Laurel Park Racing Analysis — Sunday, October 28, 2018, by Jeff Byrnes

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Picks also include races that come off turf. With heavy rain Saturday, expect an off track Sunday. 
Race 1: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT $40,000 Six furlongs
Picks: 6-4-5
Not Sure (#6): Finished 2nd in career debut on off track, which he might get Sunday. Trainer is 21% with second time starters and 24% when shipping. Has speed to outside and a good jockey/trainer combination. 
Atlantic Avenue (#4): Most experienced horse in the field, in the money in five of seven career starts. Has two seconds over this distance. The works coming in are very good and should be coming late again. 
Star Seed Child (#5): Worthy long shot as he is first off the claim where his new trainer is 34% with 1st off the claim and 21% in maiden special weights. Gets a top jockey in Victor Carrasco. Will likely sit off the pace and make a middle move late. 
Race 2: WAIVER MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000 – $35,000 
Six furlongs 
Picks: 7-5-2
Sky Magician (#7): Entered for Main track only, has three second place finishes in three career starts. This horse is the top of the class over what is left of this race. Comes in off second in a stakes race last out. Good jockey/trainer combination. Must use.
Honor Run (#5): Entered for main track only. Finished 2nd in $40,000 maiden claimer last out at Saratoga. Comes in off fast work last week and pedigree suggests he could like off track. Could be on the lead if pace setters don’t go. 
Semper Partaus (#2): Longshot look. This horse ships in from New York and has three career dirt starts. He drops from $75,000 to $40,000 today, much needed class relief. Also, first time gelding, expect a much more relaxed horse and a charge late. 
Race 3: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT $40,000 Six furlongs
Picks: 7–2-3
Positivist (#7): Makes second career start today. Get first time lasix as well. Comes in off second at Delaware Park. Trainer is 33% with first time lasix and pedigree is same crossover as Abel Tasman. This crossover has won on off tracks many times in the past. Must use. 
More Mo (#2): Makes career debut today. Pedigree suggests he can handle off track. Uncle Mo has good track record of producing first time winners. Good jockey/trainer combination. Expect to be coming late. 
Master Distiller (#3): Makes career debut today. Trainer is 28% with first time starters and 24% in dirt starts. Solid works coming in and should be fresh on speed. He sets moderate fractions, he could go all the way. 
Race 4: CLAIMING $16,000 – $14,000 One Mile
Picks: 8-12-4
City Gold (#8): Comes off a sharp 8 1/2 length win last out over a sloppy Laurel Park track. Race was at same level at today, if there are plenty of scratches he can go to lead and not look back. Trainer is 30% in claimer repeats, and 25% in last out wins. 
No Drinking Rules (#12): Comes in off two straight wins including on off track last time out. He is 2 for 3 on an off track and will get a good pace to sit off of. Trainer is 20% shipping and 24% claiming repeats. Must use. 
In Him With Him: (#4): Horse has run on dirt in all 12 starts and has a placing on off track. Entered in main track only, he has a good shot in here with a smaller field. He has two seconds in four starts at a mile. Could be shorter price at post time.
Race 5: CLAIMING $20,000 Six furlongs
Picks: 13-9-8
In Arrears (#13): Entered for main track only, this horse is 2 for 8 on an off track and drops from allowance company to claiming ranks. This is the lowest level race he has run in his career. Should get a good pace to run at and come late. 
Team Tim (#9): Main track only, he won at Laurel Park on a sloppy track last year and runs well over the track, jockey/trainer combination has been good this meet. Smaller field helps this one’s chances. 
Nick the Cardshark (#8): Off track pedigree and won at this distance three starts back. New trainer, he is 31% first off the claim. Could set the pace and good long way if not challenged. 
Race 6: CLAIMING $16,000 – $14,000 5 1/2 furlongs
Picks: 6-1-4
Hot Mic (#6): Second at this level last time out, he faces a subpar group here and has a good record over a off track. Trainer is 20% in claiming races. Will rate off a good pace and get first run. Must use. 
Trusting Friend (#1): Won two straight races and in the money in five straight, Trainer is 24% shipping into Laurel and 27% in claimer repeats. He could go to lead or sit just off. Has a pedigree that can handle off track. Could be nice price. 
Big Bella Brown (#4): Drops to $16,000 claiming after competing against much tougher in optionals. Picks up Trevor McCarthy for the first time and has solid workout pattern. Will be coming late. 
Race 7: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000 Seven Furlongs 
Picks: 5-1-3
Swinging Star (#5): Pedigree suggest he can handle off track, comes in off 3rd against tougher group in same class. Trevor McCarthy back aboard after running his best race in a long time. Expect a mid pack run and closing kick. 
To Blave (#1): Comes off a win last time out with Edwin Gonzalez aboard for the first time. Now, he gets the rail and his trainer is 19% when racing after a win last out. He’s finished in the top 4 in five straight starts. Expect him to be close early before coming late. 
Takedown (#3): Drops to lowest level of his career and drops from stakes company in which he has taken on the likes of Core Beliefs, Lone Sailor, and Diamond King. He is stakes placed on an off track, so it shouldn’t be too big a concern.
Race 8: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000 Seven Furlongs
Picks: 10-9-4
Uno Dancer (#10): Drops from $42,000 allowance company to $25,000 claiming and turns to shortest distance of career. Seven furlongs maybe perfect for him. Trainer is 23% in route to sprints and outside post means he will haver to go. He is a pacesetter so he could be in front to take them along the way.
Hero’s Hope (#9): Finished 2nd at this level last time out. Speed figures get better with every race. Forest Boyce returns to saddle after giving him best chance to win. Must get clean gate break to be in the hunt. 
Sparty (#4): Last race was a throw out, bumped around and never liked the soft turf, now gets back on dirt where was beaten a nose at this level two starts back.Trainer is 20% in route to sprint. He likes to be on the lead, so expect him to go early. Longshot worth a look.
Race 9: ALLOWANCE $42,000 One mile
Picks: 1-4-3
Another Broad (#1): Won two straight by combined seven lengths and comes in off a sharp work last week. She is two for two over a sloppy track, and in career form. She might be the best play of the day. 
Fashion Week (#4): Is 1 for 10 in her career, but that one win came at Laurel Park. Trainer is 26% at this meet and is 20% when off more than 50 days. She has worked solidly coming in and pedigree suggests she should handle the off going. Nice play here. 
Take Charge Tina (#3): She has been getting better her last three starts, improving in the placings. She catches a smaller field than previous runs. She should get pace to run at this time. 
Race 10: WAIVER MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000 – $35,000 
One Mile
Picks: 11-9-1
Ask Stacy: Ask Stacy will likely race on an off track tomorrow, where it three starts, she has a second place finish on the off going. trainer is 21% when going from maiden to maiden claiming. She posted a sharp work last week and has shown to handle dirt. She will likely get on the lead, if so, she can go a long way. 
Lookin Sharp (#9): goes from sprinting to routing for the first time. Pedigree suggests she can get the distance no problem. Trainer is 22% at the meet and picks up leading rider Alex Cintron. Will be close early. Gets a good trip and will be picking it up late. 
Tuffy’s Way (#1): Goes two turns for the first time and drops back to maiden claiming levels after first start. By Jump Start, one mile should be no problem.  Trevor McCarthy picks up the mount and with a smaller field, will be given a good price and worth a look.  
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