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Race 1: 1-8-2 (Md 40000, 2yo, 6F)

• Gran City (1): Interesting juvenile race where you can go in a number of different directions.  I love when a horse shows speed at the MSW level and drops in for a tag next out, which is what Gran City is doing here.  He fought in between horses and faded to 5th, which can only help the price today.  Same with the connections; trainer is 0/5 with 2nd time starters but is 2/9 making this drop (3 in the money) with a positive ROI.  Would guess that tactics are the same today with the inside post, appears to be the fastest of those with experience.  

• Quality Step (8): King keeps this one at the 40 level where he ran last time first-off the claim, a solid second; should sit a nice outside trip.  

• Awesome D J (2): Firster for Capuano who has solid numbers (50% with debut maiden-claimers) and this one sports a bullet work and 2 recent gate works; should be ready to fire.

Race 2: 7-1-5 (Md 25000, 2yo, 5.5F)

• El Rojo (7): El Padrino was a very successful sire with limited runners in his short stud career, and this one improved nicely in his second start; gets the outside stall where there seems to be some speed to his inside; Cal Lynch is strong with his 2 year olds

• Baravelli (1): Thought about putting this one on top; dropped into a maiden claimer last out where he pressed a fast pace from the inside and faded; gets the inside post and Tres puts the blinkers on, so you have to imagine that he’ll be sent again, but there appears to be some other speed to soften him up; winner from last came back and ran 3rd in a very strong 1st level juvenile allowance next out

• Cool Man Cletus (5): Sports 2 runner-up finishes at this level, and goes 2nd off the layoff; last resulted in a career best Beyer, and last time he was second off the bench he improved

Race 3: 2-1-6 ((F)Clm 5000B, 5.5F)

1. Tiz Emily and Jill (2): Can’t find much to go against the chalk here; she’s the horse in the best form (2 wins in last 3) who’s had success at the beaten level as well; a single opportunity in the early horizontals
2. Stormy Mama (1): Another one who’s hit the board at this level previously and drops in from open company; 7 year old doesn’t find the winner’s circle very often (5/59 lifetime, 2/45 at Laurel)
3. Silver Majorette (6): Three of her last 4 efforts on a fast track at this $5k beaten level resulted in on the board finishes, though current form is poor; drops from open to conditional claimers and presents some value underneath

Race 4: 4-6-7 ((F)OC25k/SAL25k, 2yo, 6F)

1. Heningham (4): Broke her maiden impressively and backed that win up with improved Beyers in her subsequent first-level allowance tries; think she fits in here very well
2. Knock Out Kid (6): Has been improving steadily including a 2nd against the in-form Sip of Sunshine (3 wins in a row) last out; note she was third to Cal Lynch’s freak filly Congrats Gal in September; if she’s anywhere near the morning line, she’s an underlay given that she’s not overwhelming and might not have much more room for improvement
3. Past Perfect (7): Love the confidence Cox showed in putting her in with allowance company after the claim (a claiming race where she bested the 2nd pick); gets her into a little softer without the risk of losing her

Race 5: 4-2-1 ((F)Clm 12500B, 1 1/16M)

1. Jilted Runaway (4): Throw a blanket over this field filled with 3 year old fillies, as almost all of them can win; hoping that the morning line holds with this one; thought her run 2 back against 2 other contenders in here was better than it looks on paper as she had the widest trip and ran the fastest 2nd quarter in the field while wide; fought on gamely in the stretch to gain 3rd; latest was proof that she’s in good form with an easy win over this track and distance last out; 3 year old has already run 23 times with 6 wins
2. D’wildcat Sunshine (2): Filly is in good form with 2 wins and a close 5th in her last 3; note that she’s been fortunate with her post draws in her most recent sprints, but gets a good draw again here, as the inside going 2 turns here is beneficial; figures to be closer to the pace than in her latest and takes a slight drop
3. Hazana (1): I think this one’s odds will drift a little up by post-time; took to the Laurel dirt nicely in last at the N2L condition, though got away with relatively soft fractions without any pressure; she has been competitive against better on the turf and has the best maiden win of the field that is visible in the PPs

