Race 1: 9-7-5 (Dirt: 3-4-5)
Rule Yourself (9) potentially offers good value. He broke his maiden early this year sprinting on the Gulfstream turf and kept that form stretching out here in Maryland at the optional claiming level. He just missed at this level at Pimlico in May off a short freshening, and has enough muddied form with the recent off the turf events that he might hold his morning line. He can also sit a nice trip with the speed to his inside. I’ve Gotta Plan (7) comes out of one the few turf races at the meet, and one that producing a crazy result. He attended the pace where they flew over the yielding ground, and the pace utterly collapsed. Wes sticks, so he gets the weight allowance, and figures to be right on the pace again with the drop in class. Meldon (5) is a huge longshot who has gotten better as the races get longer and gets a huge weight break here. He has to improve significantly from his last, which was a maiden breaker going multiple turns at Charles Town in the slop, and was 9 clear of 3rd after making a middle move in the off-going 2 back. He’s strictly for bottom of the exotics on either turf or dirt.
Race 2: 6-11-8 (Dirt: 6-5-7)
Pepper Pot (6) made an impressive middle move in her debut over the synthetic at Presque Isle getting to the neck of her first-run rival but was caught well wide and flattened out in the stretch. Dam was allowance winner and stakes-placed on turf, and sibling True Egyptian has multiple allowance level wins on turf including a $96 shocker. Devilinthedetails (11) was the even money favorite in that same race, but lagged behind the slow pace early. He ran similar incremental splits to the top pick, and has 2-turn turf experience to fall back on. Rain on the Dune (8) stretches out slightly to the mile, and has also put up competitive Buyers going 2 turns on the turf.
Race 3: 4-7-1
Claiming master Claudio Gonzalez moves Sacred Walk (4) into the N2L condition off the claim from his maiden win at the $10k level at Churchill. Any of his 2-turn dirt tries would be good enough to win here. Huyana (7) takes a big drop in class here from optional claimers, but does have a 2nd at a similar level in June in Delaware. Trainer is only 3/19 over the past 6 months on dirt at Laurel, but sports a solid $2.61 ROI. Painter’s Pride (1) is also coming in off his maiden win going the 1-turn mile here at Laurel in his last. McBurney is 26% over the past year with last-out winners, but is only 1 for 25 over the last 3 years with last-out maiden winners.
Race 4: 7-2-4
I’m Pretty Strong (7) ran huge last out in a restricted stakes at Delaware, where she was wide throughout and made a move to take the lead at the top of the stretch only to get caught late; she was 8 clear of 3rd. The post is a concern, but she’s really been going well since stretching to 2 turns. Nyx Warrior (2) is the only older mare in here, and is as consistent as they come, hitting the board in 9 of her last 10. Winner in last is very talented, and runner-up 2 back won a stakes race at Presque Isle next out. Without much speed signed on, Stormologist (4) can get aggressive and steal this one.
Race 5: 3-11-8 (Dirt: 4-1-5)
There are 3 big class droppers here, and your opinion of this race probably hinges on how negative you think any of those drops are. Lil Commissioner (3) drops from $40kN2L in NY where he pressed a fast pace and tired. Glad Moon (11) drops in from a first-level allowance where he finished far back. And Conscripted (14) also drops from the $40kN2L level in NY, and was actually entered in a stakes race in his 2nd career start for Shireffs out west. I will lean towards Lil Commissioner who I think gets the pace scenario in his favor and gets the best trip. If none of those 3 show up, it’s wide open. Lightly-raced Inchesky (8) comes off a brief freshening after finishing 3rd in a beaten claimer at Monmouth (open claimer for 3 year olds, N2L for older), which was won by one of the 3 year olds. However, Matz is only 2 for 49 at Laurel in the last year, and 0 for his last 32 (14 finished in the money).
Race 6: 7-6-4
The 7 furlongs and Old Time Revival were just way too sharp for Top of Mind (7) off the bench and he trailed throughout in his last, but the race 2 back in July over this track and distance puts him in the mix. Note that runner up in that race, Bonus Points, winner of the 2017 Maryland Million Classic, improved his Beyers since that July effort, finishing just off the track record at 1 mile in his latest. Race flow works to his advantage. Marengo Road (6) probably gets some class relief after prompting a quick pace at Belmont and giving way. Third place finisher in that one is entered in the Maryland Million Classic on Saturday. Tour de Force (4) outfinished the top pick in the Challedon last out, shows a sprint-sprint-route progression and will probably get first run on expected speed Saratoga Jack (3); lots to like except the potential price.
Race 7: 1-5-4
Avilles (1) wasn’t actually bad in her 1st two starts against older, both times finishing 3rd, but last is a mystery. If Wes goes with the strategy from those July and August tries, she could try to sneak away from the inside. Stellar Trick (5) is a 4-time winner that won her last at this level even though she reached a low Beyer in her cycle. Her best races were earlier this year on the synthetic, and with that low last Beyer I’m assuming she’ll be a decent price. Mrs. Rembrandt (4) “gave way readily” in latest which was against open older claimers, but she did pass through her lifetime conditions pretty handily.
Race 8: 2-12-3 (Dirt: 6-1-7)
Second Encore (2) showed some ability on the green in his last, fighting for 3rd after a slow start. I would expect an improved effort getting put into the race a little earlier. This pick has more to do with the post draw for Quality Choice (12) who lays over this field on Beyers, but even if it stays on the grass and the MTO’s scratch, he’ll still be way wide on the first turn, and based on his 2 grass tries, he’ll be sent early. He obviously can win this just based on numbers, but his odds will be so low, and post so bad, that it’s worth a small shot to try to beat him. Pino gets back on Seattle Ric (3) who was close to wiring similar 2 back before fading late. He’ll have the post edge and could try to steal it again.
Race 9: 5-4-2
Six of the 9 entrants in this one come out of the same race, and I’m taking Holiday Magician (5) who made a middle move to gain contention and faded very late, but was 2 clear of 4th. The slight cutback should assist. Gingeresk (4) could easily make it back-to-back here, she’s won 3 of her last 4 as she’s moved through the lifetime conditions, all with today’s jock. Amazon Lizzie (2) has been on the synthetic all 13 of her lifetime starts, and has been in the trifecta in all but 3 of those efforts. Beyers are competitive with her rivals, and anything near the morning line presents some value if she can carry that form to the dirt.
Race 10: 7-3-10 (Dirt: 9-4-11)
Chateau de Vizille’s (7) turf form is terrific ignoring the sloppy track efforts, all against purely open company. He should sit a good trip and offer some value in what appears to be a very competitive race. Both turf efforts for Can Do Anything (3) are very good, and even his most recent on dirt in his first try against winners was solid, where he set a pressured pace and retreated late. The runner up 2 back has turned into a pretty tough competitor, breaking his maiden next out and subsequently winning a first-level allowance race in NY. Taxable Goods (10) surprised at 18/1 at this level 2 back, resulting in a career best Beyer in his Laurel debut. The winner from his last is a stakes winner and was on the Derby trail for a short time.