Mohawk Racing Analysis — Monday, December 10, 2018, by Keith Rosintoski

RACE 1
PICK 5 STARTS HERE
Leg 1:  7, 8
Leg 2:  4, 5
Leg 3:  6, 7, 9
Leg 4:  9
Leg 5:  1, 3, 5

8 TOUCHDOWN AS has issues and could go off stride again tonight, but he also might get lost in the wagering, and while he’s done his best work at levels below the one he faces tonight, it’s not like he finds a bunch of horses in great form, IF he stays flat he can be heard from late in the mile7 EXEMPLAR was given the old no try last time out from post 10 but figures to be used early on tonight to at least get some post position.  He’s kept good enough company to suggest he’ll be a factor again tonight2 ST. JAMES GATE is the ML favorite and with the inside draw tonight this one should be able to save ground and get a piece at least at the end, but he’s hardly a bargain price at 3-1.  His closing style from off the pace makes him trip dependent as well, can win but doesn’t have to5 HEMI SEELSTER is the wild card for the suddenly hot Jeffrey Gillis barn, this one tries the big oval for the 1st time and the board may give some more clues, has shown speed in the past and could be forward again tonight, after failing to complete a qualifier until the 3rd try in his first race since August, he’s got question marks and I’m happy to toss at a shortish price
WAGERING SUGGESTIONS
8 TOUCHDOWN AS at 7-1 or more
Trifecta  8 / 7 / 169  
 8 / 169 / 7 
RACE 2
5 DOC’S DARLIN always seems to have a tough trip but could be the one that gets lost in the wagering, the more he drifts the more interesting he becomes
8 COSETTE took advantage of a perfect post and trip last time as she was able to save ground past the half and then go first over and grind out a 2nd place finish, tonight she draws the worst of it and may be a shorter price, fade on top3 CARDIFF is the ML favorite but has question marks with the main one being the layoff, do you really want a short price on a horse that’s now had 8 tries at the NW of 2 level, I don’t.
4 SHADOW SPARKS was fine last week on the front but this is a negative driver change for the 2yo and you wonder if Filion will be as aggressive, prefer others but if she makes the front she could be tough
NO WAGERING SUGGESTIONS

RACE 3
GREAT BETTING RACE 
9 DARKEST SECRET exits the toughest race and while post 9 is not he may be good enough to overcome it, this horse used to leave off the gate but hasn’t in some time and strapped with outside posts in his last 7 starts perhaps tonight is the night we see them put this one into play early on, watch the board for clues
6 MCDAVE was backed to favoritism last time out and didn’t get an ideal trip by any stretch but looked in an ok spot to hit the ticket given the pacesetter folded just past 3 quarters, but the comment line reads broken equipment and it’s been learned he finished with a broken hobble which probably didn’t help, I’m unsure how they’ll bet him myself as it’s the old “forgiven or forgotten”, let price be guide.
4 MISTER BIG TOP was bet for some reason last week and did absolutely no trotting, fade in all spots with that 4-1 ML as in my opinion he was a suck along 4th in a pace that collapsed into his lap after a ground saving journey, he’s a horrible wager at 4-1 tonight EVEN if he somehow wins
2 IM NOT BAD is no bargain at a short price but he was a rallying 3rd three races back to a horse that beat a lot of these common foes at this level last week, he’s a contender but you can’t love the price with this trainer/driver
5 SPEEDLING was given a great steer to get 2nd last time but I didn’t think he was anything special sitting behind a horse that was well backed at the windows but seemingly had no shot on paper shipping in, I guess he could find himself a similar trip tonight with his early speed but you’ll take the worst of it at 1/3rd his price last week on the morning line and he benefited greatly from the way that race last week panned out, against this week for me 
1 SURF REPORT could take money first time for Auciello but the barn is cold, and I don’t think this one is going to reverse form any time soon
7 UF BETTORS HANOVER doesn’t win here but has hit the ticket in 3 of his last 4 over the 7/8 oval and should be in line to get a piece with a good trip
8 MERCENARY has an unreliable driver that is more likely to ruin a race than win a race, use underneath at big odds as he was parked the whole mile last week and could be better tonight if he gets to see the pylons

