Race 1: 2-8-1A
Bottom-level N2L with a number of horses who have been at this level for quite some time and can’t break through, so I’ll take Disco Express (2), who broke his maiden going long on the turf last year, then had a long time off. He’s been steadily improving his Beyer and still has a little room to improve since he hasn’t reached that maiden number yet. He’s hit the board in both tries at this level, including a 2nd last out to a 7/5 favorite. True Cat (8) appears to fit at the level as he hits the bottom for the first time. He broke his maiden at the open $40k level and 2 back was well behind Mesotherm, a good one for Gaudet. Tapitontheside (1A) is 1/22 but does take a slight drop and has a 2nd at this level in May, and that winner has come back to win twice at the beaten claiming level. Love N Kimestry (6) runs for the first time at the level, coming in off his maiden breaker. Over the last 5 years, Bailes has moved 5 maiden winners to the N2L level where he has a win and 2 seconds; overall he’s 2/13 with maiden last out winners with 7 in the money finishes.
Race 2: 7-5-8 (Dirt: same)
Michael Dickinson has only dropped 3 horses from MSW to MCL over the last 5 years, and none of those won, so the drop for Dumtadumtadum (7) to this level is very suspicious. However, the field isn’t great and she owns a Beyer edge when on her best. She was up close to a fast pace in latest off the bench and understandably faded late, but it was not a bad effort. Note the company she kept as a 2 year old. Her main rival is Lill Mave (5) who drops to her lowest level and return to her preferred surface and distance (5 times in the money at the distance in 6 starts). The only 2-turn grass race Artiful Move (8) had over the Laurel turf resulted in a career-best Beyer at 33/1 and puts her in the mix here. The top 3 are the only ones with decent dirt form, so picks remain the same if it comes off.
Race 3: 7-1-5 (Dirt: 2-5-3)
Dubini (7) ran huge off the layoff in latest where he engaged a 70/1 longshot for the lead through swift fractions and held on for 2nd; the other 3 who rounded out the super were all at the rear of the field through the first quarter. He has 4 wins at the distance and is a versatile sort who figures to sit off the inside speed. Are Tombelaine’s (1) latest disappointing efforts a result of the extremely soft going? On anything less than good, he’s been pretty bad. Firm turf makes him an obvious contender, but downgrade on off-going. Local contender Sonny Inspired (5) is coming off a win on the dirt, but his turf record is solid and there’s no reason he can’t hit the board here if a swift pace develops.
Race 4: 2-6-3
Someone has to win this one, and maybe Capable Lady (2) sneaks away at a price again. She was slow to go in here maiden voyage but showed some life at the turn. She was 4 in front of her rival to her inside Tiz a Deal, who also didn’t get away clean but didn’t show much, especially at 3/1. Shuman claimed Animalistic (6) in her maiden run, a good dirt try at Keeneland, to try her on the turf, but that experiment failed. She’s been back on the dirt in her last 3, and the cut back may allow her to finish. Sweet Walela (3) finished ahead of the top pick in the last, where she dropped to her lowest level in her career, opened up a clear lead and stopped late. The winner of that one was odds-on, and she still gets the weight break so I assume her intent will be the same here.
Race 5: 8-11-9 (Dirt: 7-4-8)
Salt Pond (8) comes in off a big effort in last at 28/1 over a yielding course where she was on the pace throughout and held gamely for 2nd. Note that the other 3 in the superfecta were the bottom 3 through the first quarter. The winner from that one came back and won a $50k claimer going long on the turf at Saratoga. Atalanta Belle (11) intrigues as a first-time starter. Her dam was a 7 time winner on the green, and sire Data Link was a grade 1 winner on turf. She’s been working pretty steadily at Delaware and Fair Hill, including matching 5f works recently. Proctor, however, is 0 for his last 16 with debut turf sprinters at the MSW level. Sunniva (9) gets back to turf sprints where she was a good 2nd on debut; assuming she runs back to that number, she’s a contender.
Race 6: 1-11-14
My Muchacha (1) drops back down from MSW to the level of her debut, where she was 2nd and 4 clear of 3rd. Corrales is 19% over the last 5 years with this move with a slightly positive ROI. Tough to separate Coqueta (11) and Summer Smile (14), both of whom have proved capable at this level and who have faced each other a few times.
Race 7: 9-3-10 (Dirt: 8-2-5)
This is a pretty salty 2nd-level allowance/optional claimer with a number of strong connections, competitive enough to search for a price. I’ll lean towards Harv Won’t Tap (9) who’s been right there at this level a number of times, and is coming off a strong closing 2nd at Kentucky Downs last out where he was sub-:30 in the final split. The winner was 4/1 in a G2 at Belmont next out (granted he ran last of 6) and the 3rd place finisher won a conditional allowance at Indiana next out. He didn’t embarrass himself in the race 2 back which was filled with stakes types. He’s also 4/5 in the money at this distance so the extra ground should help. I loved Dream Doctor’s (3) middle move into a fast 3rd quarter in his latest when he was 2nd to Just Howard and out-finished today’s rival Surprise Twist (10) who got first run on him. He was fanned wide on the turn but didn’t flatten out. He also likes the distance (6/9 in the money) but tough to endorse on top when the trainer does not excel at these types of layoffs.
Race 8: 2-4-7
Rumor Ridge (2) is an improving 3 year old who was making a move on the turn and was floated about 6 wide which stalled the rally. I thought she finished better than her result would indicate. Allen is 50% in the money over the past year 2nd off the layoff and this one figures to be a price again. The June allowance race featured stakes-placed fillies. Tiger Eyes (4) cuts back to a distance she likes (7-4-2-1) 3rd off the long layoff, and finished 2nd at this level last fall when she was going really well. Gotham Gala (7) freaked at Monmouth, then took a step back in her last out when she broke awkwardly and rushed up very wide and stopped. She shows a nice work, and you can’t underestimate Delacour/Centeno, but she’ll be a short price I’m sure.
Race 9: 6-1-5
Glenn’s Caper (6) cuts back from the 1-turn mile where he opened up a lead and faded late; that trip is always difficult to go wire-to-wire. He was so close multiple times at Presque Isle, albeit at a slightly lower level and on the synthetic, but his recent form is good enough to take this one. Slim (1) is 0/19 but 12 times in the money. He drops back to this level and is 2nd off the layoff, and Geralis is 6/10 in the money (1 win) in that situation with maiden claimers. Dove Dynasty (5) was 2nd at this level and distance 2 back.
Race 10: 6-5-9 (Dirt: 8-7-10)
Silver Dagger’s (6) been a great claim for Ness, who took him for $8k in June and he’s subsequently won twice and finished 3rd twice. He’s got some speed to his inside and can set a stalking trip returning to the grass here. I usually don’t like horses coming out of hurdle races, but He’s One Wild Dude (5) could be a nice value play. The runner up in his last came back to win the Laurel Dash, and he was less than a length behind probable favorite Brickyard Kitten in June. He has 3 wins at the distance and has hit the board in 9/10 at Laurel. Brickyard Kitten (9) gets the bad post here, and won’t offer value, especially since he’s not head and shoulders above his rivals here.