Race 1: 1-7-4
Bottom-level beaten claimers to open the card; we’ll go with the 2 class droppers, since the rest of the field has been less than impressive at this level recently.
Race 2: 4-3-2
Manhattan Lady (4) was nosed at the wire in the 3-turn route at CT last out after making a middle move and opening up heading into the final turn; both efforts at the nickel level were her best to date. Dancingwithpaynter (3) was also caught late at this level last out, obviously fits. Congratstomywife (2) comes in off a maiden breaker at the 10k level, should also fit with these.
Race 3: 7-6-3
Arrive in Style (7) couldn’t hold on at 7f for this price tag last out and this gelding’s efforts sprinting all came at the maiden special weight level; note he was 4 clear of Petion Night who subsequently blasted a number of these in his next outing. Dilodovico hit with a firster a few weeks ago, and Bullets Child (6) sports a bullet work and has a couple of half-siblings who broke their maidens early at this level or better. Probable second choice (maybe favorite) Throw the Fade (3) is first off the claim for Kieron but takes an immediate drop in from 40k off a dull effort. Kieron spots them well, but this drop is a little too suspicious for me.
Race 4: 4-6-2
Jefazo (4) comes in off a career-best Beyer with a win at Parx last out; 4 horses have come back to run out of that race, and all have hit the board including the runner-up who won a starter allowance on the 29th; gelding was a $300k purchase who hardly runs a bad one but had to steadily drop the maiden claiming ladder to break his maiden 3 back but his most recent 2 show he’s in good form late in his 3 year old campaign. Blame the Kids (6) is another 3 year old who is coming off 2 solid efforts; caught Big City Blues last out, and that one was coming off a win. Not sure what happened with Done Acting (2) in last where he broke fine but retreated; McMahon has been in the money with 7 of his last 13 off the claim, and his effort 2 back where he was just 2 behind the in-form Mandel puts him in the mix at a price.
Race 5: 10-11-1
Race 6: 4-3-5
A few weeks ago I made Reigning Fire (4) the top pick in a maiden special weight but she scratched out, instead working 5f that day and adding a gate work since. We’ll stick with her today at a price. End Result (3) has been solid in both of her career starts including a runner-up on debut to Fashion Faux Pas who won a stakes race at Tampa; that race also featured 3 next-out winners. Shanghai Bonnie (10) figures to take money here, as she was impressive on debut in Saratoga. That was in August however, and that field hasn’t proven to be a great bunch. She has been working steadily since November including a bullet this week. Think she’ll be too short for my liking.
Race 7: 5-7-3
I liked What What What (5) a couple of weeks ago when she scratched out of a handicap and my analysis generally remains the same; this is a pretty competitive allowance and you can go in a few different directions, and her price will also be attractive. I will probably regret not putting Bells Irish Fancy (7) on top here as she has a pretty significant last-out Beyer edge and that effort was a good one, putting away a shorter priced rival with the other horses that rounded out the trifecta being at the back of the pack at the first quarter; race also featured 2 next-out winners and 2 other horses who ran 2nd next out. That Beyer was by far her career best, and there’s at least a chance that she reverts back to her normal which is not much better than some of the others in here and she’ll be a short price. I usually don’t like horses shipping in that have run exclusively on synthetic/turf, but if I’ll Take the Cake (3) carries her form, she’ll be in the mix at a price. Trainer has yet to start one at the meet, and he also brings 2 others in from Woodbine to compete in the finale, so watch this one with interest.
Race 8: 5-2-1
Let’s try a price in here as many of the favorites have been tailing off. Bob’s My Uncle (5) takes a step up in class first off the claim for Tessore where he won in the off going. Note he also won in the slop earlier this year, and while he doesn’t have a win at the distance, he’s been on the board 9/12. Prime Time Man (2) figures to sit a nice trip, hoping he stalks the rail horse to get first run on the closers; big chance. Roman Approval (1) figures to get bet off of his back class but that was going long on the turf for Maker. His Beyers have been going in the wrong direction lately, and is now entered for less than half the claiming price 4 back. If the track is speed favoring, he’ll have an edge, and I would expect him to go off as the favorite, but a few question marks come along.
Race 9: 2-6-1Interesting maiden race here as many of these have shown promise on the turf or synthetic, so many have question marks on how they will handle the dirt (which will probably be wet as well). Dumtadumtadum (2) is one of those turfers but she does have experience over the dirt, both at the maiden special level, and both efforts would probably be good enough here. Mike the Tiger (6) has a good finish in the slop 2 back sprinting at this level where he was just behind Sonic Boom E Jet who has turned into a solid allowance horse at the track; tough to put on top with the running style, but he’ll be coming late. If Chircop’s horse runs well in the 7th, you can move up the chances of the entry.