December 21, 2018
Race 1: 7-3-8
Top 2 face off in a rematch from their 2-turn trip on November 29. Whirlin Curlin (7) hit a lull over the summer with some disappointing finishes, but easy win last out may signal he’s back to his good early form. Federal Walk (3) was right there with the top pick in the stretch and now gets a cut-back. Menacing (8) had an eventful trip last out and gets the benefit of the slight drop.
Race 2: 4-1-5
Lots of different ways to go in here. Pretty Enuff (4) figures to be prominent from the get-go and comes in off a neck loss to Moon Virginia who has kept company with some of the better fillies and mares on the circuit this year. She was 3 clear of the 3rd place finisher who came back to win next out (so did the 5th place finisher). Record speaks for itself. Lady Terp (1) is another one who likes to find the winner’s circle and with 3 wins in a row is in career best form, but will have to work out a trip from the rail. Bodega Bay (5) just ran to her best Beyer late in her 3 year old campaign and gets in light (117). The most recent for Follow the Petals (3) resulted in a number only one in this field can match, but she’s had quick paces to run into in her 2 most recent, and is vulnerable without a pace setup.
Race 3: 5-1-4
Souper Echo (5) has been close against similar in last 2, including a close runner-up to in-form S W Briar Rose (next-out winner and winner of 6/9). Le Weekend (1) was a close 3rd to a very good local horse in Adios Annie at a big price and gets some class relief here. Off My Stage (4) is very interesting at a potentially big price. She debuted late in her 2 year old season in a stakes race, and broke her maiden next out easily at the MSW level. She’s been on the shelf since January when she was last (beaten 6) in a race that featured stakes winners Limited View and Enchanted Ghost. If she’s physically sound, we can expect improvement for this 3 year old. Is Ghoul’s Night Out (6) that good now, after running that big Beyer last out? Maybe, but looking for value elsewhere as I can’t see her going off anywhere near the 2/1 morning line.
Race 4: 3-9-6
Competitive N2L event here, would spread if possible. Hero’s Hope (3) put in a good middle move in last but couldn’t sustain through the stretch. He’s dropping in class so a similar move should offer a better chance at the victory. He broke his maiden on the turf, but his dirt form is keeps him in the hunt. Bay Hill (9) just put up his best dirt Beyer in most recent and 2 back broke his maiden for 25k over this same track and distance. Might just be rounding back into form. I have to think that I’ve Gotta Plan (6) just didn’t care for the track last out because his prior effort at this level would probably make him the favorite here. Note he broke his maiden in the slop here in September.
Race 5: 13-5-2
It’s tough to get by the favorite War Tweet (13) even though she’s 0/12. She gets to the lowest level on the PPs, and she’s already hit the board 6 times, flashing speed in many of those tries. She doesn’t meet the toughest bunch here either. Hey Mabel (5) burned money at this level the last 2 and while she’s only hit the board once in her 6 tries at the mile, some of those efforts were against better and resulted in Beyers that might get it done here. Spooky Tooth (2) figures to be coming along late, but is tough to endorse on top with her style of running.
Race 6: 2-3-9
Post position is so important at this distance, and I hate taking an outside post on top, so that narrows it down from the get go. We land on Ingadore (2) who stretches out to 2 turns where he’s had some success against better. He figures to be prominent from the opening bell. Ride This Train (3) has a win over the wet track and a good finish in his latest, a peak in his current Beyer cycle.
Race 7: 3-2-6
Atlantic Avenue’s (3) effort in the slop last out was a good one, and other than her debut she’s always given a good account of herself at this level. Figures to be a slightly better price than War of the States (2) who stretched out and improved nicely in her 2nd career start; winner of that one was a California shipper who out-classed the field. Lemon Drop Kitty (6) was disappointing in her return off a long layoff, never in contention in November against similar, but her effort in February in the slop makes her competitive, and the cutback should help.
Race 8: 7-13-3
Yesterdaysplan (7) was my top pick in November at this level where was a disappointing 3rd as the even money favorite. She was claimed out of that one by Claudio and note her debut in the slop at Delaware was a nice effort. Tuffy’s Way (13) drops to this level for the first time, race 2 back had 2 next-out winners (including a stakes victory for the winner) and another horse who won 2 starts later. Winner from the September try just destroyed a first-level allowance field last week. Allison K (3) gets back to the debut level where she was second (clear of 3rd by 2).
Race 9: 4-6-8
The last 2 for Shipmans Magic (4), both on the turf, were by far her best efforts to date on the Beyer scale. Most will assume that it’s all because of the surface switch, but her development as a 3 years old has to account for some of that improvement, doesn’t it? She did break her maiden very easily in June in an off-the-turf event at Pen over a fast track. Price will be appealing. Nothing to knock about On the Hop (6) who has back to back wins at this level and sports 7 wins in 15 career starts. Musabaqa (8) is another one that, from a value perspective, is tough to ignore. A complete no-show in her last, her other 4 dirt tries resulted in 3 wins including against similar at Churchill 2 back. Farrior has had some success with bringing them in from the Midwest.