Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski here for Friday at Oaklawn Park! Ok, last week was mixed I would say, as we lost some money but I did give out a nice $43 horse as my 2nd choice which if you played some pick 3s, hit a nice one at $200 – Went 4/5 in the late pick 5 getting beat by a huge 30-1 horse in the finale- that knocked a lot of people out since it paid $42k! Let’s see how this week treats us as we continue on our path!
Side note- I do not keep morning lines on my card while I am capping. I really like it because I do not let my subconscious get skewed by seeing them. As we know from other tracks, morning line manipulation is weird and can really hamper normal handicappers.
Hopefully, the big rains stay away as they are calling for scattered thunderstorms which should be well after our card.
Last Week ago: 10-2-1-2 20% (5/10 ITM) ($20 wagered, $11.40 returned net -$8.60) $1.14 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Oaklawn 2020: 100-19-19-11 19.0% (51/100 ITM) ($200 wagered, $147 returned) net -$53.00) $1.47 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer-
Race 1
5 MISS CASEY BETH- This filly with some early speed in 3 attempts has been in some hot paces, good for closers for the most part- looked decent enough last out against higher class. Gets a weight allowance today and should be able to perform well against lower claimers.
1 DAT GIRL- So it has been a month since this horse ran a dud in March, late bloomer here making only the 5th start overall as a 4 year old. Might need to find a mix of last out and 2 back to see how the pace goes and get a good trip. Birzer needs to be patient and let the race come, nice pressing trip gets the job done.
14 WISH FOR CANDY- If this one draws in, I could be interested. Not huge on Julio Felix on the mount as it seems to be hitting some lame horses. Nice effort last out, and if takes a step forward could break maiden today. No works since last race concerns me- let the price tell a story here if draws in.
.Race 2
1 STURDY ONE- Huge layoff here which is not profitable for Hollendorfer but wins at a decent clip. Workouts have been consistent since Feb, with a layoff in March, which looks like was due to shipping over. Seems to have taken to the course decently enough in the morning, now we see how the afternoon relates. Talamo on the mount is promising if the rail is dead, he should be smart enough to move.
6 SHE’S A DIME- Yes, she is, with a nice pair of races on off tracks in the last month. I am not sure how this horse does today on a fast track, but I am willing to take a shot here and see how she does after the pair of decent off track going. O’Neill is hitting at 22%- horse could be too short for a swing.
7 JOSIE THE E F FIVE- When she won in March, looked good, and then moved up in class, changed jocks and got a fast track and sucked. If she can return to that effort from March- could win today with a good trip.
Race 3
3 ANOTHRDAYATTHELAKE- On again/off again horse here who if continues that pattern will flop today. Having a weight allowance and Mojica aboard, I will watch intently and hope for the best. Versus this field with a Beyer par of 66, may not need a best effort to win today.
10 BOOKIE’S BLUES- Lackluster effort last out, in a race that probably did not give the early runners much advantage. Stands to be out front early and get a good trip. Should not have a problem getting over from the post as only the 4 really seems to get in the way of the lead. If can control some softer fractions a tad, could leave some in the tank to finish.
4 DEALIN’STELEN- Nick Zito……and this is what we get. Much like BOOKIE’S BLUES, has faced quick fractions in the last two outings. Has the pedigree to be a winner and is 1/3 at Oaklawn Park. Not my top choice, but a must use in protection in some horizontals.
Race 4
9 OPERATIC- Making this my first choice most for reasons you will see below on the others. This race should have enough pace to make taking a closer worthwhile. Want Santana Jr to keep her a little closer than last out and pounce in the lane.
4 INDIAN BELLA- Claimed from DIODORO last out after a huge effort. Timothy Martin hitting at 14% off the claim, but looking at the running lines, that last race feels like an anomaly. She could get out early and just go, but there is enough speed here to keep her honest in my opinion.
8 DUTCH TREAT- Scary stat- William VanMeter is 0% in 9 tries when trying to win consecutive starts. That is an oddity for a trainer who is winning at 27% overall this meet. Huge effort last out that was crazy much the best in a career. Horse has won 3 times in 13 tries at Oaklawn, so she likes it here.
Race 5
2 NEW EAGLE- Mike Maker entry here who has had a rough start to 2020, before taking a lot of time off. Good workout pattern and with the drop back to claiming ranks, from some past graded company, could improve nicely and win today. Both starts in 2020 were very fast paces, perfect for closers giving this front runner a tough go.