Race 6: 2-5-8 (Clm 16000B, 1 Mile)

1. Zip Van Winkle (2): Another race where there are lots of contenders so we’ll try to get a decent price with this one who comes in from Kentucky after clearing the N2L condition; McMahon is on fire with his first-time claimers over the last 90 days (5/14 with 7 in the money and a $4.40 ROI); figures to be prominent from the get-go from an inside post and slight stretchout
2. Painter’s Pride (5): Slight cut below on the Beyer scale, but he’s an improving 3 year old coming off a 2-turn win to clear the N2L condition at Parx; broke his maiden at this 1-turn mile 3 back
3. My Eminence (8): Figures to sit a good stalking trip on the drop into this conditional claiming level; last time in for a tag he won pretty easily with a career-best Beyer

Race 7: 8-5-2 ((F)Clm 12500B, 6F)

1. Splendor Gal (8): Think she might sneak away at a decent price; opened up and stopped in latest at this level which was her first off a 2 month freshening; Sillaman having a great meet, and I think she can stalk the pace from the outside post
2. On the Hop (5): In all honesty she’s the most likely winner but you’ll probably have to swallow a short price even though this field is pretty well-matched; seven-time winner gets in under the open 3 year old condition and comes in off back-to-back wins at this beaten level, both against older
3. Sarah’s Treasure (2):Pace-dependent mare is only 2/29 and her best finishes are when she gets a very fast pace which I don’t think she’ll get in here; lean against on top as the probable second choice but can definitely see her getting a piece underneath

Race 8: 5-3-2 (OC 35k/N2X, 6F)

1. Home Run Maker (5): Hasn’t run a bad one this year and just got to his top Beyer in latest, a victory in a first level allowance; think he’s starting to live up to the expectations his connections had of him as a 2 year old where he debuted in a maiden special weight at Saratoga (winner of that one turned into one the best 3 year old sprinters in the country) and ran 3rd next out to Vino Rosso; figures to get a good trip outside the speed
2. Shane’s Jewel (3): Appears to the be the speed of the speed; comes out of the City of Laurel where he was dueled into defeat against a pretty nice field
3. Robey’s Boy (2): Don’t like the post here, but figures to benefit if a speed duel develops up front

Race 9: 3-2-5 ((R)(F)Alw 35000C, 6F)

1. Elevated Vision (3): Time off a little bit of a concern, but this one flashed promise in her first 2 career starts this year sprinting on the dirt, breaking her maiden impressively at first asking and coming right back and grinding out a win against winners; the turf sprint was not a bad effort considering the winner turned into a very good horse, hitting the board in stakes races in the mid-atlantic; note that the 3rd place finisher 2 back won easily next out; fast recent work on the tab
2. Three Hawk (2): Another lightly raced filly coming off a freshening, this one might get a nice set-up pace wise
3. Ghoul’s Night Out (5): Not sure I’m seeing the short odds with this one; she runs the same race every time, so I think we’ve seen what she can do, so I’d rather go with some horses that might have some more upside; she’s had plenty of chances without seeing the winner’s circle very often (2/16); winner of last came back to take the Geisha here last week

Race 10: 9-4-8 ((F)Md 16000, 2 yo, 7F)

1. Variance (9): Pretty difficult maiden claimer to end the card; this one gets back to the same level when she was a close 2nd; last 2 were at the 40 and 25 level, and winner in last shows up in a starter allowance today
2. Coqueta (4): Don’t mind the short cutback for her as she was a closing 3rd at this level last out; she’s shown some early interest sprinting, including back-to-back runner-up finishes in September which would most likely get it done here today
3. Broadway Trouper (8): Sees this level for the first time after running evenly in her 3 efforts so far