MOBINE MONDAY MARCH 11TH
I’m going to preview the Pick 5 again this week from Mohawk Park and show how to go about structuring my tickets from a wagering standpoint. Hopefully, we don’t go 4 of 5 with a 27-1 in the opener and lose to a favorite later in sequence this week, but if you follow me long enough you’ll see I’m more than capable of doing that again this week . Use your own opinions on the handicapping, I’m just trying to help with some ticket construction. Feel free to comment on Twitter, follow along @legendbets #MobineMonday
PICK 5 TICKET STRUCTURE
RACE 1: IS 7 SINGLE WORTHY? I SAY YES, DESERVING SINGLE AND MOST LIKELY WINNER BY A BUNCH
RACE 2: FADE QUADRANGLE AS THE FAVORITE, USE 234, 3 IS THE “A”
RACE 3: 2 & 7 FOR ME, I’M CONTENT TO LET THE OTHERS BEAT ME IN FAVOR OF A CHANCE AT A PRICE
RACE 4: NO IDEA, 4689 IS WHO I’LL USE
RACE 5: TRYING TO BEAT BAUTISTA (COULD BE MOST LIKELY WINNER) 10 DERF HANOVER IS MY A, 1,2,5 the “others”
PICK 5 TICKETS TOTAL COST $43.20
7 / 3 / 27 / 4689 / 10 = $1.60 for .20c (repeat x 2) = $3.20
7 / 234 / 27 / 4689 / 1510 = $14.40 for .20c
7 / 3 / 27 / 4689 / 2 = $1.60 for .20c (repeat x 4) = $6.40
7 / 234 / 27 / 89 / 12510 = $9.60 for .20c
123456 / 3 / 27 / 4689 / 10 = $9.60 for .20c
GOOD LUCK!!!
RACE 1
7 BEE IN CHARGE obviously is logical in here on the drop back down to the claiming level, and it seems he’ll take a bulk of the action in here, the last mile didn’t look that great though, but perhaps it was just that tough of a field? Don’t love at 2-1 range, but tough to ignore and I really dislike others, you basically have to decide if he’s single worthy or not. I will on all but 1 ticket.
RACE 2
1 QUADRANGLE will be bet with the inside draw and 1st or 2nd in last 7 starts, logical, but certainly doesn’t have to win, prefer to play completely against in Pick 5
2 SHE’S GOT PIZAZZ sat a perfect trip and exploded late to score at 27-1 wrapped up under the wire last week for us to start the Pick 5, but she’s probably not as good as that effort, and more than likely the price is gone, prefer to fade this week, but a repeat of last week’s effort would make her tough
3 DONATO LANE was dragged back to the back off the gate after the aggressive steer the week before and it’s tough to imagine what kind of a trip we’ll get tonight, but I’m guessing he’ll do the same as last week and hope for a better trip, he was never beating the winner, but he’d have gotten really close had he had any luck in the stretch, the one I want IF the price is there, but people watch replays these days so it may not be, CHECK THE DOUBLE PROBABLES BEFORE RACE 1!!!
4 MONOPOLY is the other one I’d want, but mostly bc of price, bc the 5 is probably just as likely, but the 4 will drift bc of the driver, needs some luck but not without hope
BOTTOM LINE: 1 QUADRANGLE WILL BE OVERBET, OTHERS SHOULD OFFER VALUE, YOU WON’T GET 27-1 ON THE 2 THIS WEEK, 8-1 IS THE BUY PRICE, 3 DONATO LANE IS 9-2 ML, I’M GUESSING YOU WON’T GET THAT, BUT WHO KNOWS, WAS 9-1 LAST WEEK
BET 3 DONATO LANE AT ML ODDS OR HIGHER
RACE 3
4 SPEED TO MARKET will be backed heavily but he really wasn’t very good last week, and I prefer to fade, but the inside draw and early speed helps his cause, I guess
6 DREAMFAIR CHARRO seems to have the ability, but he’s tough to trust at what figures to be shorter odds than he won at last week, prefer others, can beat me this week after that cone skimmer last week
1 I’LL BE BACK was fine last week, but it’s really hard to back him after that race, he got about as good of ground saving trip as you can get, and got beat still by a horse he was well clear of when they entered deep stretch, tough to recommend but could biggest price of the “main 3 betting choices”
2 MC PAT is the wild card for me, I thought he might have won last week if Filion was able to steer him, I don’t think he got rough for any reason other than equipment, as he never looked comfortable to me, even while in the pocket, he was certainly going to have every chance late but you can see his head was cocked sideways and Filion was having all sorts of trouble and had to grab hold of him essentially, I wonder how he’ll be bet, at 10-1 again, I’d be in for sure
7 DON’T DILLY DALLY is going to be who I bet more than likely, as long as I get the 6-1, Roy seemed content to drag him back last week (was even off the gate) and he looked like he was content to follow the 1 home, and that one got beat up the inside, and this one appeared to me to be surging late when he may have “tied up” right before he made the lead, I’m assuming with him right back in the box they think he’s good to go tonight, he’s worth a shot at a nice price
BOTTOM LINE: THIS FIELD IS LOADED WITH QUESTION MARKS, DON’T BE AFRAID TO SHOP AROUND FOR THE BEST PRICE!
RACE 4
4 LEVY TAYLORE was good last week for us but that wasn’t much of a field and you’ll likely pay the price tonight at the windows for that win, slightly prefer others tonight
6 CROCODILE CANYON might go favored in here off the barn and drive change, I don’t love him but he fits
8 LONE WOLF TERROR is going to be last early from post 8, that almost surely means he can’t win, but one of these weeks he’s going to catch a wicked pace at big odds and light up the tote board, is it tonight?
9 REIKI drops back down and goes back to the same barn as the win 2 back, I don’t like post 9 though, he’ll need some racing luck from out there, no idea what price you’ll get, they didn’t touch last week up in class, but was favored here in the win 2 back, highly doubt you’ll see 8-1 though
BOTTOM LINE is nothing stands out in here, any of these 4 can win though, no strong opinion at all
RACE 5
2 BAUTISTA is as sharp as can be right now and with his gate speed and the inside draw, could be tough on the front end once again tonight, but I’m going to play devil’s advocate. He beat a 6 horse field where he was the controlling speed, backed down the middle half and faced ZERO pressure from the outside and he knew the horse on his back was probably going to need the race having missed a couple of weeks, take nothing away from the form he’s in, but in a 10 horse field tonight, I’m willing to be they’ll be a lot more action, and this one isn’t the lock but likely is a lot of people’s key horse off good looking wins on paper against similar, going to try and beat (again)
1 FLY BEYOND draws well again and should sit a good trip just like last week, had no chance into that slow middle half though and if he gets a more favorable setup tonight, he could be right there at a fair number
5 PERFETTO is sharp right now too, and tried to make his own trip last week from a very difficult spot, he never really threatened but actually trotted fine through the mile, wouldn’t be a shock, just don’t know if the price will be big enough
10 DERF HANOVER is who I’m going back to again this week, he probably needed the last, 2nd start, Moreau, 2nd start over the track, likely won’t get as good of a trip from out here but he should leave and get involved still, and the favorite doesn’t figure to walk on the front end again tonight, there is zero chance you’ll get 10-1 but 9-2 from out here is probably fair enough
BOTTOM LINE is 10 DERF HANOVER IS WORTH A PLAY AT 9-2 OR MORE