Race 1: Clm $25k 3 Year Olds 1M
1st: #5 M G Broker, don’t know what price you’ll get here but will certainly be lower than the 6-5ML. This one has the highest Beyers in the field and is coming off back to back romps of 10 and 9 lengths respectively at lower claiming levels ($8k and then $12.5k). The added class here shouldn’t hurt him 9 lengths. 3 straight wins locally, was claimed out of all 3.
2nd: #6 Success Hurricane, also will be on or close to the lead, Wayne Potts brings him to Maryland after an allowance win at Charles Town last month going shorter. Have to figure it’s about equal class levels. Beyers are solid, low 60s.
3rd: #1 Top Hat Warrior, was close in the last effort going two turns at the OC$25k level. Distance relief should help as he broke his maiden going today’s distance.
Race 2: MdClm $10k 1M
1st: #1 Yes Means No, this is a bad favorite that typically I’d try to beat, but the last effort was pretty solid going two turns here, should benefit from the distance relief of only a single turn. Would like to see him a bit more forwardly placed.
2nd: #3 Fast Will, has improved bigly in last two, most recently with the addition of blinkers he ran an even 4th behind Imthetapitnow who is entered in race 1 for $25k. Second time with the blinkers and trending upward, decent choice to try to beat the bad favorite with if you’re so inclined.
3rd: #2 Orient Point, 2-1ML second choice, second time out this year should improve but was favored in his last and missed by 11 lengths earning only a 24 Beyer. Will need to be much better.
Race 3: Clm $16k 5 & ½F
1st: #2 Nonsuch, really like this play, goes back to barn of his last trainer who conditioned him to the best start of his career which occurred at this distance in his only try on Laurel’s dirt track, a second place finish. He earned a 74 Beyer that day, and the trainer is attempting to recreate that effort. He faced only 4 rivals in that contest but it was clearly live as the winner and the third place finishers both came back to win out of that one.
2nd: #4 Tambora, Dick Sillaman conditions this one who returns to his preferred condition and class level. Last time he won over this trip earning a 57 Beyer, a little light, but beat 7 rivals.
3rd: #1 Gringo Star, like the two back effort a lot where he rallied going longer at this class level earning a 67 Beyer. Contender.
Race 4: Alw $42k F&M 1 & 1/16thM
1st: #1 Aikenetta, not going to be fooled by this one again, Rudy R ships down from Aqueduct with this one for a second attempt. He was close in the first try locally over the mud and retains services of top local pilot Trevor McCarthy. Gets great rail draw going two turns here.
2nd: #5 Belle ‘n Tonic, has the pattern I absolutely love, would usually pick him as the improving 4 year old who just registered his best performance yet going this distance over this strip. It was in the Maryland-bred restricted allowance company which is pretty weak, but a 70 Beyer is strong after some low 60s. Good exacta opportunity.
3rd: #4 Setubal, a sentimental favorite, always does well at this distance, don’t think the Beyers are quite high enough to win.
Race 5: Clm $5k F&M 1M
1st: #4 Dear Charlotte, bottom level claiming is the dregs, I’m going with this one who comes out for her second attempt in 2019 after closing strongly and narrowly missing last out going only 6F. She made up 7 length in the stretch that day when speed was heavily biased. Going to predict a bit of improvement.
2nd: #10 Top Ten, massive improvement over previous race going from 15 to 39 Beyer and she narrowly missed after setting the fractions and getting beat going two turns. Distance relief should help a lot, couldn’t blame you if you played her on top. Some prices in here, an exacta boxing opportunity.
3rd: #9 Tropical Runnings, consistent upper 30s low 40s Beyers. Her only try locally was a second place finish behind Malabar who was absolutely on fire then.
Race 6: MdSpWt $40k 3 Year Olds 6F
1st: #5 Fast Master, $275k purchase as a 2 year old, second time out for Graham Motion, earned a 64 Beyer in the debut effort where he made up 4 lengths in the stretch finishing second. Third place finisher VIP Ticket came back to win a MdSpWt event earning a 70 Beyer. Retains McCarthy here who could’ve ridden the 7 Sky Leap if he wanted to. Expect improvement.
2nd: #6 Great Herman, couldn’t blame you if you took this one on top, his second time out this year after a really nice performance finishing second in the mud by less than a length earning a 71 Beyer. It was shorter than today’s distance and he tired after setting early fractions, question the stamina.
3rd: #1 Creative Budgeting, must play in all horizontals, Pletcher sends this one down from Belmont and gets Vargas to ride in his debut effort. Pletcher hitting at 23% with debuters. Most recent gate dril is nice.
Race 7: OC$25k F&M 1M
1st: #2 Magically Discreet, another favorite here, this one has been running very solidly in allowance company, looks like she may want to run a little longer as her last win came at two turns. Class relief should make the difference here though.
2nd: #5 Rag Top, 2 for 5 locally including a win two back going two turns. I question if she doesn’t want more distance but she did break her maiden at one mile.
3rd: #4 Turing Machine, just won at the $16k level for Claudio Gonzalez but was claimed out of it by Wayne Potts. Has two wins over the strip.
Race 8: OC$25k 1M
1st: #7 Throw the Fade, this looks like an improving 4 year old who got beat by the 1 horse Global Citizen in the mud but came back on a fast track going 7F and ran away and hid earning an 82 Beyer. Only horse in the field that looks like he definitely wants the lead, if they give it to him easy it could be over early. Given a fast strip this is the play.
2nd: #1 Global Citizen, undoubtedly he will come running, think the added distance will help him in a closing effort after the recent 5.5F try. Still he was nosed out of that win and the winner came back to win. Goes back to McCarthy, who rode during his last win.
3rd: #4 Nick Papagiorgio, don’t know why Keefe doesn’t find a 3 year old restricted race for this one who was foaled in March so he could still be only 2 years old. Anyway, last effort was really strong against older horses then too. He went from a 52 Beyer to a 73 in the last. Think it’s too much to ask a young horse.
Race 9: Clm $12.5K F&M 1M
1st: #4 Sally O’Prado, last effort so sharp earning a 62 Beyer and won by 2+ lengths. Two back effort was against allowance company in the mud, but three and four back look a lot more like most recent. McMahon seems to have her figured out.
2nd: #3 Puppet, stepping down in class shipping in from Pen wher she was mostly facing allowance level competition and faring decently. Not certain what happened in last out, 4wide certainly made things more difficult. Return to previous form could mean a win.
3rd: #7 Faze the Nation, originally had this one on top off the strength of the Laurel record (7 for 20) and getting Trevor McCarthy to ride. Has back class, could be a player.