Monmouth Park picks: Follow me on twitter jeffbyrnes96
Race 1: CLAIMING $22,000 – $18,000 1 1/16 (Turf)Picks: 4-7-8
Heading Home (#4): Has good record at Monmouth, in the top 3 in five of six starts. Good amount of speed in the race to close into. Trainer is 12% when off more than 90 days. Drops to lowest level claimer in over a year. Must use.
Cara’s Nay Nay (#7): 1st or 2nd in five straight starts. Trainer is 24% in turf starts and is most consistent runner in the field. Good beyer numbers and favorable jockey/trainer combo.
Dangerous Woman (#8): The speed of the field and with to a lot, can take the field a long way. Very consistent at Monmouth Park. Drops from $45,000 to $22,000 today. If not challenged up front, could steal race.
Race 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000 – $18,000 1 1/16 (Dirt)Picks: 2-1-5
Sweet Blame (#2): Drops to maiden claimers for the first time, where the trainer is 33%. Nik Juarez has been riding well lately. A deep closer, this deep drop should fall to her hands, with a good pace up front. Must use.
Flying Pleasantly (#1): Drops back down to $20,000 and goes longest distance of her career. Pedigree suggests distance and surface switch should not be a problem. Angel Suarez is already 21% in the meet. Good spot.
Wanna Be Regal (#5): Goes longest distance of her career and switches back to turf. Should get a good pace setup to close late. Good beyers. Long shot look.
Race 3: CLAIMING $16,000 – $14,000 Six FurlongsPicks: 5-4-3
Foot in the Door (#5): Comes in off wins at Tampa Bay Downs with Jose Ferrer, whose riding at 28%. Good jockey/trainer combo and has plenty of speed. Should improve more second off the layoff.
Spotmeifucan (#4): Drops to the lowest level claiming race of her career. Trainer is 33% when dropping down two classes and 22% shipping. Good works coming in and fast beyers.
Fran’s Warrior (#3): Comes in off a win at Tampa Bay Downs and has worked well at Monmouth. Will be the speed of the field. IF he gets away easy, could steal it on front end.
Race 4: CLAIMING $20,000 – $18,000 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)Picks: 5-7-2
Cape Laa Di Da (5) Consistent throughout her career and drops back to a level she should be comfortable at. Trainer is 14% shipping and picks up Angel Suarez. Will be closing late.
Legacy Park (#7): Drops to sprint level for first time, where trainer is 25%. Won two back going wire to wire, might have to do that again today.
Irish Fix (#2): With Kelly Green for the first time, trainer is 26% with horses first after claim and 29% shipping. Will get good setup front to close late. Good jockey/trainer combo.
Race 5: CLAIMING $10,000 – $9,000 1 1/16 (Dirt)Picks: 4-1-5
Best offer (#4): In the barn of Jorge Navarro for the first time, where he is 24% with first timers and 26% with horses off two months. Will be the likely speed of the field. Navarro thrives in these races, must use.
Browns Gap (#1): Navarro brings this one from Florida and is 35% with horses 2nd time in the barn. From the rail, he should be one of the pacesetters in here. Good jockey trainer combination and will be a force.
Cheddar Chub (#5): Drops back to $10,000 claiming level and will get a good pace to chase form the back. Trainer is 20% in claimers and has three wins at Monmouth. Has good beyers and workout coming in.
Race 6: CLAIMING $40,000 – $35,000 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)Picks: 2-4-5
Frisky Magician (#2): Jason Servis ships in with this gelding first time in his barn, he is 41% after the claim and 35% shipping. Only start at Monmouth was a win and has among best beyer numbers in the field. Must use.
Amelia’s Wild Ride (#4): Has won three of his last six starts and is the richest horse in the field. Trainers 22% with horses 2nd off the layoff. Won’t be surprised if he tries to steal this race on the front end.
Keep Talking (#5): Won by six lengths last time out earning 94 beyer number. Two of his three wins have come at the distance. He can rate or go to the lead. Get Jomar Torres whose 26% on the meet.
