Race 1: Claiming $5,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs
1A- Roman Holiday: In a race where the fastest horses are chronic losers, I’ll try a lightly-raced filly. She makes her first start since September 21, tries dirt for the first time, and has shown early speed. Runs for the seventh time in her career, and has only lost one time at this level. Her entrymate does not figure to be a contender.
6- Sharon’s Thunder: She’s shown decent closing speed in the past, and gets a jockey upgrade to hot-riding apprentice Julio Correa. She’ll pick up a good piece of the purse, for sure, but if her closing rally wasn’t enough in her prior few, I don’t know if it’ll be enough here.
2- Perfect Exchange: Another lightly-raced filly, she’s a three-year-old trying her elders. Broke her maiden in sharp fashion back in OCtober, then was compromised at the start in three straight races. I’ll give her another chance to break cleanly.
Race 2: Claiming $25,000, 4yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
2- Lady Terp: Went off form rather dramatically earlier in the year, but rebounded with a win against $12,500 company, stalking the pace and holding sway in a tough field. I’ll count on her to keep the good streak going.
4- Le Weekend: Looks like the primary speed in the field. There’s one horse drawn to the inside who could challenge for the lead, but that one looks like a speed-and-fade type. On the other hand, Le Weekend has shown the ability to hang on in the late stages, and as such is the better bet.
5- Jemrose: Drops from the starter handicap level, and has the best late speed figures in the race. The mile distance should play into her wheelhouse.
Race 3: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo, Fillies, 6 Furlongs
8- Suyapa: Has shown speed and faded against better in her first three tries. She’s fast enough to clear from the outside against weaker foes and hold on.
3- Silver Sides: Ran two good figures in a row, then turned in a dud last out against similar. Returns to the Emanuel Geralis barn, and she had run her best races under his care. Watch for improvement.
5- River Sonata: Drops to this level for the first time, after a third-place try against $50,000 foes. Has the best last-out figure in the race by five points.
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
6- My Chesa Charm: If you back her, you’ll get a thrill, if nothing else. Her style is to go as fast as she can, as far as she can. Last out, she had a clear lead in the stretch, but was run down in the last few strides. She set a 22 1/5 opening quarter in the race; if she can slow it down a bit here, she might have enough for the stretch run.
4- Big Momma: Made some decent ground in the stretch in each of her last four, but hasn’t been able to close the deal. At least here, she’ll have a target to run at.
7- Greely’s Striker: Makes her third start off the layoff, and closed frantically in her last race. She’s another one who will be heard from late.
Race 5: Starter Allowance $8,000, 4yo and up, 1 Mile
3- Hayne’s Fever: I’ll take a chance with this morning line longshot. He held on well after setting the pace two races in a row, even winning one, despite the presence of Tais Lyapustina in the saddle. Last out, he tried to go 1 1/4 miles, and that didn’t work. Angel Cruz jumps aboard, and this horse looks like the clear speed. If he’s allowed a lonely lead, look out.
2- Try Flying: Parx invader ran figures in the upper 90s last year. He wasn’t that impressive in his first race off the layoff, but his figure of 84 in that race still has him as a contender.
5- Prime Time Man: Battled on the pace last time, and while he was no match for the winner, but was clear of the rest. I don’t know if it’s in his best interest to try and challenge Hayne’s Fever for the lead. Ideally, Vargas will keep him a half-length or so off the leader.
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 7 Furlongs
8- Rockstar Girl: She’s come close in her first two tries against maidens, losing a battle down the stretch in her last race. Has improved sharply in each of her last two races.
6- Song of Mine: Hasn’t raced on dirt since April 14, and hasn’t raced at all since December 8. Works have been solid, and showed enough ability last year to make me think she’s got a shot. Might want to see a race first.
1- One Two Three Go: Improved sharply in her second race off the layoff, rating off the leaders before running out of steam in the stretch. Looking for her to take another step forward.
Race 7: Claiming $5,000, 4yo and up. Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs
4- Intrepid Forest: Ran well over the Charles Town bullring two starts ago, but wasn’t a factor against Maryland-bred allowance horses last out. Takes a drop in class, Vargas stays aboard, which is an encouraging sign, and she’s got good speed. If you want an alternative to a vulnerable morning-line favorite, she’s the best choice.
2- Rockin Ruth: Coming off two wins in a row, showing dramatically improved form each time. Felix Pinero has ridden her in both of those wins, and he’ll keep the mount.
6- Tiz Emily and Jill: Her recent figures have been fantastic, but she’s been running for claiming tags as high as $12,500 recently, and now is in for $5,000 first off the layoff. That makes me a bit wary, especially at low odds. Tread with caution.
Race 8: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
7- Crystal Pier: Showed late life in her first race off a long layoff, and was great in her final start of 2018, just missing against $4,000 claimers at Timonium.
2- Majestic Pic: Won against similar horses back in November, and hasn’t been seen since. Should rate just off the early leaders.
1- Polarization: Has shown speed and faded in her last few, but Trevor McCarthy should be able to coax plenty out of her.
Race 9: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo, 6 Furlongs
8- Honor Run
4- Eliav
9- Lucky Leonard