WAGERING SUGGESTIONS
WIN BET 9 DARKEST SECRET 4-1 OR MORE
Trifectas 9 / 267 / 267  
Superfecta   9 / 2678 / 2678 / 2678          2678 / 9 / 2678 / 2678                   2678 / 2678 / 9 / 2678                   2678 / 2678 / 2678 / 9  
RACE 4
PICK 4 STARTS HERE
TICKET SUGGESTION
LEG 1: 1, 9 
LEG 2:  1, 3, 5
LEG 3:  6, 7
 LEG 4: 2, 9 

1 PHANTOM SEELSTER looks for 4 in a row and looks the main danger once again tonight with the inside draw, she should get whatever trip she wants and she’s once again the one to beat, solid favorite, somehow not the ML favorite?
2 FOOT SOLDIER gets the honor of ML choice off that narrow score presumably against tougher than what he faces today, but having lost 3 consecutive times to the rail horse in his prior 3 starts I doubt the public is drooling to back him as the favorite after he scored by a half length at 27-1, he won’t be favored, if he repeats his last they’ll have a hard time beating him, but where did it come from?
3 MISSION THREE has gotten a pair of seconds to the rail horse and actually has beaten the horse to his inside 3 and 4 back and if he’s in the 5 or 6-1 range that’d be more than fair odds and I actually like the driver change as well, interesting contender but more for underneath.
4 BEACHIN LINDY has speed and that always makes him dangerous, but he takes a beating on the front end sometimes and that can start to take it’s toll, prefer others
5 HE’S GOT SWAGGER is in good form and you COULD make excuses for the 2 bad lines on his page as he had outside posts in both, but it’s also the only 2 times he’s faced the rail horse, perhaps a cut below, but a certain price willing to find out given the better draw tonight, interesting at 8-1 or more.
7 HILLTOP GINGER joins the Gillis barn and attracts McClure and that alone will attract money, but I’m not so sure, 2 back he lost a race that he sat a perfect trip in at 2-1 and the favorite in the race broke, and then he jumped up in class and was pulled up, now returns here?  I doubt you are getting 6-1 which is why I’m picking holes, if you get it, by all means have a bet
9 LEGAL POWER could very well be the goods, and perhaps after the blowout win first time in the barn this series became the target, his last was not that great as he quarter moved to take over after a fast opening fraction, and then tired late, this is a more suitable spot though and if he can overcome post 9 he can win


WAGERING SUGGESTIONS WIN BET #9 AT 3-1 OR MORE
Trifecta  9 / 1 / 457
   9 / 457 / 1
Superfecta
9 / 1 / 5 / 247
9 / 5 / 1 / 247
1 / 5 / 9 / 247
1 / 9 / 5 / 247  

RACE 5
3 DAYLON MAGICIAN was last seen here at the preferred level and the double millionaire found the winner’s circle again last time out and if you presume, he needed the one off the layoff, he should be primed to come right back tonight and control this thing from the get-go, great chance, 10-1 seems too good to be true.
1 SO NOT COOL fits at this level but he’ll probably need one off the layoff, the price on the line is attractive though and he’s done okay work here before against this level, the inside post helps, tough call.
9 IL SOGNO DREAM is sharp, but post 9 does him no favors, all of his good recent efforts have come from inside posts and there is no reason to back him at a short price tonight.
4 PL JILL is unreliable and while her win 2 back was okay this is supposed to be tougher field than that and coming off a break as the favorite she’s tough to rely heavily on.
5 TRY TRY AGAIN perhaps just needed a couple weeks off and tonight finds a spot that’s softer than some of the ones he’s faced of late, in with an outside shot