Race 7: CLAIMING $7,500 – $6,500 1 Mile and 70 Yards (Dirt)Picks: 3-4-5
Beacos Disco Pants (#3): Comes off dominant win at Delaware Park two weeks ago. With little speed in the race and Monmouth being a speed friendly track. Trainer is 33% in claimer repeats and 24% with last out winners. Must use.
Star Player (#4): Drops from $25,000 to $7,500 and trainer is 34% when dropping two classes. Will need a fast pace to close into. Pedigree suggests the distance shouldn’t be a problem. Use underneath.
Tiz Always His Way (#5): Good speed and good rating. Should fair better against these then in the past. Good jockey aboard, live longshot.
Race 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $30,000: 1 Mile (Turf) Picks: 4-8-11
Conquest Hardcandy (#4): Was 3rd in the G3 Endeavour at Tampa Bay three starts back,and second behind graded stakes winner Fifty Five at Aqueduct last time out. She drops back into allowance company for class relief and to get some confidence back in her. She will get a good pace to run into and class should prevail.
Arch of Troy (#8): Servis ships in with a brand new filly, he is 41% with horses first time in the barn. Has a top 3 finish in seven straight races. Will be close to the pace and if she gets first jump, she can upset.
Frippery (#11): Makes 2019 debut today and has posted sharp workout coming in. Trainer is 31% when 90 days or more off and 26% shipping. Outside post means she will go from the gate. She is two for two at the distance. Must use in exotics.
Race 9: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000 – $18,000 One Mile (Dirt)Picks: 2-4-1
Weld (#2): Makes second start on dirt and goes two turns for firs time on dirt. With his speed he could be the controlling pace. Good jockey/trainer combination.
Subdued (#4): Drops from $30,000 to $20,000 and goes two turns on dirt for the first time. Trainer is 17% with horses first time off the claim. Will be mid pack and come late.
Unbridled Mesa (#1): Drops from $40,000 to $20,000 and gets blinkers for the first time. Trainer is 15% with first time blinkers. Class drop also is a big relief. With a good break, he is a live longshot.
Race 10: $75,000 Politely Stakes 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)Picks: 8-2-1
Mominou (#8): Ships in off a win t Keeneland going the same distance today. She is 2 for 4 at this distance. Trainer is 22% in non graded stakes races and 18% after last race wins. She has high cursing speed and will try to steal it on the front end. Good beyer numbers gives her the edge.
Factorofwon (#2): Ships in from New York with Christophe Clement is 20%. She was a troubled 6th last time out in a stakes at Keeneland. This is a step down in class and should be among the favorites. Good speed and can rate, has many options.
Goldwood (#1): Has good closing speed and has the most consistent beyer numbers in the field. Trainer is 29% when off more than two months and 24% shipping. Good numbers going in, live chance.
Race 11: CLAIMING $12,500 – $10,500 One Mile (Dirt) Picks: 5-4-6
Port Liza (#5): Winner of two in a row and now with Jorge Navarro, who is 24% after the claimer and 48% in claimer repeats. Solid speed figures for this group and consistent. This horse is the class of the field and the best play of the day for me.
Banana Anna (#4): Ships in from Part and gets class relief today. Good speed figures and gets Angel Suarez. Has four wins at Monmouth. Use underneath.
Cold Hearted Pearl (#6): Was a winner at this level four starts back but ships in to face slightly less comment today. 22% is the trainer of beaten favorites. Live longshot.
Race 12: WAIVER CLAIMING $12,500 – $10,500 Six Furlongs Picks: 5-1-4
Taylor’s Belle (#5): Ships up from Florida after winning a maiden 16,000 two back. Drops to $12,500 today and gets class relief. Will be on the lead with little speed from others.
Shimmyshimmy Shake (#1): Drops from $25,000 to $12,500 today and has the rail and options. Trainer is 33% when dropping two classes and 16% shipping. Will be stalking the lead and will pounce turning for home.
Sydney Sweetie (#4): Won last start at Monmouth Park in maiden $10,000 in 2018.Makes first start in nine months. May need the race, but worthy look underneath.