Mohawk Racing Analysis- Monday Feb 4 2019- By Keith Rosintoski

MOBINE MONDAY FEBRUARY 4TH 2019

RACE 1

1 FLY BEYOND is logical in a spot like this with the inside draw, the 3 week off is a concern, but the switch back to Mcnair is a positive

3 HEY LIVVY is good when she races….when she races….she won 5 straight here before drawing the 10 hole in her last,  we’ll see if the scratch last week matters

5 STORMONT CHARLOTTE won last time at a big price and now faces tougher, I don’t recommend taking a short price

6 QUADRANGLE hints at ability, interesting at the ML odds or higher

7 PERFETTO and 8 DONATO LANE are now getting into deeper waters and draw poorly, both have to find a way into the race, not worth a short number

BOTTOM LINE: 7 & 8 will be underlays and worth playing against to win at the very least, 5 is a fade in exotics

RACE 2

2 PL MUNSON and 7 PICKEM will attract the bulk of the action seemingly with McClure and Roy respectively, but I’m going in another direction entirely.

4 SLIM SHADY attracts CC after a closing kick was shown in the qualifier, the ones that have race haven’t been that special thus far, perhaps this one is ready on debut as a 4yo for a trainer we’ve never heard of?  My Pick 5 single.

BOTTOM LINE: A SHORT PRICE WILL LIKELY WIN IN 2 OR 7, BUT THE 4 COULD BE THE VALUE IF READY ON DEBUT

RACE 3

9 HEAD TURNING JAG is the ML favorite and normally, at this level, he would tower over some of his foes, but post 9 does no favors, vulnerable at a short price

4 MYSTICAL MISSION isn’t a great price either and while he draws well, he’s been unable to find the winner’s circle and that makes him worth playing against as well

6 MYSTERY BET will likely overbet bet after people see five-length win as the chalk last time in this class, but the form hasn’t been good since, and now changes barns, be weary

7 MEADOWBRANCH MEMO should handle a level like this, but just never gets involved early on and is dependent on trip, he too not a great bet as the likely post time favorite

BOTTOM LINE: NOT A GREAT BETTING RACE BECAUSE ONE OF THE CHALKS WILL PROBABLY WIN DESPITE NOT BEING GREAT BETS

RACE 4

5 CASIMIR OVERDRIVE finds another softish spot and should be able to make it 3 in a row, but he offers no value, and doesn’t have to win as is generally the case for all 8K claimers

8 REGAL MAC is the one I prefer, the switch back to McNair and drop in class from the last time he was here should be enough of a difference, expect him to be forward early tonight even from post 8

10 TYLER’S BEACH BOY once had a tad of ability, but they finally give up now, way too many question marks, and I doubt they actually let him make a start

BOTTOM LINE: 8 REGAL MAC is a better price than the 5, one of the two is likely to win the race

RACE 5

2 BIG RICH gets the drop in class and switch back to Roy, live player for sure, the 5-1 could hold

3 WILD AND CRAZY GUY remains in good form, has early speed and draws inside finally, could be used here after missing a week, could offer some value if gets into double digits or more

4 BAUTISTA was 6-1 at this level last start and is 5-2 on the ML after a 3rd place try, prefer to fade if favored for sure but doubt he will be

7 CATCH THE DREAM  is an enigma, on his best he fits at this level very well, but can the 11 year old muster up another big effort 1st off the bench?  The price should be fine to find out

9 CUE HALL in a lot of ways is the horse to beat, but he’s had plenty of chances from inside posts, and if the ML is right he’ll be half the odds he was here last time he won at this class, he can certainly win but he doesn’t offer value necessarily as I think he’ll go to post favored, even on the drop

BOTTOM LINE: 2 BIG RICH, 3 WILD AND CRAZY GUY, 7 CATCH THE DREAM are the ones I’m interested In using on top if the price is right

RACE 6

9 CLASSY DRAGON 0 for 14 over the track and post 9, no thanks

5 SOME PLAYA was way bigger odds last time at this level

6 BETTOR OPS makes debut for Auciello, he’s 0 for 35 off the layoff? That stat can’t be right

7 KEEP COMING I guess interesting enough for a small wager, I don’t know what Cullen was doing last time but I know he’ll try hard again at least

BOTTOM LINE: 7 KEEP COMING is the biggest price of the ones that can win, do with that what you will

RACE 7

3 EXEMPLAR seems to be one of those “hard to look past” types every week, but for real, this week, and the price is finally gone so he’ll surely win

4 SEEYOU MEN was as live as live gets last time and was 15-1, Filion left and secured a pocket spot, and we all knew he was never going to vacate the cones after that, he managed to never get room to trot, and will be grossly over bet tonight because of it I would assume, and jog

7 MAJOR MUSCLE drops off a no try from an outside post, and attracts McClure, with a shot

BOTTOM LINE IS 4 SEEYOU MEN is who I want to bet, but I doubt we’ll see anything remotely close to double digits to bet him at, I guess at 6-1 for this field he’s fine though

RACE 8

Looks chalky, no opinion

RACE 9

9 DREAMFAI CHARRO has faced tougher in the last two and the post should only help the price, BEST BET on the card with the switch back to McNair, he’s never left which is the only concern but he should be the best horse in here, if you get $9, take a shot

1 CAPTAIN AMERICA is the one I want underneath most, but 6 and 7 are obviously more likely if you prefer to chalk out in exotics

BOTTOM LINE: BET 9 DREAMFAIR CHARRO AT 7-2 OR MORE

TRIFECTAS           9 / 1 / 35678                       1 / 9 / 35678

SUPERFECTAS 9 / 1 / 35678 / 35678         9 / 35678 / 1 / 35678

RACE 10

8 PL JILL is sharp but post 8 at this level always hurts!!

7 B YOYO continues to finish in the superfecta, reliable under, tough to recommend on top

6 APRIL ROSE has been sharp out of town, and more interestingly, crushed the last time she finished a race here, perhaps the time to take a shot on the step up in class?

1 FREE WILLY and 2 BUZZ have good draws and are in sharp form, would be no surprise to hit the ticket, and offer good odds should you like

BOTTOM LINE IS NOT MUCH SEPARATES THESE, BUT THE TIME OFF COULD MAKE IT EVEN MORE TRICKY, IF THE 6 IS THE ONE THAT’S LOST IN THE WAGERING, SHE HAS THE RECENCY AND PERHAPS SHE COULD STEP UP AND GET A PIECE AT A BIG NUMBER, USABLE FOR SURE

RACE 11

2 BETTORS WESTERN drops and should handle this bunch at a short number, should he not win, it’s wide wide open.

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE! FOLLOW ON TWITTER @LEGENDBETS #MOBINEMONDAY

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