Race 1: MdClm $40k 1M Turf
1st: #1 Outofthepark, watching his last out race when Rodney Jenkins took the blinkers off you see a horse making an incredible effort to make up ground in the stretch and he nearly gets there. Adequate speed here from the 3 and a couple others that like to be close that there should be the pace needed for this one to make his run late.
2nd: #3 Lion Charmer, his speed should suit him well in this field as there aren’t too many challengers for the front but it’s hard to know how speed against routers will fare against sprinters. I think his speed lasts until very very late and then he’s passed.
3rd: #8 Five Alarm Robin, probably the post-time favorite a $150k purchase at Keeneland September and a couple nice tries in MdSpWt events in New York going longer. The two back try is solid but he doesn’t look like he has the closing ability needed nor does he have the speed to keep up on the front end. He’s in a weird position.
Like the 9 a lot at a price gets McCarthy and is improving.
Race 2: MdSpWt $40k F&M 6F
1st: #6 My Queen Michelle, Claudio Gonzalez debuter here who has thrown up a number of solid drills. Nothing much jumps out at me in this field but Gonzalez usually has them ready hitting at 25% with debuters.
2nd: #3 Sea Story, moves from the turf where she had two decent efforts going shorter than today’s 6F. Trainer doesn’t exactly give confidence but the two back breeze was excellent going 47 and 1.
3rd: #7 Pensaba, Kelly Rubley has this one ready to go after a number of published works up at Fair Hill.
Race 3: The Selima Stakes $200k 2 Year Old Fillies 1 & 1/16thM Turf
1st: #4 Love Beach, Mike Stidham’s $150k purchase at Keeneland September last year broke her maiden at first asking rallying from a couple lengths behind at Colonial to earn a 61 Beyer. She’s drilling well and retains the services of top local pilot Trevor McCarthy.
2nd: #1 Rising Bella, last seen narrowly missing in the Sorority up at Mth in her first turf try at 20-1 and earning a decent 58 Beyer. Reason to believe she’ll improve off that effort and Pecoraro and Rose are absolutely on fire teaming up at 34% over the last year and a half.
3rd: #7 Sharing, Graham Motion trainee broke her maiden in a washed off event at Saratoga going 7F last out. Her loan turf try was decent and she certainly came running at the end of a turf sprint where the fractions were hot.
Race 4: Alw $42k 5 & ½F
1st: #4 By the Sey Shore, off since March Trombetta clearly thought highly of this gelding as he kept improving his Beyers throughout the winter and lost to some eventual stakes winners like Win Win Win and Wendell Fong. Some really nice drills he should be ready for the sprint and will have ample pace in front of him to reel in.
2nd: #6 Stroll Smokin, logical play here coming off a whopping 90 Beyer in restricted allowance. That effort was a considerable outlier and I’m going to assume he won’t run right back to that number here.
3rd: #2 Runforthemunnings, another of the seemingly endless pool of front runners in here, toss the last out effort where he got ran off his feet at Sar, the two back locally was really good
Race 5: The Laurel Futurity $200k 2 Year Olds 1 & 1/16thM Turf
1st: #4 Field Pass, two routing trips on turf a maiden win and a second place effort in the G3 With Anticipation at Sar. Crucial to this pick is the second place finisher in the maiden breaking win Decorated Invader came back to break his own maiden next out at Sar and just followed that up with a win in the G1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine last weekend. So this horse has beaten a G1 winner.
2nd: #7 Doc Boy, somewhat similar angle here, this one broke his maiden at Laurel and followed it up with a win in the Kitten’s Joy at Colonial in front of Cadet Connelly who just came back to finish second in the aforementioned G1 Summer Stakes.
3rd: #3 The Quantico Kid, Trombetta trainee adding blinkers who was third in the Kittens Joy behind Doc Boy and Cadet Connelly.
Race 6: The Bald Eagle Derby $150k 3 Year Olds 1 & ½M Turf
1st: #7 He’s No Lemon, marathon affair here, this one has shown willingness to travel the distance winning twice at 11F and two other in the money performances at the same distance across 4 total tracks. Improving Beyer figures, Motion+McCarthy, easy pick.
2nd: #4 Jais’s Solitude, a quickly improving horse that just won going a mile and has been really close going 9F. looks like the type that wants to run on and Eddie Kenneally is always a threat shipping in.
3rd: #6 Channel Island, a lot of siblings of this one have gone on to be monsters of the turf like their father, champion turf master English Channel. This one has shown ability at 10F at Belmont and has been right behind He’s No Lemon. Toss the race at KD.
