NOTE: all picks are made assuming that all races will be on the dirt.
Race 1: Claiming $16,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
2- Mrs. Rembrandt: As a 3-year-old filly, she’s exempt from the wins restriction in this race, and as such has already piled up two wins against n/w3L claiming company. Broke her maiden by ten lengths when going the one-turn mile here back in March, and should have absolutely no problem going the distance.
3- Lonely Drifter: Cleared her n/w2L condition last out with an easy win at this distance, earning a strong brisnet figure of 77, which is just two points off the best last-out figure in the race. This race definitely represents a jump up in class, but considering she hasn’t yet lost at the level, and is proven at the distance, she must be respected.
14- Stetson Gold: She’s unproven going a mile, but she’s the clear early speed of the field. If she can get away with an uncontested early lead, she may not be caught.
Race 2: Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs
4- Enterprise Value: Has won her last two attempts in off-the-turf races. The only bad race in her last five was on the funky half-mile track at Timonium; outside of that, she’s been in razor-sharp form. Gets some class relief here and should have this field at her mercy.
2- Stella Nova: Ran a great race at Delaware Park last out, where she battled gamely for the lead and ended up losing by a neck. Comes in here off a bullet workout, going three furlongs in 36 seconds last Saturday. Her plan is to go straight to the front and just keep going.
12- Le Weekend: She was outclassed in her last race at Delaware Park, where she never was a factor against n/w2x allowance company. Prior to that, she had run figures of 86 and 83 when winning against n/w1x horses and starter allowance foes, respectively. Drops back in against easier company here, and should rate just off the pace on the outside.
Race 3: Claiming $5,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles
5- Ridgemont High: Made decent ground in the stretch when finishing second in her last race. Has lost against n/w2L claiming horses twice, which, while not great, is better than most of her rivals. Comes in here off four improving brisnet figures in a row. The primary drawback: her closing style leaves her at the mercy of the early pace.
2- Gfour: Her best races by far have been around two turns; she broke her maiden by eleven lengths going today’s distance back in June, and finished third against much better company back in August. Her last two races were dull, but she’s got the opportunity to improve while stretching out.
1- Pure Passion: In a cheap field without early pace, she’s shown speed in the past, and has an advantageous post. If allowed an easy early lead, she might be able to steal it.
Race 4: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 2yo, Fillies, 6 Furlongs
2- Our Super Freak: Crushed a maiden field at Delaware Park last out, winning in impressive fashion while earning a figure of 86. Trainer Jamie Ness is 27% with horses who just broke their maidens. Will be a factor on the early pace, and her late pace figures ensure that she’ll be around till the end.
6- Olive Kat: Improved eighteen points when defeating a marginal maiden field last time out. The race she ran was impressive enough that she must be respected here, but may find things a bit tougher than last time.
3- Getouttamyway: Two races back, she broke her maiden very impressively at Parx. Unfortunately for her, she followed it up with an inexplicably dull effort as the favorite. If you still believe, she should be a much better price than last time. I’m willing to give her one more chance.
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, 1 Mile
1- Gearhead: Closed strongly last time to just miss in a similar race. Gets blinkers for the first time, and is proven at this distance. Must be respected.
11- Danz a Rebel: Had a rough trip last time, when he was shuffled back after a quarter of a mile. He rebounded well to finish second behind favored Passcode, who is probably a better horse than anything he’ll see here. The only question: can he stretch out from six furlongs?
4- The Keeper: Lost a lot of his mojo last out after an awkward beginning. He’s closed well in both of his starts, so he’s got a shot at getting at least some minor awards by picking up the pieces.
Race 6: Claiming $8,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
2- Pacific Ridge: He had great form earlier in the year, but then he bled in a race at Pimlico. He was a non-threatening fifth in his first start off the layoff, but can certainly improve in his second race back. If he returns to his form earlier in the year, which saw him win three races while consistently running figures in the 80s, he’s going to be tough.
8- Howboutthemcowboys: He’s got some of the best late pace figures, which complements his stalking style very well. He’s come in the top two in his last three races, including a win two races back at Delaware Park. Must be respected.
4- El Grillo: Another one coming in with strong Delaware form; this one won his last two races, improving his figure in each of his last four races. Looks to be in prime form coming in here.
Race 7: Claiming $16,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
1- Space Shuttle: Drops to the n/w2L claiming level for the first time, always a good thing to see in races like this. He’s got a ton of early speed, and gets lots of class relief as he finally leaves n/w1x allowance company. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up going off as a solid favorite, but he’s a good horse to build a pick 4 or pick 5 play around.
8- Salinger: He’s been a classic “close but no cigar” type in his last few, finishing second or third in his last three races, all of them at this level. Definitely a horse who should be used in exacta and trifecta plays, but can he be trusted to win at low odds? I don’t think so.
5- Poplar Avenue: He’s going to try and wire this field. He’s lost his last five races at less than 3/1, most of them against similar company as today. Looks like another type to be used underneath, but I don’t really see him winning.
Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 2yo, 1 Mile
1- Durkin’s Call: Crushed a maiden field going a mile last out, earning an excellent figure of 78. He’ll look to duplicate that race here, and will have to be “splashtastic” to do. I trust him.
7- Invigorous: Broke his maiden in sharp fashion over a sloppy track at Monmouth Park two races ago. He disappointed against stakes company at Presque Isle Downs, but now gets some class relief. The distance is the primary question; he’s never gone beyond 6 1/2 furlongs.
5- Three Phase: Anyone who believes in the “lightbulb” angle ought to back this longshot. He broke his maiden in his seventh start last out, while going today’s distance. He’s got a good stalking style, which enables him to easily take over for any tired leaders. Can’t be dismissed at possible high odds.
Race 9: Starter Optional Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 7 Furlongs
1- Lightworker: Ships in from New York and gets lots of class relief, having last run against n/w1x NY-bred allowance company at Saratoga. She ran a big figure of 83 when breaking her maiden two back, and if she repeats that, will be tough.
8- Superstar Diva: Arlington invader broke her maiden there two races back, and came flying to get second there last out. She’s not a proven loser at this level, always a good sign, and ran a lifetime top in each of her last two races.
4- Eighty Six Mets: Makes her third start off the layoff here, and ran good figures in her last two races. She disappointed at this level as the 1/2 favorite last out, but cuts back in distance and gets a switch back to Jevian Toledo. I wouldn’t bet her to win at low odds, but she’s a must-use in multi-race bets.
Race 10: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 2yo, 1 Mile
14- Brazen Prince: Ran a solid figure of 67 on debut at Delaware Park, finishing third while well clear of most of his rivals. He should improve second time out, and looks to enjoy the extra distance.
2- Biz Nasty: Finished fifth against similar at Churchill Downs last out after a wide trip. Should save more ground, and makes his first start in the Claudio Gonzalez barn.
5- Tri Try Colors: He ran an even third in his lone try at this distance, but earned a career-best figure of 70.