Laurel Park Racing Analysis — Sunday, December 9, 2018, by Jeff Byrnes

Competitive card, two year olds, and some nice claimers. Worth some nice plays!

Race 1: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT   One Mile Picks: 8-3-5


Her Royal Highness (#8): Was a driving second on debut last time and now gets more ground and distance. Trainer is 20% in second career starts and one of the best trainer/jockey numbers of the meet. Will get speed to run at and will be coming late. Must use. 
Clara Allen (#3): Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin makes a rare appearance at Laurel Park and when he ships, he means business. He is 26$ with shippers and 23% in second career starts. Clara Allen gets to go the mile and the class drop that she needs. She will get pace, and her works from Belmont are super. At 10/1 she has an upset chance. 
End Result (#5): Ran a high 76 beyer number in career debut and stretches out to a mile. Will be on the pace and will get first jump. Good works coming in and solid works, good chance. 


Race 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000 5 1/2 furlongs Picks: 10-2-3
Gatea St Honore (#10): Drops to lowest level claimer in her career and gets a new rider in Carol Cedeno. Trainer is 22% in maiden claimers and 25% in sprints. Expect a hot pace up front and for her to be coming late. 
Justanarch (#2): In the superfecta in four straight starts, was second beaten a half length in last race at this level. She will be the pace, expect a hot one, but class and edge can be enough. 
Bagels and Lox (#3): Making first start since June but has a good record at Laurel Park and drops to lowest level of her career. She has turned in solid works coming in and looks ready to go. She will be near the lead. If favorites have tough day, look out for this one. 


Race 3: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $50,000   One Mile Picks: 1-5-6
Tiz He the One (#1): Winner of two straight by a combined 13 lengths, this gelding is on a roll. Posting back to back 90 plus beyers, he will likely be on the lead from the rail. Trainer is 27% in last out winners. Successful jockey/trainer combo, must use.
Saratoga Jack (#5): Was second behind Bonus Points last time out and received a 95 beyer for the race. Competed in stakes company in the past and has class to get it done.Will be among the leaders. 
Even Thunder (#6): Stretches back out in distance after a 5th in sprint company. This horse has received strong beyers and comes in with sharp workouts. With a good pace, he’ll be coming late. 


Race 4: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT   5 1/2 Furlongs Picks: 12-6-1
Danz a Rebel (#12): Second or third in four lifetime starts, this colt is primed for a victory. His beyer numbers are largely consistent compared to the others, he has mid pack speed in a field full of speed. Trainer is 20% with two year olds, and Trevor McCarthy is aboard. 
Smile Bryan (#6): Has plenty of speed and has experience. Was a game second in his last start. Will be second time last where trainer is 14%. Good jockey/trainer combination. 
Going for Gold (#1): Debuts today where he gets the rail and speed. Trainer is 11% with first time starters. He has turned in very steady works and will get good ground. 


Race 5: CLAIMING $16,000 – $14,000   One Mile Picks: 9-6-8
Forty Acres (#9): Has won three out of last six starts and was third in the other three. Speed figures are largely consistent than other and shows ability to rate or go to front. Trainer is 19% in claimer repeats. Must use.
Social Stranger (#6): Broke slow and lost all chance last time out. Two back was a wire to wire winner at the $5,000 level. One mile should be a great distance for him.If he can get to the lead, he had a good chance to upset. 
Done Acting (#8): Drops from allowance company back to level where he won four starts back.He is a late closer and will get pace to run at.


Race 6: STARTER HANDICAP $16,000  Five Furlongs Picks: 6-2-7
Took Over (#6): Winner by over eight lengths in his last start, he cuts back in distance and has plenty of speed to get it done. Trainer is 19% with last out winners. Speed figures consistent, and will be tough.
Chief of Staff (#2): Drops in class and gets a shorter distance today. Has the second best prime power numbers in this field. Can go to lead and can sit off. Has the inside which is a big help.
Key Mono (#7): Winner of three of his last five starts, five furlongs is good distance for him. Trainer is 21% with horses second off the layoff. All three wins have come wire to wire, will be on the pace. 


Race 7: CLAIMING $5,000  One Mile Picks: 11-5-8
Girl Drama (#11): Making first start on the east coast after competing at Santa Anita and Del Mar. She drops to the lowest level of her career. Trainer is 21% when off a layoff and 33% when dropping down two classes. You get the leading trainer here with a new horse. Must use. 
Paz the Wine (#5): Won at the $10,000 level last time out and now drops to $5,000 here. Solid jockey/ trainer combination here, this horse has runs consistent beyer numbers and will get pace. 
Dancingwithpaynter (#8): Drops from $16,000 to $5,000 level today. Trainer is 18% when dropping two classes. She will get a moderate pace and has a good closing kick, in for upset chance. 


Race 8: ALLOWANCE $42,000  One Mile Picks: 7-2-8
Miz Creed (#7): Wide open race leads to here. This filly goes the mile for the first time and should love the distance. Won on debut going seven but cut back and finished third last out. Trainer is 21% in sprint to routes and 23% in routes. She posted a sharp five furlong work last time and will be among the pace setters. 
Firth (#2): Winner at this distance and level last time out, this filly has speed and has the inside. She has consistent beyer numbers and trainer is 19% with last out winners. Could be dangerous. 
Cilantro (#8) Makes her Laurel Park debut today with new trainer, who is 18% in first start with new trainers. Has competed against much tougher and drops in here. All her races have had 80 plus beyers. Upset chance.


Race 9: CLAIMING $5,000    5 1/2 furlongs Picks: 3-1-9
Doit for Spite (#3): Ran lights out last time after being hung wide and bumped around. She gets a good post today and much needed class relief. Trainer is 17% with horses second off the claim. Will get a good pace, as a mid pack runner she will get first run. 
Thalia’s Song (#1): Gets a fast track for today and has the best prime power average of the group. The trainer is 21% with claimers and with the rail, can save ground for a late run. 
Tidy Stripe (#9): Runs for new connections and she gets back to the $5,000 level. She also get blinkers for the first time, trainer is 14% with first time horses and 20% with first time blinkers. From the outside, she will likely stay back, she will be coming late. 

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