Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. I’ll be taking a hiatus for the holidays, so for the few who read my picks, thanks! Below are my picks for Black Friday at Laurel Park.
Race 1 – CLM 16K, 6F
5 – Bear Force Won. That was a solid race on November 7th after breaking his maiden. This 3 yo is progressing nicely and will be tough to beat if he brings his A game.
2 – Booyakasha. Garcia had choices here to ride either one of Tessore’s horses, but he chose Booyakasha and I will follow him. This is his first race off the maiden victory, so it is a step up in class for him. Will be Bear Force Won’s main challenge.
6 – Oracle of Omaha. My longshot for race one (15-1 ML). Showed promise as a 2 year old but hasn’t really fulfilled those promises. OofO seems a good fit for turf, but with the dearth of turf races in winter, he finds himself back on the Laurel dirt. The last race was his highest Beyer in over a year, so maybe he’s finding his form.
Race 2 – MSW 40K, 1 1/16 M
1 – Rippolino. I do like the 4 (see below) better, but I like Rippolino’s odds more, so he gets my nod. Last race was his first, and after a poor start made up some ground to come in third. Experience will help and I expect a better performance here. I also like the 6F workouts leading up to this race. He’s 9-2 ML and if he stays around there, I’ll be simply wagering him to win.
4 – Shackqueenking. That was an excellent debut, and in that November 1 race, Shack earned a Beyer score that’s higher than the Beyer par for this level of race. Stretches out to 1 1/16, but he ran an even race last out and think the added distance can only help him.
2 – Street Ruckus. The husband and wife duo known as the Russells have been hot lately, so Street Ruckus is one to consider. Well-backed in his first race, SR really didn’t show that much. Then again, it’s hard to debut at two-turns and win. Has experience now, adds blinkers to get some speed on the front end, so maybe now?
Flight Map,
Race 3 – CLM 5000B, 5.5F
4 – Don’tbaggagecheck. Owner of the highest last Beyer (and personal best), I wagering that there’s one more good race in this form cycle. Beyers have improved in last three races and the front running style is what I like to back in this sprints.
7 – Eighty Six Mets. October race was his first race in over a year and he just missed coming in fourth by 1.5 lengths. That was a key race, as the winner and place horse won their next race. I have some concern about a bounce after such a strong effort but at 6-1, I can be talked out of such concerns.
2 – Congress Hall. In his last race he beat Don’tbagcheck by .5 length, but has taken a short break after that. That last race was a big Beyer improvement, so perhaps the layoff is intentional to minimize a bounce. McMahon knows what he’s doing and Roslaes elects to stay on board.
Race 4 – MSW 40K, 1Mile
5. Joycee Haz Pizazz. Stretches out to a mile, JHP has placed in the last 3 of his races. I expect him to figure it out soon and this looks like a race to do it.
6. Super Dancer. Has the highest Beyers of the field . . . but they were earned in Delaware. Encountered trouble yet still managed to lose by a nose at the end. Gets the services of McCarthy, which means the connections are in it to win it.
2. Galilean Moon. Went 7 wide in his last effort and still closed the distance before losing. With a good trip, GM can run a race equal to the two above and win it at better odds.
Race 5 – CLM 8K, 7F
1 – Divine Interventio. I liked the way he closed in the last race going five wide and missing by just a length. Returns to the same level and perhaps now he’s ready by cutting back to a 7F distance.
3 – Cause He’s Western. I’ve backed this horse before in this column and he returns to this race at the top of his form. I don’t know if he’ll get the easy lead like last race, but if he does, he could be gone.
7 – Glengar. Glengar’s my potential horse. He’s won two straight and that last victory in the slop showed grit. With a fast track tomorrow, and returning to a 7F race, Glengar should be coming from behind to make it close or win it.
Race 6 – CLM 10000B, 5.5F
5 – Dragon Moon. I’m willing to forgive the Nov 6th race for it was after a small layoff and the fractions were red hot. In this sprint with speed, I’m looking for off-the-pace horses who can challenge in the end. At 10-1 odds, I’m willing to take a chance.
6 – Jungle Warrior. Like Dragon Moon, likes to sit off the pace. I see JW as equivalent to DM, so I put DM on top based on the 10-1 odds. Won by 8 lengths last time so JW is another horse that is in peak condition.
2 – Revolutionary Road. Ran into a very hot pace before fading, RR is used to racing in better company. RR does have Beyers that in the past would win this race, and this is his third race off the layoff. Workouts are good too, so he checks off three longshot angles for me and at 20-1, will probably put a win wager as well as use RR in some exotics.
Race 7 – ALW 35000C, 7F
2 – Odd Gal. The speed of speed, should get an easy lead and control the pace from Lookin for Candy. If I’m right. If so, she should be very tough to pass. Exits a key race in last effort. 2-1 ML seems to high
8 – Judi Blue Eyes. Ran against a slow pace last time to win it, but I don’t think she’ll get that again with Odd Gal here. Still, if OG fails to step up, she will be there to pick up the pieces.
4 – Kiss the Girl. First time since May she’ll be running in back to back races without a layoff. Last time she did that she earned a 72 Beyer and a victory at Oaklawn Park. Good to see Carrasco stay on board and look for improvement over her last start.
Race 8 -OC 25k/SAL 16k, 6F
5 – Belle Tapisserie. Toss the September 30th race and lo and behold, four solid races appear in his last five races. This gelded five year old has had a good 2020, all things considered, and is 5 for 10 at this distance.
3 – Day the Music Died. Won by 7 lengths last time out at even money, takes a big step up in class now. When he last raced at this level, he came in third. Horse may scratch, though, for he’s entered in a November 28th race so keep your eye on him.
4 – Cerulean Springs. On again, and off again horse the past four races. However, in this fifth race, he’s scheduled to be on again. Shortens up to 6F which may not be his best distance but Claudio Gonzalez knows how to place them and in him I trust.
Race 9 – MDN 10K, 1 Mile
8 – Scarlet’s Song. Last race off the layoff was a good one and return to form. I look for her to build on that race and with McCarthy aboard, all signs point to a competitive horse.
10 – Sorelina. Trainer Miguel Vera doesn’t race as many horses as the other trainers, but he is 23% for the year out of 40 races and is 3 for 5 here at Laurel. Sorelina drops in for a maiden tag after butting heads in the MSW ranks in the past. Will find much easier company here and with a clean trip, could be right there at the end.
14 – Sing Along Suzy. Has the dirt beyers to prove she belongs, and placed last time out (albeit by 10 lengths). Starting from the outside post will put her at a disadvantage but she does drop to her lowest level racing.