Laurel Racing Analysis- Friday Nov 9, 2018- By Joseph Hansen

Also check out his twitter @jhansendc

 

Race 1: 5-7-6 (Md 10000, 7F)

  1. Iwishiwaspecial (5): Really struggled with this race; I don’t like the probable odds-on favorite Gotnoquit as I’m sure he’ll be over-bet after running in southern California for Puype but he struggled there, even at the lower levels; I’ll take a shot with this one, cutting back to 7 furlongs (his 1-turn mile effort 2 back resulted in a 2nd place finish at the 16k level) and going turf to dirt; should be a decent price
  2. Hot on Time (7): Again, not too impressed with anything else in here, so why not one of the firsters; this one has been working steadily since the beginning of September and while the trainer isn’t great with maiden-claimer firsters (2/38) but 17 of those finished in the money
  3. Satchmo’s Crossing (8): The other firster, trainer is 2/7 with maiden claimer first time starters with a $13.25 ROI.  

Race 2: 2-1-7 (Md 25000, 2 year olds, 6F)

 

  • Vorian (2): Debut was an excellent learning experience; broke a little slow but found herself in between horses on the pace early; she checked awkwardly heading into the turn but fought on through the stretch; Gaudet on fire, including 2 wins on Thursday

 

  • Cool Man Cletus (1): Disappointed in last at short odds at this level, finishing 4th; however the winner came back to cross the wire first (DQ’ed) in an optional claimer, and third place finisher broke her maiden next out and subsequently finished 2nd in a first-level optional claimer
  • Belmont Ride (7): discussed Delacour’s stats with firsters last week, must respect this homebred; works on the slow side and price figures to be very short

 

 

Race 3: 7-5-2 (Clm 5000, 5.5F)

 

  • Pachi Cruze (7): Has a chance to turn the tables on a couple of rivals in here; in latest, he was battling for the lead and put away that pace rival but couldn’t hold off the 2 latecomers; 2 back at this level he couldn’t catch my second pick; now he gets the outside post where he can stalk and pounce, a tactic that’s worked for him this year

 

  • Sing Praises (5): Has one way to go, and will be sent from the get-go but it looks like the horse to his immediate outside might have the same plan; obviously dangerous if he gets a clear lead, which he’s done in last 2, both wins
  • Army Grey (2): Claudio trainee goes for 4 in a row, clearing the lifetime conditions quickly and winning at the beaten level last out; first time against open claimers, and is a definite contender.

 

 

Race 4: 5-2-3 (Md 10000, 7F)

  1. Moneigh Moproblems (5): This one will be a very short price but difficult to get past; gets out of NY where he was 3/5 in the money (6/12 lifetime), and drops to lowest level of career; best races are on turf but his trip 2 back, a similar one-turn 7 furlong effort at Belmont at the $20k level, will be plenty in here; Weaver is 3/8 shipping in to Laurel with Maiden Claimers with a positive ROI
  2. Gorbachov (2): A repeat of his last, where he opened an early lead and finished 3rd at the $16k level, makes him dangerous, as he’s probably the speed of the race.
  3. Ghostly Affair (3): Not sure what happened to him in latest where he pressed the pace on the outside but faded through the stretch; if you liked him at 7/2 that day, you’ll get at least double that price today as he drops back to the $10k level where he debuted and ran 3rd  

Race 5: 2-9-8 (Clm 5000N3L, F&M, 5.5F)

  1. Given Achance (2): Improving 3 year old paired-up career best Beyers and now goes first off the claim for Claudio who has hit 6/10 (with 9 in the money) over the past year first off the claim with last-out winners
  2. La Zoraya (9): Appears to be some speed to the inside, so this one can sit a nice outside trip on the substantial drop; filly took a long time to clear the N2L condition, but her last 2 put her right in the mix today
  3. Amazon Lizzie (4): The other short prices all have big question marks, so I land on this one for third hoping that she improves in her 2nd try over a dirt surface in addition to taking a big drop; note she is the only 3-time winner in the field, getting in under the open 3 year old condition

Race 6: 7-4-3 (OC 35k/C F&M, 1M)

  1. Sweet Candy Dance (7): Had a no-chance trip last out against a wire-to-wire winner but closed well to finish 2 clear of 3rd at the same level; figures to get a little quicker pace to close into on the cutback; trainer is 6/39 at Laurel but is 23/39 in the money, and is 4/5 in the money in allowance races here
  2. Barley Jack (4): Not sure anyone will be able to run with her in the early going so looms a very big presence here; she pressed the pace at this level and distance last out, took a clear lead but lost it late, finishing 4 clear of 3rd; note that she beat local favorite Caught Dream’n by 5 in a first-level allowance in August, and was up on the pace against stakes company 2 back
  3. Timeless Curls (3): Has yet to run a bad one in her short career, finishing in the money in all 6 starts; being inside the 4 horse may force her hand as far as the pace goes; she finished 2nd in June going this 1 turn mile in a MSW race, 4 clear of third

Race 7: 3-2-6 (Clm 5000N3L, F&M, 5.5F)

  1. Kid Croft (3): Won at this level in latest, but gets in under the open 3 year old condition; broke her maiden at the 25 level pretty handily and quickly cleared the N2L condition 2 starts later; obviously fits here.
  2. Holiday Magician (2): Another one that obviously fits the condition; back-to-back 3rd place finishes against better, cleared the N2L condition at the 10k level; figures to sit behind the outside speed
  3. Two Shy (6): Four-time winner is another one that gets in under the open 3 condition; throw out the effort 2 back at the N4L level in the slop, and she’s right there, with a win and a 2nd at higher in her last 3

Race 8: 4-11-10 (Clm 5000N2L, F&M, 5.5F)

  1. Very Charming (4): Three year old has been on the improve, Beyer-wise, in her last 4 and comes off a career best effort with a runner-up finish at the 7500N2L last out; Lake claimed her for $5k and I think he’s found her appropriate level after 2 starts for the barn; blinkers on, adding the bug and the slight drop all signal this one will probably be a factor early; race 2 back featured 2 next-out winners and 2 next-out place runners
  2. When it Reigns (11): Long layoff is a little scary, but her maiden breaker was very impressive at the maiden $16k level so figures to fit with these, especially if she can run the same number in her 4 year old debut; Robb is having a tremendous meet and legs up his top jock; third place finisher in last came back to win and subsequently took a state-bred allowance race
  3. Thalia’s Song (10): Class dropper has shown better on turf, but her third-place finish 2 back on the dirt was solid where she made a strong middle move to gain the lead in the stretch only to give it up late; Capuano is 50% in the money at the meet

Race 9: 8-7-11 (Md 25000, fillies, 2 year olds, 6F)

  1. Yesterdaysplan (8): Her maiden bow caught the eye, where she broke in the air from the inside post, rushed up to battle for the lead and fought gamely to just miss by a neck at 26/1, by far the longest shot on the board in that 5 horse field; this is the first time she’s available for purchase, dropping in from the $40k level at Delaware; with limited starters trainer has done pretty well (10/19 in the money at Laurel).  
  2. Nomocats (9): Well-supported on debut where she weakened late; Claudio is 3/9 in the last 5 years with 2 year old 2nd time starters with 5 in the money.  
  3. Myladycharlotte (11): Farrior is 2/5 with 2 year old first time starters at the maiden claiming level, with 4 finishing in the money; he’s also 4/10 (8 in the money) with maiden claimer firsters overall.  
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