Race 7: The Grade III Baltimore/Washington International Turf Cup $200k 1M Turf
1st: #5 Macagone, I’ve seen this story before with Jason Servis claimers that turn into incredible racehorses. 95 Beyer last out at Sar crushing state-bred allowance horses indicates he’s ready for graded company and further improvement off that one should put him squarely in line with the best in this field.
2nd: #7 Caribou Club, couldn’t blame you if put this one on top, third off the layoff he should be ready to run to his best which is G2 winner and triple digit Beyer. Horse has proven to love Laurel going 2 for 3 over this sod.
3rd: #8 Glorious Empire, the deserving turf champion of 2018 before he was robbed by Stormy Liberal, this is clearly the most talented horse in the field, but he hasn’t been out since December when a leg injury sidelined him. Chuck Lawrence has nursed him back to health at Fair Hill but even so 1 mile isn’t his best distance, have to think this is just a conditioning effort before a try in the Breeder’s Cup.
Race 8: The Grade III Frank J De Francis Memorial Dash $250k 6F
1st: #2 Killybeg’s Captain, hasn’t won since March but has been keeping perhaps the best company among sprinters in the country. Last out he finished third just 3 lengths behind Mitole and basically even with multiple G1 winner Firenze Fire. In the last furlong of the Forego he was basically running the same speed as Mitole, not gaining or losing any ground. 9-2 is a great opportunity.
2nd: #3 Altissimo, owner of the most triple-digit Beyers in the field, the speed is legit and he will be in good shape getting the lead the early lead from his post draw. May not have the class but he won’t fall far behind if he doesn’t win.
3rd: #6 He Hate Me, definitely like his running style in a field with a couple less classy speedsters, he should be able to make up ground in the stretch. Maybe he even wins.
Race 9: The Laurel Dash Stakes $100k 5 & ½F Turf
1st: #3 Square Shooter, 2 for 3 locally and he’s been buzzing on the precipice of graded stakes company. Shekky Shebazz really ran them off their feet and the turf was playing so speedy, but he was just a length behind Disco Partner a multiple G1 winner and earlier in the year was just 3 lengths behind Imprimis and Bound For nowhere. Needs to use his speed.
2nd: #8 Dubini, second place finisher in this event last year, has yet to win in 3 tries over this turf but he’s in top form currently with 4 straight Beyers in the 90s and has that closing kick that should get him close when they straighten away.
3rd: #7 Dr. Shane, Danny Gargan ships down from New York. Simply a high quality horse who’s amassed $560k in earnings. Gets McCarthy to ride.
Race 10: The Sensible Lady Turf Dash Stakes $100k F&M 5 & ½F Turf
1st: #1 Escapade, second off the layoff for Jonathan thomas who ships this one down for a second time after getting the win in the return. Horse seems to win wherever he goes and he should improve today. Rail draw, should go right to the lead.
2nd: #11 Fire Key, the highest and most consistent Beyers in the field, this one nearly won a G3 in the 3 back and probably would have if it was at today’s distance. Two stakes tries at Sar, should get a bit of relief in this field.
3rd: #12 Fear No Evil, 2 for 4 locally for trainer Tom Albertrani. Most recently less than a length behind Goldwood, who would have been my top pick in this one if I thought she was coming down to Laurel. She’s recently won 4 in a row.
Race 11: The Weathervane Stakes $100k 3 Year Old Fillies 6F
1st: #8 Take Charge Angel, cross-entered down at Churchill so I think she stays home, but she’s run within 1 length of perhaps the fastest female on the planet Covfefe back in April. Last out earned a field-best 90 Beyer.
2nd: #6 Needs Supervision, first back since February, ODwyer clearly had big plans for this one when he tried the G2 Rachel Alexandra which was won by Serengti Empress. Most recent drill ultra impress 47 flat breezing from the gate, she should be ready to go.
3rd: #3 Meadow Dance, Brad Cox shipping this one up from Kentucky, she’s won two in a row so far this summer and last year was 3rd in the G1 Alcibiades.
Race 12: MdClm $40k 7F
1st: #6 Street Silence, rarely pick debuters but this homebred for Larry Johnson trained by Mike Trombetta is training so nicely at Fair Hill and the field is weak.
2nd: #7 Zieg, has the top Beyers in the field and the distance relief should help.
3rd: #2 Mystic Times, got on the dirt for the first time in his last and got second. Beyers trending the wrong direction.