3 ARTEMUS EAGLE- The other Maker entry, very well could just be a plodder type if looking at pace numbers alone but does have 2 career wins at higher levels than today. If for some reason NEW EAGLE pushes, a pace that is too fast, this colt could be close in a perfect pressing spot to take the win.
10 PEPPER PIKE- Not a fan of this post spot for the Asmussen entry. Could over some value from that last effort given that disappointing finish. Coming back to dirt now, if we look at that December 21st race, it is possible this gelding will prefer the dirt- and if it is WET- this horse is a must use for sure!
Race 6
5 LOUISE THE LASER- This mare is facing some younger fillies today and her experience could be tough to pass for me. In the money in 3 OAKLAWN starts this year, and when Santana rides for VillaFranco- they are winning at 27% here. Let’s call this race done now.
1 KALLISTE ROSE- I could call it done, and probably will, but to start the late pick 5, I may want to cover myself with this mare. If the rail looks fair in the early portion of the card, I like this here with Talamo on the mount. Slight class drop for her who was been going backwards in every start this year could benefit from this change.
Race 7
4 GOLDEN NOTION- This colt after a huge layoff, could have tired last out and faded late, but it was a pretty fast pace early. 2nd start here. Adds blinkers here, to a horse who is in the money 3 times in 3 tries at Oaklawn.
8 RAGTIME BLUES- Debuted out west last year and looked pretty good and returns with a good workout pattern. Baffert coming in with this nice pedigree horse and probably is the favorite.
1 BACKSHOT- Changed from Baffert to Peter Miller after debut at Del Mar last year. I like the workout pattern and good chance this horse is overlooked with the other two I have above. Takes BLINKERS OFF today and gets a few pounds allowance to consider.
Race 8
3 TRUCK SALESMAN- Some 2020 back class here to consider for this horse who was placed at Meydan in a Grade 3 Sprint. Because of shipping and quarantine issues, only 2 workouts so this could be a conditioning effort today, which causes me pause if the price is too short.
9 JULIUS- Some of these efforts in 2019 really want me to take this horse as a solo and move on. Some huge BEYERS at 1 Mile, now making 2nd start of the year and chooses a sprint spot again. First trip to Oaklawn but Cohen is experienced enough at this track to know how to prevent trouble.
10 MORNING SNOW- This colt has run fast early and faded in a few starts, but at 6 FURLONGS it is not that concerning to me. The weight that he carries is a bit concerning but horses’ best effort can win today. Another concern for me is that this horse was trained by Baffert- and comes to Caldwell. Since then the workouts have been poor and this horse should be a value spot considering Caldwell’s win percentage.
Race 9
5 VOLATILE- Asmussen ships this colt in, with a very nice pedigree for Oaklawn. First start of the 4-year-old campaign, but the workouts have been spot on and consistent. Santana Jr on the mount, so Asmussen comes today with true intentions in the saddle.
1 STRIKE THAT- Again, by now we know how the rail is playing and that will affect this race. Last out this gelding had a perfect speed favoring trip, and with Cohen aboard, should be able to scoot out again. Several speedster’s lineup outside this one, so with a ground saving trip, could have some left in the tank if they prevent traffic issues.
6 HOT SHOT KID- Like VOLATILE, makes first start of 2020, but without the impressive 2 months of workouts. Conditioning concerns me for this gelding combined with a low percentage Jockey and Trainer.
Race 10
1 NO PAROLE-Lackluster effort for this 3-year-old colt in the Rebel Grade 2, but with that field, I am not surprised. That was a very fast pace, that was just too much. Now in a better spot on a cutback to 6F, should not have the same issues.
5 LIAM’S PRIDE- 4 tries at Oaklawn and 2 in the money finishes with 1 win. month since the last race with 2 nice workouts to consider. Need to improve from that March effort but can forgive the effort on the 22nd with that muddy surface. Was progressing nicely since coming to Oaklawn and will include because of what is very likely effort in this horse.
10 HOP KAT- First start in 2020, but the workout pattern is BEA-U-TI-FUL! Desormeaux coming east now. Colt had a good effort in debut at Churchill, and I like the spot here. A lot of early speed today, so the conditioning will be important if this colt is going to win.