Mohawk Racing Analysis — Monday, December 17, 2018, by Keith Rosintoski

RACE 1

PICK 5 STARTS HERE
Leg 1:   1, 2, 7
Leg 2:   1, 3
Leg 3:   5, 7
Leg 4:   1, 2, 3, 4, 8
Leg 5:   4, 5

7 DRAFT YEAR will be overbet off a race that most will consider a tough trip, but the truth is he really got a good ground saving journey and passed some horses late when finally free but he never looked like a winner, and now you’ll get half the price, can win but no value as the favorite.
1 DONATO LANE made two moves last week and now draws the rail after two tough trips from outside posts, one to consider if the price is right.
2 CHEATALOTPOV was a no try last week from post 10 after missing a week, he moves inside tonight and should be heard from at some point in the mile, at 5-1 or more he’s interesting.
5 EMBOLDEN got a little lost last as they got to 3 quarters and really had a bit of trouble in the stretch, but it’s tough to imagine anyone would want the 4-1 they are suggesting on the ML, the more he drifts the better he looks.

WAGERING SUGGESTIONS
2 CHEATALOTPOV AT 5-1 OR MORE
Trifecta 2 / 157 / 157
Superfecta 2 / 157 / 157 / 157     157 / 2 / 157 / 157

RACE 2
1 BAUTISTA took some early $$ last week and was fired up on the front end early on before tiring late, he may have needed the race though, and now draws the pole and should be forward again, don’t take too short but a contender.
2 KAMERAN HANOVER when right fits well here but the layoff, the poor effort and then a scratched sick leaves too many questions, pass this time/
3 SO NOT COOL exits the toughest race IMO and while he seems to have some “wise-guy” appeal to him dropping 2nd off the layoff I think even at ½  the suggested 10-1 ML he should be given a long look, but I wouldn’t be too eager take any lower than that.
5 FLY BEYOND and 6 VEYRON finished 1st and 2nd last time and while 5 FLY BEYOND rallied well from a no chance spot to be 2nd to the ML favorite tonight 6 VEYRON, quite simply I prefer the ones, not from that race, I realize they could BOTH win but I don’t think they should be the only ones that take any of the betting action.
7 WHAT A CHAPTER also rallied from a tough spot to be 3rd in that same race and I think it suggests that it may have just been a race that wasn’t that great overall and those 3 were better than the rest of the competition.

WAGERING SUGGESTIONS
3 SO NOT COOL AT 5-1 OR MORE
TRIFECTAS 3 / 1 / 567    3 / 567 / 1
SUPERFECTAS 3 / 1567 / 1567 / 1567 
1567 / 3 / 1567 / 1567

RACE 3
1 CHICKIE LOVE is one of those horses you see on the ML and hope it’s right, but he can’t be 3-1 off that last effort just 5 days ago right?  Much prefer others.
5 NASTY RUMOR was a no-show off a decent tip 1st off the barn change, but the recent form wasn’t as bad, I think if he drifts he’s more interesting, ALL OR NOTHING TYPE!
7 NO MATTERWHEN was forced to move early last week when a “cheap speed” somehow was bet and made the front from post 8 before backing through the field, that move got to him later in the mile when the favorite went right on by and this one slowed to a walk nearing the wire, he’s the one to beat, but he got passed for 2nd by a 45-1 shot last week that is in here again tonight, do you really want him at 2-1 tonight?
8 LO HOLD A MOONBEAN never wins but likes to make a late move to get a piece, he’s not a win candidate from out here I don’t think but he can spice up the exotics.
4 GOLDIES BAD GIRL looks ok on paper but has been HORRIBLE in other big track tries in the past, simply a small track horse that always takes $$ and should be faded.

WAGERING SUGGESTIONS
5 NASTY RUMOR AT 6-1 OR MORE

RACE 4

PICK 4 STARTS HERE
LEG 1:   1, 2, 3, 4, 8
LEG 2:    4, 5
LEG 3:    4, 7
LEG 4:   2, 7, 8

7 ROCKY J SQUIRREL blasted to the top from post 8 last week, and faded badly late, now is the ML choice?  Change of tactics could be in store as well, bad ML favorite.
8 SCOUTS REPORT scratched sick last time after a break, tonight’s the night you’ll get a price if you are in the forgiving mood, interesting the bigger he gets.
1 BEACHIN LINDY for the first time in awhile didn’t try to make the front end much to the surprise of many, but perhaps after a couple of front end tries that may have taken something out of him and he certainly looked flat to the boards last week, will he bounce back or continue to go sour? Prefer others.
2 IVEGOTAGIRLCRUSH probably needed his last and was driven as such and still finished okay, has to be more involved tonight from a better post and a positive pilot change, one to consider for sure.
3 SO MUCH BETTOR rallied late after being badly out paced early, I wouldn’t want a short price but is interesting at least.
4 HILLTOP GINGER was cold on the board and flat but I would think tonight we’ll at least see this one flash some early speed, I prefer others but if he takes $$ off that effort I suppose it tells us something, Gillis did get her on a short week and thought he’d be tighter after that qualifier but clearly that wasn’t the case, tough read.
WAGERING SUGGESTIONS
2 I’VEGOTAGIRLCRUSH AT 7-1 OR MORE
FADE THE FAVORITE AND HAVE SOME FUN