WAGERING SUGGESTIONS
3 WIN BET at 5-1 or MORE
Exacta 3 / 15
15 / 3
Trifecta  3 / 15 / 12568
15 / 3 /12568
Superfecta 3 / 15 / 1256 / 1245689
15 / 3 / 1256 / 1245689
15 / 1256 / 3 / 1245689

RACE 6
6 VESUVIO BI is in sharp form and even though his off the pace style lends to tougher trips he lands in a spot tonight that could make him a player, the price should be more than fair.
7 FLY BEYOND is in good form with none more impressive than his last, but as he climbs the class ladder I’m willing to play against, although the form suggests he may just keep going forward, contender once again tonight.
1 VEYRON lands in a tidy spot tonight and from the rail should be heard from at some point in this mile, destroyed a field 4 back at this level and was even favored that night, expect to take a bulk of the action tonight, don’t love but a contender.
2 BAUTISTA is the ML choice? Bizarre
WAGERING SUGGESTIONS
WIN BET 6 VESUVIO BI AT 6-1 OR MORE

RACE 7
PICK 4 STARTS HERE
PICK 4 TICKET SUGGESTION
9 / 567 / 578 / 782 / 7 / 578 / 78
2 LARRYS PETROCK is the one to beat in here but always seems to leave himself with a lot to do, hardly worth the short price he’ll be, but the most likely winner.
9 SCOUTS REPORT was 2-1 last time vs the favorite and when he stayed in from 3rd and got covered up he never found room again, once he got to the inside stuck behind all sorts of traffic this one decided to stop pacing and go on a gallop, he’s back tonight and while post 9 is harsh, he’ll be much bigger price than the chalk.
6 IVEGOTAGIRLCRUSH is probably the only other that can upset, but I’m not sure how good the out of town form he’s been facing is, you’ll get a fair price tonight, worth a look
WAGERING SUGGESTIONS
9 SCOUTS REPORT TO WIN AT 4-1 OR MORE
Trifectas 9 / 2 / 14568
Superfecta 29 / 29 / 14568 / 14568

RACE 8
8 MUSICAL RHYTHM is in good form and crushed the preferred last time out, but at $20, last time was the time, I wouldn’t want a short price from an outside post tonight, prefer others.
7 B YOYO always shows up but almost always gets a trip that prevents him from winning, probably most likely though, and a fair enough price if the ML is accurate.
6 DANCER HALL was disappointing in his last but perhaps we can excuse the off track, not without a shot but depends how they bet the race.
5 CUE HALL has the benefit of having raced last week and he was an easy winner, gets tested for class at the top level tonight, but recent form and good gate speed put him in with a shot.
NO WAGERING SUGGESTIONS

RACE 9
2 BID WRITER is a play against for me in this spot despite the inside draw, much prefer others but hope that 3-1 is right.
3 NASTY RUMOR never wins but can certainly land a piece if the trip works, use under.
5 NOMATTERWHEN got the job done last week but now must change barns to do so again, perhaps he’ll do it again, but I prefer to try and beat him again this week UNLESS he goes off a bigger price than the 7.
7 DOC’S SAUSALITO nearly got the job done last week but was bet off the board, if left alone tonight I’ll like more but figures to take some $$ in this spot.
8 DESTINY CRUISER is the new face and could be a bit cheaper shipping in from Flamboro but this barn has done good work of late and I expect an aggressive steer off the gate from McNair tonight, useable.
NO WAGERING SUGGESTIONS

RACE 10 4 TE KAWAU N last win came at the Preferred level and while he’s been dropping and finds the bottom level tonight, the form has gone so south he’s even tough to rely on here, on class alone the one to beat.
7 REAL SURREAL lands in a comfortable spot tonight to be heard from and could catch his first fast track since the return, the drop in class should wake this one up tonight, strong lean this way.
8 NEEDLECREST was scratched lame and hasn’t been seen in 3 weeks because of it, comes back tonight, finds a softer spot but a tough post, tough call but if the price is right.
NO WAGERING SUGGESTIONS  

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