Looks like rain is in the forecast, so with a wet Thursday I’m capping for off-turf and a wet track. If the surface changes, then, well . . .
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Race 1 – Should be 1M on the Dirt, OC25k/SAL16k
Confessor – Entered with an eye for this being off the turf, Confessor is my top choice. 3rd off the layoff is always a popular angle, and I will wager that the Sept 7th victory took a lot out of him when he raced again on Sep 28th. Comes back without a break to race again and his on the lead style will serve will in the rain.
Hard Fought – Like Confessor, had a good Beyer in a wet track scenario (along with some clunkers). Gets a jockey upgrade with Centeno on board and I don’t mind the bullet on Oct 25th. Another front runner who will try to take this wire to wire.
Dixie Drawl – reluctant 3rd choice. Looking back at his last race, Cruz ran a perfect race. He got the inside, shortest trip and really had no issues and a clear path to victory. Except he never took it. Race just last week, and the trainer is 2 for 3 with this move, which is the angle that gets my attention. Horse seems fit but didn’t really fight to hard to close the gap in last.
Race 2 – Clm 10000(10-8)N2L, 6F
2 – In Class. Ran well back in August under similar wet conditions, goes for the claim and drop in this race. Cuts back in distance after fading badly last race. Has some bullets and a decent workout tab since last start. I think she’s fit enough to win this one.
7 – Thea’s Theme & 1 – Union Song. Not much for me that separates these two horses, so I’ll lump them together and would put the horse with the better odds on top. Thea’s Theme gets McCarthy on board and he rode Union Song last time. Connections had high hopes for TT at one time, entering her in stakes races and allowance races, but she has disappointed since winning her first ever race. Looks like they are trying to find her level. Union Song disappointed backers last time by placing as the odds on favorite.
Race 3 – OC 62k/N1X, 1M, 2yo
3 – Lugamo. Lost first race to Jaxon Traveler (who won his next out impressively) but won impressively next time out. This OC is about his right level and I can see this steadily improving horse win it while stretching out.
7 – No One to Blame. Versatile horse, broke his maiden on an off track and did well on his first turf try. I like the rally in his last race from off the pace – maybe this NOTB has some heart. Should get a condition similar to one where he broke his maiden (for a mile) and has options to run with Lugamo or sit just off the pace.
5 – Nice Ace. Shipper from Presque Isle Downs has race competitively in last 3 starts, with one win and two close seconds. Has raced well on the lead, but goes from 6.5 to a mile and from synthetic to dirt, and with all those changes, I will look to Lugamo and better odds.
Race 4 – OC25k/SAL25k 6F, Dirt.
3 – Lookin for Candy. Came in 4th by a neck to the winner in a blanket finish last time out. Has been right up there in her last 3 races and I like her a lot if she goes off near her ML odds.
5 – Brut Rose. 2 month vacation may just be what the doctor ordered here as she ran well this summer but just couldn’t get the job done. Good workout tab with a bullet on Oct 18, I think the 5F workouts point to a smart return for this 6F try.
6 – Positive Force. Always the bridesmaid, this horse has placed in 5 of last 6 events (won the other race at the Maiden 16K level). Retains McCarthy which is a very good sign, and still learning how to win. Definitely include in your horizontals but wouldn’t blame you if you tried to beat this favorite
Race 5 – Md Sp Wt 40k 1M
7 – Market Cap. Who knows who will be racing in this 2yo race, as I suspect many will drop out since this won’t be run on turf. Market Cap, though, wants the dirt and did well in his last on a wet surface at Pimlico. Contested the lead last time, but if he can get an easy lead, may finally earn his first win.
10 – Camp Pendleton. Was favored in first race at Pimlico, but disappointed. That raace was a key race and he heads to the MSW ranks after being claimed. Positive sign that these connections want to protect their investment. Decent workouts for a trainer that is 24% with 1st time off the claim.
5 – Eric’s Emprire. Mild bid after a poor beginning that saw him 12 lengths off the pace. An improved start in his second time out could put him right there.
Race 6 –
6. Absentee. Lost by a nose at this level in Delaware in his last race. But he’s also raced here before and done well. Gets Toledo as jockey and in wide open races like this one, I like to go for higher odds. This one fits the bill.
4. Fortunate Friends. Lost as the favorite in last race, but ran a big race in the slop on Sept 10th. Was that a fluke or an outlier or can he repeat this performance again. Retains McCarthy and has won 3 of 7 on this track.
5 Hold Me Back. This one’s going up in class, but has been competitive in last 4 races, with 2 wins. Nice works for a high percentage trainer.
Race 7 – Clm 16000(16-14)B, 5.5F
Another off-turf race.
15 – Halfinthewrapper. A potential single for me. Has run really well on wet tracks and will take the lead against these others. Seems very fit and is looking forward to just this type of condition.
9 – Proud Mandate. Ran decent in the off track on August 13th and on a good track on October 11. Has a closing style, which isn’t my favorite type of style on a wet track. But if others get caught in a speed duel, look for Russell to pick them off and win.
14 – La Shrimp. Returned to win off-track on August 6th at this level . . . but at a mile. Has speed to take the lead, but with other speed in the race, I don’t see her grabbing the lead but she’ll try. IF she can get the easy lead, she’ll be dangerous. Big if.
Race 8 – Alw 42000N1X, 7F dirt.
5 – Moose Lodge. In these allowance races, I look for lightly raced horses that can improve. This one fits the bill. Won maiden in his first start on a good track, and ships in from Monmouth and lands McCarthy as the jockey. Not a lot of superstars in this race and with any improvement, can win this.
2 – Abuelo Paps. Been knocking at this level since July, and it looks like the connections are trying to find the winning formula with him. This time it looks like they will try and get him more forwardly placed, with blinkers added and bullets. Has been in the money past three races and maybe with this little tweak, we will see him in the winners circle.
8 – Absolved – Has placed in last three races, this 4yo has been trying and trying at the level for a while. 10 second place finishes in 22 starts shows a lot of bridesmaid never the bride determination on this horse. Use underneath but I’d think twice about using him on top.
Race 9 – 40000(40-35), 6F, 2yo
4 – It’s Sizzling Time. Just missed in first race and returns for a slightly higher claiming price today. Front running speed will serve him well and it won’t take much for him oto win.
3 – Doubleoseven. Not a great start in his first race, but liked the way he fought back for a decent finish. Loses Russell, but I think that his experience will serve him well in his second race.
8 – Big Cypress – Started well and then hit the wall, as may first time starters do. Ran against MSW and now drops into the claiming ranks. Gets McCarthy on board and does exit a key race. Worth a consideration in this wide open race.