Race 1: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo, 6 Furlongs
1- Blue Danube: It’s always dangerous to pick a Kali Francois horse on top, but this horse has the best speed figures by far, not to mention the most early speed in the field. It looks like he’ll be able to get a clear early lead and draw off.
5- Oy to the World: Faces a weaker field than last time and keeps Toledo on board. His figures aren’t nearly as good as Blue Danube’s, but he looks the second-best.
7- Top Hat Voyager: Couldn’t get it done despite a perfect trip last out, but it’s possible the 1 1/16 miles distance that day was too far. He had run better when he was sprinting, and he’ll get to do that here.
Race 2: Claiming $12,500, 4yo and up, 1 Mile
1- Forty Aces: Looks like the stronger half of the McMahon entry, although the other one looks strong as well. He consistently runs figures in the 80s, and showed a lot of fight last out when winning against similar by a nose.
4- Sacred Walk: His last two races against tougher were disappointing, but he drops in class and looks like the clear early speed.
2- Prime Time Man: Raced wide throughout in his last race and didn’t stand a chance. Cuts back around one turn, and gets Vargas back aboard, as previous rider McCarthy opts for Black Jacket.
Race 3: Claiming $12,500 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
1- Huascaran: He ran a dud in his last race, but if you take that race out, he’s been in good form and has early speed from the inside. Could sneak away to a lonesome advantage.
7- Broad Expanse: Closed decent ground in his first race off the layoff. Doesn’t have any speed to speak of, but could pick up some pieces late.
2- Huyana: In a similar boat as Broad Expanse. He faces the easiest competition and has the best late pace figures of anyone in the field, but looks entirely pace-dependent.
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo, 6 Furlongs
2- New Stones: A Claudio Gonzalez horse is dangerous under any circumstance, but he’s disappointed in his last two races at the level. Willing to give him one more shot.
5- Once More Eh: Opened up a clear lead, and fought hard down the stretch to lose by a neck. I’d feel better about him if he got a jockey change, but he still looks like a contender if he can improve off that race. At the least, he’ll give his backers a thrill.
7- Equus Novus: Ships to Maryland for the first time after showing speed and fading in his last few. I don’t know if he can go with Once More Eh, but if McCarthy can rate him right off the lead, he can take advantage should Once More Eh fade away.
Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 4yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
5- Miss Jak: Her figures are superior to those of the rest. Won a starter handicap as much the best last out, and shouldn’t have any trouble with this field, either.
2- Souper Echo: Went down to Florida for a race, and battled down the stretch, only to fade late. She’s come close in her last five against similar, but hasn’t quite gotten over the hump.
6- Phantom Shot: Deep closer was visually unimpressive last out, but in fact just missed running a career-best figure. Will be firing another big shot from the back.
Race 6: Claiming $32,000, 3yo, Fillies, 7 Furlongs
3- Knock Out Kid: This hard-knocking filly already has thirteen starts to her name, and takes a drop from allowance company. Ran by far a career-best race two races ago, but has been a very consistent type.
7- Nana’s Shoes: Closed from far behind to just get up against a similar field going 1 1/16 miles. McCarthy jumps off in favor of a rival, but Victor Carrasco is just about the next best thing.
2- She’s Primo: Parx invader absolutely demolished the field last out, winning by eleven lengths in a career-best race. Luis Rodriguez Castro comes from Pennsylvania for the mount.
Race 7: Claiming $12,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
2- Jackgreerstubhutch: Tries winners for the first time after a strong front-running effort against maiden claimers. The water is clearly deeper here, but he’s not a proven loser and comes in with improving form.
5- Phantom Spot: This closer broke his maiden in solid fashion three starts back, but hasn’t been quite the same in two starts against winners. Willing to give him one more shot.
3- Relentless Lion: In a similar boat as Phantom Spot. Wasn’t a factor at all over an off track last time, ran a more visually impressive race two starts ago.
Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo, 6 Furlongs
3- Wendell Fong: He wasn’t a factor behind possible Derby prospect Alwaysmining in the Miracle Wood, but still ran a great race first off a bit of a layoff. Faces much easier company here.
7- Confessor: Won at this level last out, defeating a few horses that he’ll face again. I don’t know if hes good enough to beat a horse like Wendell Fong, but he should have an edge over the rest.
9- Lordhavemercy: Broke his maiden at 41/1 last out with a frantic closing rally. His high odds on debut suggest that no one took him seriously before the race; it will be interesting to see if he’s legit,or if that was just a fluke.
Race 9: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo, Fillies, 6 Furlongs
3- Bunting
10- Umightbeanempress
2- Lucky Ninety Nine