of it. #3 Imperatore is 5/2 on the ML for Diodoro who gets his man Cohen in the irons. This one has struggled a little lately but M and M Racing has made the switch from Gullo back to Diodoro who previously trained this one back in March-August of 2018. Should be tough and will be close to the lead. #5 Iter could be the common “ugh that was the next horse I was gonna use”. Ingrid Mason gets Jermaine Bridgmohan in the irons where they’ve won 20% over the last 60 days. You can’t deny the fact that this horse is 6-3-2-0 at OP, 3-1-1-1 on an OFF going and 11-3-2-1 at the distance. Perhaps cheaper than the top contenders in here BUT the return to top jock for trainer, favorite track, favorite distance could be the recipe for success.
Race 8 –
Small tickets: #5 Smellin Candy 10/1 ; #6 Gustka Mon Shoes 9/5 ; #10 Rock City Roadhog 9/2
Big tickets: ALL
Good luck! I really don’t know what else to say about this race. Is the #6 Gustka Mon Shoes the one to beat in here? No question. Now 2nd off the layoff, an improve should be incoming but who’s gonna be on the lead? This runner was parked on the far outside last out and didn’t get off to the best of starts but Vazquez made a bold move 5w to get the job done last out. This one is known for coming off the pace and I just don’t see the set up in here unless Villafranco gives the go to Vazquez and perhaps they try and put away this field early and often. #5 Smellin Candy is my top selection at 10/1. This level could prove to be a little much but the way this horse had been improving nearly a year ago when last seen, IF FRESH off the near year layoff for Tammy Hornsby, why not? Horse has tactical speed and with no dead speed signed on, maybe Tammy gives the nod to Roman to send and see what happens from there. #10 Rock City Roadhog has big chance in here coming off a win against state bred Alw8000 level where Loveberry was aggressive and put away that field early on a speed biased day. If an improve off the 87 speed figure last out is imminent, this one will be close when they cross the line.
Race 9 –
Small tickets: #1 Meetme At d’Street 15/1 ; #7 Midnight Shine 9/2 ; #9 Stephen’s Answer 8/1
Big tickets: #1 Meetme At d’Street 15/1
To close it all out on this Friday card here at OP, its possible that I’ll be ALL IN on the #1 Meetme at d’Street at 15/1 on the ML. LONE SPEED ALERT!!!!!! If you want to hit big tickets, these are the stands you have to take sometimes. Look, I won’t deny that this runner has been horrible at OP. As a matter of fact, this one has been beaten by 64 lengths in the 3 starts at the track. During that time the ownership was having issues on who they wanted to train the horse and you can see the response from the horse was very uninterested. Having switched back to Holthus this runner faded badly last out off long layoff. Now, freshened, 2nd off layoff with a work on 2/17 going 3f :37 as a freshener in between, I think we could get a lifetime best performance from this one at a number around 35/1. #7 Midnight Shine is a running first off the claim for Broberg at 9/2 on the ML. Claimed on 2/1 for 6250, Broberg moves this one to the 8k NW level where this one should well spotted. The combo of Cohen/Broberg has been tough of recent and a lot of their winners are winners running off the screen. #9 Stephen’s Answer is one I just didn’t want to leave off a ticket that I go deeper then just the rail runner. Sitting at 8/1 on the ML for William Martin, this one will love the drop from the open 8k level to now this NW level. 2nd off the layoff you should see an improve off the performance (which wasn’t bad mind you at 30/1), finishing 4th against better. Will be sitting (perhaps leading) the chase pack behind the rail runner which could be super important in here as he’ll get first jump on the rest. De La Cruz has been a capable jock, especially with Martin runners winning 14% over last 60 days with ROI of +$2.57.
This late ticket could be insane. Another $11,000-$15,000 payout? Perhaps. Could it pay $200? I don’t think so. The small ticket for $27 gives multiple runners in each race with a price(s) in every race besides the first leg. The big ticket could be how you hit a lifetime high score if we can sneak through the skinny first leg then BOMB, BOMB next two and we single a horse we expect to be 35/1? For $80, the payoff, if hit will be well worth investment but its definitely high risk, high reward.
I wish everybody the best of luck today at OP if you are playing. Please follow along with me @DaVilleKY32 on Twitter today. If perhaps there are scratches/changes, tickets might be adjusted accordingly. Good luck everybody!