Rain is forecasted for Friday, so check for scratches. I’ve tried to take into account that turf races may be off and on a wet surface. Good luck to you!
Horses are in order of preference.
Race 1
7 – Look Me Over. Belmont invader ran decent in her return after the layoff and faces less competition in this race. Good to see a workout after the Sep 20th race and gets Carrasco here. Look for her to be right there at the finish line.
6 – Pilot Episode. Blocked last race in a good effort as the favorite. Adds blinkers and coupled with a bullet workout, look for her to take this wire to wire. She has also raced on three different surfaces (Dirt, Turf, Tapeta) so she should be competitive if this race is taken off the turf. In fact, if this is on the dirt, I would consider singling this horse in horizontals.
10 – Lexophilia. First race was a good key race and she ran decent in the follow up race before tiring at the finish. Gets McCarthy back on board and a slight improvement puts her right up there in this evenly matched race.
Others to consider (in case of scratches): 3,1
Race 2
5 – Scottsdale. *shrug* this race is wide open (at least for me). In these instances, I like to try and identify value and have landed on this horse trained by Jeremiah O’Dwyer and ridden by Toledo. Scottsdale sold for $120k, so owners saw something in him and has a steady worktab with a bullet on a sloppy track (Sep 29).
1 – Speightster Red & 4 Lugamo. Horse ran neck and neck in their debut, losing to the impressive Jaxon Traveler at Pimlico a few weeks back. If either improve on their initial effort, they will be tough to beat.
Race 3
3 – Holly Blame. Gelded five-year old in a race full of three year olds, Holy Blame has an age and experience advantage over his rivals. Like to see first race off the claim be an allowance race and trainer also strikes at a high percentage off the claim.
7 – Decorated. Recent gelding may show some marked improvement this race if can avoid the trouble that’s bothered him the previous two races. Interesting bullet on October 8th shows that maybe this horse is ready with a trainer intent on winning this race.
4 – Russeldoingthings – Trainer Russell, wtih jockey Russell on Russeldoingthings . . . not to get too cute, but this recently gelded horse can improve and win here. Cuts back to 6F and won 1st time out, so this horse, that hasn’t raced since July 27, can run off the layoff.
Race 4
6 – Peachy Keen. If this race is off the turf, I would single Peachy Keen. If he repeats his last race, I think he’ll take this easily.
9 – Jestful. I feel like MD 25K is the appropriate level for Jestful after coming up short in higher stake races. Good sign that Ruiz is maintained. Could sit off an easier pace this race and score a win if things fall the right way.
1 – Good workout tab, but haven’t seen him in nearly a year. Has a steady tab of workouts and with any improvement, could be right there in his first race as a 3 yo. Should get good odds to make it worth your while.
Race 5
6 – Girl Next Door. Like that this horse is going up in class after being claimed after her last victory. Stretching out to a mile, but I think she can handle the distance based on her sole 7F race where she closed to finish second. I’m not very high on the likely co-favorites, so looking for a horse with value that can improve.
2 – Makin Out. This horse has been trying to find the right level after winning an allowance race last year. Gets a trainer upgrade in O’Dwyer and maybe he can coax a longer distance from this filly who has been tiring at the finish line as of late.
3 – Ortinola. Has been up and down on the Beyer cycle past four races, but this race would be part of the up cycle. Nearly won at this level last time in her last race at Laurel, and if maybe a return to a one-turn mile after the poor showing at Pimlico will have get her to the winner circle this time.
N.B. Going against Nevisian Sunset, Ragtime Suzy and Thedevilmademedoit. I can’t fault those that back these fillies but they don’t inspire confidence in me. So I’ll just take my chances with the longshots above.
Race 6
9 – Sailingintothewind. Won in her only attempt at a muddy track. If she finds herself in a similar position today, her speed will do well on the wet surface. She’s also been competitive in her other allowance races. I will look to single this horse in a few horizontal tickets.
8 – One Last Trial. Has run well on both dirt and turf, this filly should do well no matter the surface of this race. Last race was a clunker as a co-favorite, but if you can forgive that race, she looks very competitive here.
11 – Good On Paper. Nice MSW win as the favorite last time out, will be facing winners now and may need a race to adjust to the faster pace and the new surface (if off the turf).
1 – A Girl Named Jac. Horses may scratch, and this one has longshot potential. She can’t seem to find her way to a turf race, as her previous 3 of 4 races have been taken off the turf. Race two back in the slop was a key race.
Race 7
7 – Glory Song. Been racing steadily since June and has been competitive at this level in most of his races. Disappointed supporters in his last race in the slop, but it wasn’t that bad of a race. Front-running style will be ideal on a wet surface.
5 – Seven On The Rocks. Toss the last race and this horse has been very competitive at this level. Generally likes to close, but did race and win as a front runner last time he ran on a muddy track.
6 – Forfiftyfiverocket. This horse is peaking and just missed in his last race. Taking a step up in class but I could see him improving on the last effort and being right there at the wire. Front running style also a plus if run on a wet track.
Other horses to consider – 4. Noble Way (nearly a 2 year layoff) and 1. Tastes like Plaid.
Race 8
6 – Thunderinthevalley. Been knocking at the door past three races at this level (3-0-2-1) so maybe today is the day she puts it together. Disappointed as the heavy favorite in last race, her second place finish was 5 lengths better than the show horse.
4 – Why Not You. Another filly who has been close at this level, she disappointed in her last race at Pimlico. But maybe she didn’t like Pimlico and now returns to Laurel where she’s been competitive. Trainer is 1 for 43 in 2020, but it won’t take very much to win this race.
1 – Chambered Bullet. Well supported in her first race at this level, she encountered trouble and was never really in it. Returns with experience and retains Perez, both positive signs. If the odds are high, this filly will be worth a long look.