Laurel Park Racing Analysis- Sunday, November 4, 2018- By Jeffrey Byrnes

Sunday Laurel Picks:
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Playing races as if they are coming off the turf.
Race1: CLAIMING $16,000 – $14,000 1 1/16 (Turf)
Picks: 7-12-13
Belle ’n Tonic (#7): Main track only horse comes in off back to back solid efforts at the $16,000 level. He has won at this distance before at a higher claiming level. Gets the services of Trevor McCarthy. With small field, will have greater chance. 
Petion Lass (#12): Won an off the turf two turn race at Delaware Park last time out and jumps from $12,500 to $14,000 here. Has speed, and with reduced field. Could be on the lead, if so, very dangerous. 
Lulu’s on the Move (#13): Has three second place finishes on the main track and last two races at this level have his recent best. Trainer is 16% in routes and pedigree suggests she should love the offgoiing.
Race 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000 Six furlongs
Picks: 7-4-1
Bash (#7): Drops from maiden $40,000 to maiden claiming $25,000, the lowest if his career. He cuts back to the distance where he ran his previous best race. He gets blinkers for the first time, where trainer is 20%, also trainer is 21% in second start off layoff. Race has little speed, so he could be upfront early. Must use. 
Summer Fling (#4): Drops to shortest distance of his career, where trainer is 20% in route to sprint. horse has run best beyer number in last race and faces perhaps weakest field of career. Could be dangerous. 
Bayou’s Legacy (#1): Drops into the claiming ranks for the first time, where trainer is 30% in first time claiming, and goes from turf to dirt, where trainer is 21%. Pedigree suggests distance and surface should not be a big problem. Solid jockey/trainer combination. Could be worthy longshot. 
Race 3: CLAIMING $20,000 One Mile 
Picks: 3-1-5
Double Whammy (#3): Comes off win last out at $12,500 and could be lone speed in here. Trainer is 30% in claimer repeats and 25% in last out wins. Field is relatively weak for his level, and should have no excuse. 
Gold Man (#1): Has won 3 out of last our starts and drops back into claiming ranks. Beat Double Whammy two starts back. Can save ground on the inside and get first jump. 
The Great Casby (#5): Making first start at Laurel after competing in Minnesota his entire career. Trainer is 20% shipping and 23% in claiming ranks. Drops to lowest level of his career, a good setup from a fast pace can help. 
Race 4: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000 Six furlongs
Picks: 9-7-5
Simoneia (#9): Has most experience on the dirt, with six second place finishes. In four starts at the $25,000 level, he has two seconds and a third. He will be close and depending on if a lot of horses scratch, could be on the lead. 
Oddseverinurfavor (#7): Lone dirt start was a 3rd place finish at the $40,000 level going six furlongs. He was second a nose at $16,000 level, and figures well into this group. 
Princess Rosie (#5): Was third last out at the $25,000 level. He turned in steady works coming into this race. Worthy longshot look.
Race 5: CLAIMING $5,000 5 1/2 furlongs
Picks: 6-7-1
Young American (#6): Won going six furlongs at this level last out after spending entire career doing things he didn’t want to do. Trainer is 29% in claimer repeats and 21% in last out winners. Horse has good speed and faces weaker. Must use. 
Awesome Standard (#7): Won at the $10,000 level four starts back. His speed figures are among best of this group. He can rate and will sit off the pace, his best race could be good enough. 
Humbolt Street (#1): Deep closer will have plenty of speed to chase into. Trainer is 21% in claiming races and gets a good jockey/trainer combination. Won three in a row at this level at one point, but will need a good pace. 
Race 6:  ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $50,000 Six Furlongs
Picks: 2-4-6
Discreet Deceit (#2): Has finished in the top 3 in seven straight races. Her last win she earned a 90 beyer number. Trainer is 18% in sprints. From inside post, she can use her speed and hug the rail. She will be tough, must use. 
Hailey’s Flip (#4): Comes in with four straight on the board finishes. Solid work pattern coming in and trainer is 23% shipping in. She is a deep closer, and will need pace to get a run. Solid jockey/trainer combination. She has faced tougher, and could get a piece. 
Enchanted GhosT (#6): Won the Wine Country at Laurel two starts back, but that was back in February. She was 3rd on return, and trainer is 12 second off the layoff. she turned in a 59 flat bullet last week and she is ready to roll. She runs to her February race, she can surprise. 
Race 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $50,000 Six furlongs
Picks: 7-8-5
Mr. Brix (#7): First time with leading trainer Claudio Gonzalez, where he is 33% with first time claimers and 22% sprinting. This hors can rate, and could sit off good pace. Will get outside trip and first run. Must use. 
Tale of E Dubai (#8): Speed horse coming in off back to back wins and being claimed. Trainer is 32% with first time claimers and 45% with winners last out. He’s won last two in wire to wire fashion. He will have to go from the outside and will be tough. 
Cinderela El Crome (#5): First or second in last four starts, trainer is 24% in last out winners, solid work pattern coming in. another speed horse but can rate, gets Trevor McCarthy is a plus. 
Race 8: CLAIMING $5,000 One Mile
Picks: 10-2-8
Sound Off (#10): Drops to the lowest level of his career, where trainer is 24% when dropping down two classes. Gets Trevor McCarthy aboard and will sit off contested pace. Big class drop and top jockey. Must use. 
Disco Express (#2): In the top three in last three starts. Only start at a mile is a throw out as he couldn’t handle off going. Should get faster track today. Modest works coming in and solid jockey/ trainer combination. 
Ticker Tape parade: Drops to the $5,000 level where he won at four starts back. Has speed and can rate. In the top four in nine straight starts. Will be one of the pace setters. 
Race 9: CLAIMING $12,500 – $10,500 One Mile 
Picks: 4-2-7
No Drinking Rules (#4): In the top four in nine straight races, including four wins. This horse now drops to $12,500 after competing in higher company. Jockey/trainer combination is one of the best of the meet. Has won at this distance previously. Trainer is 24% routing and should get a good trip today. 
Patriot Saint (#2): top three in three straight races. Jumps to $12,500 claiming after a win in $5,000 company. One mile is likely his preferred distance, should get a good pace setup and make a late run. 
Whiskey Wu (#7): Drops to this claiming level after competing in higher company. One concern is his only two wins have come on off track. Will get a pace to run at, question is will the class 
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