Race 1: Clm $5k 1 & 1/16thM
1st: #1 Lectric Choke, looks like such a no-brainer favorite to me. Horse has the best Beyers in the field and has been competitive at much higher levels. First back effort was on turf, did almost no running at 64-1, just some exercise. Has shown ability to make up lengths late, there’s a couple horses who will likely set a pace against each other, sets up perfectly for this one going two turns.
2nd: #4 Top Hat Scrutiny, does have the highest individual Beyer in the field in the two back, looks to be a bit of a fluke compared to his other numbers and was against maidens that just gave him an easy lead the whole way around. Won’t be like that today.
3rd: #5 Once in a Lifetime, first time stretching out to two turns for a highly competent trainer. Faired decently against tougher over the winter.
Race 2: Alw$42k 6F Turf
1st: #8 Clear Vision, this is a lovely come-back spot for this one by Jeremiah O’Dwyer. Colt has been keeping by far the best company in this field: last year after winning his debut sprinting over this turf he finished a strong 4th at the Kentucky Downs meet when sent away at 24-1, beaten just a length; followed that up by another 1 length defeat in open stakes company at Parx behind English Bee, who has gone on to win a graded stake and was 2nd in the G2 Wise Dan in June. Since has been competitive against big fields at Aqueduct and Fair Grounds, especially the most recent when the top two finishers came back to win against allowance horses. Turn back in distance should help, 6F gives him more distance to get into a decent position on the turn. A lot of speed in this race.
2nd: #9 Fair Catch, blitzed claimers off their feet last out when moving onto the turf for the first time at 8-1. He’ll have to contend with some other early speed in this event, but he’s well-bred and should improve off that first effort. Notice the two most recent drills.
3rd: #1 Fionnbharr, can make up lengths late, she’s won at this distance locally.
Race 3: Clm $8k F&M 6F
1st: #6 Hashtag Selfie, looks to be the highest quality speed horse in the field. Has won in StrAlw and even open Alw company last year. Earlier this year led almost the whole way around against OC$16k company until the end going 2 furlongs longer. Jockey and trainer inspire confidence. Ignoring the last out at Parx with a jockey I’ve never heard of who didn’t get her to the front.
2nd: #3 Swirrlie Shirlie, fresh off a local win at this distance and a couple 2nd place finishes before that one, highly competitive.
3rd: #5 Rein Supreme, competitive against tougher all last year and so far this year.
Race 4: MdClm $40k 1M Turf
1st: #3 Percentage, I am a bit stuck on this colt I must admit. He looks like the type who should appreciate more distance and two turns. The 48 second breeze at Fair Hill is a very nice one, fastest of 34 that day and Pimentel getting aboard today tells me they think he’s live. Dropping in class a bit down to MdClm level even though as a MD-bred he’s eligible to waive the tag. It’s essentially a Md-bred MdSpWt. Will need to improve.
2nd: #1 Call Me Plucky, gets the 2-1 ML favoritism off the solid effort going two turns in his turf debut last out. Was likely meant for turf all-along, but didn’t improve much speed-figure wise from the sloppy dirt debut to the second effort. Was 20 lengths back in the last and the rail draw certainly isn’t going to help his positioning in this one. Reasons to play against.
3rd: #8 Barrister, first back since March, showed speed over the winter earning a field-best 73 Beyer. Can’t imagine he’s ready to win this one.
Race 5: Clm $16k F&M 6F Turf
1st: #9 Pins and Needles, was probably likely to improve in the most recent before that event was taken off the turf. Was keeping the best company in this field between New York in Florida over the winter and got three really nice figures against much tougher company. Adds blinkers today and should benefit from the two July tries. Quick turnaround a good sign I think.
2nd: #2 Yougottabekitten, showed speed in both turf efforts and should do so again here. Turns back in distance for a trainer who does so effectively, 25%. Not much other speed in this field.
3rd: #1 Judi Blue Eyes, consistent mid-50s Beyers on both dirt and turf, rail draw could hurt her.
Race 6: MdClm $10k 6F
1st: #8 Lucerito, solid debut sprinting June 20th and got a third behind two next out winners. Took only 6 days off and attempted two turns behind a decent horse in Top Hat Scrutiny. Trainer gave him some time since, Beyers standout amongst this group.
2nd: #5 Air Token, was right behind Lucerito in the two back and then finished second to Bayano last out. Not showing much improvement.
3rd: #4 Day of Honor, a solid debut back in January at the MdSpWt level, been off since February and has moved barns. Impressive breeding.
Race 7: Clm $16k 5 & ½F Turf
1st: #8 Red Mule, hasn’t seen the track since February when he was with a now-indicted trainer who shall not be mentioned; Rob Atras had this one previously and had him dangerously close to breaking his maiden amongst open Md$40s in New York, a much higher level than this one. Would love to see Rosado be aggressive and head right to the lead with this one, he should have the quality to come home on top.
2nd: #6 Goodluckchuck, improved considerably in his first outing on the lawn breaking his maiden at the $16k level. Love the stalking trip in a deep field and the comment “driving”. I think he’s found what he does best.
3rd: #11 Gone Home, speed competition for Red Mule coming from this far outside post, this one only has one gear. Won’t be good enough today, but rarely finishes too far behind lately.
Race 8: OC$35k 1 & 1/16thM Turf
1st: #4 Bobby G, a little hard to predict when this one wins, he won on the turf first out and then went back to his seemingly preferred distance and lost twice when I thought he’d win. Consistently the highest speed figures in this field and the two turns should suit him perfectly. I’d like to see him on or just behind the pace as there isn’t much of it in the race.
2nd: #2 Hard Fought, was three lengths behind Papal Law in that last race in which PL just blitzed them off their feet in the final quarter mile. I don’t exactly see him improving off that effort, but that effort was nearly good enough to win this one anyhow.
3rd: #9 Pretty Good Year, a little confused by Kelly’s placement of this one on the turf. He won a restricted allowance race and then got his career best Beyer in an open allowance event last year on dirt earning a field-best 92. Back to grass where he had a modicum of success, but is 0-5 on this Laurel lawn.
Race 9: Alw $42k F&M 1M
1st: #3 Bachelor’s Bait, lightly raced daughter of Hard Spun broke her maiden over this track last September. Two defeats by double digit lengths in 2020 so far serve as learning experiences against much tougher competition, first at Gulfstream at 12-1 and most recently against open OC$80k company at Belmont at 37-1. Much softer spot here, she’s the bet.
2nd: #5 Indy Takes Charge, depends what you make of the last effort in the slop against a stakes quality filly in Hello Beautiful. She ran evenly I’d say and the margin of defeat was exaggerated by the wet track, so can she run near Hello Beautiful on dry? If so, she’s the likely winner. Not sure.
3rd: #7 Mandette, didn’t run much in a turf try but the exercise should be beneficial and Kelly’s horses are always ready to run.