RACE 5
1 DOCS DARLIN has been in decent form until her last, perhaps a sign of things to come or perhaps just a bad line as he did take $$, have to be willing to forgive but at 1-13 is tough to strongly consider but 8-1 or more makes interesting.
4 IVESEENTHEFUTURE went a winning mile last week and got beat and figures to take money off that effort, a repeat would put her right there, the ML is crazy, he won’t be 8-1.
5 WINDSONG OLYMPIA got through just in time to get the win first time out for Marty Fine, draws well enough again to repeat, likely favorite again.
6 WOODMERE WYLDSTYLE needs pace to chase but can hit the board and is usually left alone on the tote.
7 KAYMAR CHROME ended up a long first over last time but I’m not sure that field was that much better than this one, prefer to fade from an outside post at a shortish number.
NO WAGERING SUGGESTIONS

RACE 6
1 SHES GOT PIZZAZZ inherited a win last week when the inside opened up after the favorite jumped it off, moves up to offset drawing well, could land a piece with a good trip but prefer others.
3 STORMONT CHARLOTTE was good again last week but Filion always finds trouble, he should protect position at the very least in here, let’s hope he doesn’t pin him to they pylons throughout though, a live chance at a price.
4 HEY LIVVY has been ready to roll and won 3 races impressively to close out the year, much the one to beat with the good draw she likely makes every call, strong favorite.
5 EX HANOVER has done nothing wrong and has had some success on this circuit prior to facing seemingly tougher out of town lately, can certainly win and figures to be a player at some point.
6 KENDRAS COCO blew up last week to allow the rail horse to win and the way this one was backed again it seemed like this one was going to have another blowout win, you aren’t getting 6-1, but I suppose he can win, however, the risk of the break is cause for pause.
7 GISELE TREELANE exits a race I’m not fond of but at least this is the right level for this horse, if the ones from earlier on the card race well in a tougher class, I’d consider this one even more, for now, she’s a major contender though and while I don’t like 30-1 to 1/4th that this week, I think you have to use her
WAGERING SUGGESTIONS
BET 7 GISELE TREELANE AT 6-1 OR MORE
Trifectas 7 / 45 / 13456
Superfecta 7 / 4 / 1356 / 1356
7 / 1356 / 4 / 1356
7 / 1356 / 1356 / 4

RACE 7
PICK 4 STARTS HERE
LEG 1: 2, 8
LEG 2:  5, 8 , 10
LEG 3:  4
LEG 4:  2, 6, 10

2 LEGAL POWER was bet hard last week from post 9 and nearly delivered but got nailed late under the wire, the better draw tonight likely means we’ll see him leave again and cut the mile, but he’ll be bet again too, and doesn’t have to win.
6 PHANTOM SEELSTER worked out a perfect trip from the rail last week and won’t have that luxury tonight, he’s in top form and can certainly win but is tonight the night he gets beat? 
7 LARRY’S PETROCK needs pace to chase but can really kick in the lane, if he gets the right setup, he can win.
8 RUSH TO JUDGEMENT was the easiest kind of winner last week and you’d have to think he’ll be put into play early on once again tonight, perhaps a cut below, but the price should be fair for him to repeat against a tougher field

WAGERING SUGGESTIONS
8 RUSH TO JUDGEMENT AT 4-1 OR MORE

RACE 8
1 ODDS ON AMETHYST got roughed up last week, draws similar, and may be double the price, perhaps worth a look.
5 MAJOR MUSCLE was okay last time and now gets  a better post to work with, should be heard from late in the mile, we’ll see how big of a price he’ll be.
6 WILD AND CRAZY GUY does his best work a notch below, prefer others, but can win I suppose.
8 DAYLON MAGICIAN could be the one to beat IMO despite post 8, really he just finds the right spot, must use.
10 ST. JAMES GATE does his best trotting late so the post might not be as big of a detriment, needs some luck from out here though, and as the favorite last week figures to take some $$ again this week

WAGERING SUGGESTIONS
5 MAJOR MUSCLE AT 10-1 OR MORE
Trifectas 5/ 16810 / 16810
Superfectas 5 / 8 / 1610 / ALL
8 / 5 / 1610 / ALL
5 / 1610 / 8 / ALL
5 / 8 / ALL / 1610

RACE 9
4 ON A SUNNY DAY likely needed the last but has done some nice work here in the past, gets 2nd time Lasix, draws well for the drive / trainer combo who hit the ticket 60% of the time together, a must use at a decent number
7 BUZZ just doesn’t win so at a short number I’m fine with letting him beat me.
8 MEADOWBRANCH MEMO never finds the wire first, does fit well here though, could get lost in the wagering, and Roy sticks, at 6-1 or more is worth at least a long look.

WAGERING SUGGESTIONS
BET 4 ON A SUNNY DAY AT 7-2 OR MORE

RACE 10
2 LONE WOLF TERRIER looks tough shipping in for the 1st time for Auciello 6 and 10 the others. I’ll use in Pick 4 but chalk looks tough on paper

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