Oaklawn Park Racing Analysis — Friday, February 21, 2020, by Bryan Doranski

Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski here for Friday at Oaklawn Park!  Man this has been a little frustrating lately, Can’t string it together and within half lengths of some great days!  The grind continues this week and see what happens next. This is a long game coupling that with Oaklawn and it is definitely a grind for the track that is the premier track for the winter!

Last Week ago: 9-2-3-0 22.2% (5/9 ITM) ($18 wagered, $13.00 returned net -$5.00) $1.44 ROI on $2 Win Bets   

Oaklawn 2020: 27-6-7-3 22.2% (16/27 ITM) ($54 wagered, $38.00 returned) net -$16.00) $1.40 ROI on $2 Win Bets   

Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer- 

Race 1

2 BIG SPORT- This Ingrid Mason gelding is lightly raced compared to the rest in the field and has won 3 times.  In a horse that has matured making 2nd start as a 4 year old, not crazy to think that there’s a chance to see another step forward.  Close to a career best last out, but perhaps another small step here wins today.

9 ACADEMY BAY- Comes back on short rest for Broberg here but at a 6/1 ML I like the price decently enough.  

Race 2

1 LOOKING FOR EIGHT- well here’s 8.5 F so perhaps this is a sign.  All kidding aside I think there is a lot of early pace here and the 1 could get a nice pace to run into for David Cohen.  Comes in on what is probably the best pattern in the field and if we can get close to the ML I will be happy.

3 KURILOV- Chalky horse here and stands to stay that way for Brad Cox today.  Talamo could keep this horse off the pace enough to avoid fast early times and finish well, but it is always a question mark, especially for a horse that likes to be close early.

7 HARDLY A SECRET- De La Cruz aboard this gelding for Chris Hartman, and this horse likes to win, 9/32 lifetime and in the money 20 times.  Can excuse last out from the layoff with a horrible work pattern, typical horse needed the race situation.  

Race 3

1 ADHERETOME- I’m not sure how this horse does not get on the lead here with not much early speed here.  Think this race is one for Lara to walk away with and I am not even looking anywhere else today. Probably regret it but, sometimes you see a horse that fits that has no excuse.  

Race 4

So last race was a short and sweet one, but this feels likes it could bring a price.  

12 WORLD- With that said I make the ML favorite my top pick- apparently I’m a glutton for punishment and this explains why I am only hitting at 22%- ugh…Asmussen horse here with Santana aboard.  Was ok from the layoff and then went to a turf sprint for some reason. Had some great efforts in 2018, if this 4 year old can get back to a good form, watch out from the outside

3 PEWTER- Making the 6th start with an apprentice jockey could bode well.  Horse has shown some early pace pressure and with a few lbs. could benefit and be able to finish today.  Another step forward is logical and at a 10/1 ML one I cannot pass up.

7 SEEK N JUSTICE- I am not going to use this horse but with a better trainer I would.  I went back and forth a few times, but I think this horse gets bet down and I don’t want much action here to this Nevada Litfin entry.  

Race 5

This race feels like bombs away again and there is a good chance I will be playing a double into this leg. 

9 DEVILS HALO- Come outside of the box with me, appears to be the best pedigree in the field, good jockey.  Couple that with a good form pattern and some back class, and I like this horse and love it at 15/1 ML. Not the best workouts but there are too many positives for me to pass up today.

7 MILLWOOD- If you are tired of reading on me picking Ingrid Mason entries with Baze aboard, imagine how I feel typing them up for you.  Best part- WE ARENT WINNING WITH THEM!! I don’t think this horse can finish the race in front but not a ton of speed here, so perhaps today is the day this duo can sneak one in.

12 ITALIAN CHARM- Diodoro has been on fire, and if this horse fit a bit better I would be all over it.  As I said on the 7 MILLWOOD- not a lot of speed today, so I think the 12 might be fighting a running style vs. pace scenario.  At a short price I cannot put a win bet here.  

Race 6

8 VAYA CON DIOS- For the same reasons last race for Diodoro I will take this horse.  Horse is an early runner, and has shown speed in previous races. 5/2 ML and good chance this horse is way shorter!    Just take the winnings and move on.

1 ACE GILFORD- Like the pedigree here from Tale of the Cat and Von Hemel is winning 26% with first time starters!  Profitable angles with 1st timers, Lasix, maiden claimers you name it and Donnie is making money. Luis Quinonez aboard who is winning 19% this meet and could be in a great spot.  

Race 7 

4 TAPALONG- 3rd career start here for Joe Sharp with Joe Talamo aboard.   Going to take the Joe Connection as this filly looks to step forward from a good 2nd start in December at Fairgrounds.  Nice consistent workout pattern. Good chance she breaks her maiden today with a good clean ride.

6 LAURIEANN- I want to like this filly.  I do, a lot. She’s going to win because I made her my 2nd choice, and to be honest, she could be first.  Hard to separate these 2-If you’re able to watch the tote perhaps that will tell you the story of where to put your money.  Tim Martin isn’t the best at Oaklawn winning only at 4%- so good luck here.

12 SOUTHERN CENTS- If Rocco Jr gets this filly out and clear in her 2nd start- could be very lively at a good price.  Larry Frazee is limited in the last year for stats, but 2nd Lasix from GoldenCents and could be worth a flyer here at 5/1 ML.

Race 8

This race feels pretty chalky and all 3 top choices stand to be short on the tote.  

5 MG WARRIOR- Going to use the trainer as the way to separate these three horses, and give the benefit to Brad Cox and Ricardo Santana Jr.  Since the layoff, horse has not seen a fast surface, and has ran pretty good. Now comes into this spot and if you can call it class relief- I will.  

1 REMEMBERING RITA- Blinkers on today for Doug Anderson and Joe Talamo, so we can figure out the strategy here.  I am not sold on what to think of the horse’s effort last out from the medium layoff, but will be too short to bet for me on a win bet.

6 SHOTGUN KOWBOY- Remington Park shipper coming here, yet again, and it’s been a good career for this gelding.  Fits decently here and as long as Stewart Elliott lets the horse run how he wants, should be on the lead and maybe can finish today.  

Race 9

3 GRIT AND CURIOSITY- Usually hard for me to put money on Jermaine Bridgmohan but he’s 1-1 for Peter Miller, so let’s overvalue that limited data and go all in here.  Huge effort last out and probably a great candidate to bounce and suck today but as the 2nd start of a 4 year old, maybe this is what the horse has in him. Should get a great pace to close into, just question if the horse can stay close enough early. 

7 RULER OF THE NILE- This horse wins, and wins again.  First time for Joe Talamo on this mount and a huge jump up in class makes me weary here.  Could be the best price we have gotten on RULER OF THE NILE in a year or so, so could be worth a shot if price helps us.  

8 SEVEN NATION ARMY- This gelding has won in 7 months or so, and this is not the best spot today.  Horse hasn’t been able to finish the last 3 times out and now moves back up in class- explain this to me.  I will let this horse beat me today!

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