Race 1
1st #11 Chewing Gum is a son of Candy Ride (love this sire, his offspring is always loaded with talent and consistency) and his dam Shared Heart was stakes placed. He is shipping in from Del Mar with two third place finishes.
2nd #7 A. K. Safari is one I took a chance with last out and he ran a good second place finish. This fella has made a little over $35K from eight races which is actually pretty good for not even winning yet.
3rd #1 Tell Your Daddy had been running well at Churchill but his last race at Ellis was a fourth place finish. Which would make it hard to pull off a win at Kentucky Downs. I’m hoping he will like this track and get a good trip.
Race 2
1st #1 Wild Union was a nice pin hooking prospect. He was purchased for $95K as a yearling, and then $225K as a two year old. He’s had two races, a second and a third at Indiana. He is trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Florent Geroux.
2nd #8 Win D’Oro has some solid breeding. His sire is Medaglia D’Oro out of a Tapit mare. His first start doesn’t look great on paper but he also didn’t break well, but only lost by four and a half.
3rd #4 Chapula ran just over a month ago at Laurel, and has shipped to Kentucky now. He finished second in his debut, it’s taking a bit of a gamble to put him here being that the company he faced wasn’t fantastic.
Race 3
1st #6 Peru has been around the block, and 2018 was hands down her best year when she held her own against some monster mares. This year, she’s got me worried. Five starts, and not one on the board, but they are fourth place finishes. This is a good spot for her so hopefully things can change.
2nd #3 More Fun Again tries her best usually and does a lot of traveling around the country. This is the fifth state she’s raced in this year. Sometimes the traveling can take a bit of a toll on a horse, but she looks good here so fingers crossed.
3rd #10 Fizzy Friday (GB) really improved in the last race she ran in at Arlington recently compared to how she ran the rest of the year. She has a lot of ups and downs which makes her hard to take but I’ll give her a shot based on her last race.
Race 4
1st #4 Witez “was never a threat” in her first race at Churchill, but ran better last out. Not every horse runs a good race in their first one. Sometimes they need another race or two before we see improvement. She ran third after that.
2nd #5 Sista of War is by Declaration of War out of Sista’s Stroll who was a graded stakes winner. Her first race may not look great on paper but she didn’t really lose by much last out and gained some ground closer to the finish.
3rd #11 Leeway for some reason doesn’t appeal enough for me to put her on top. She’s been training well and her trainer typically sees most of his success with turf runners, so she still has a shot, I just think she needs more experience.
Race 5
1st #2 Tiger Blood has had a successful career with thirty eight starts and fourteen wins and $362K in earnings. He’s one of those tough, older veteran geldings that is always worth a bet.
2nd #1 Fast Boat just ran third in a stakes at Ellis and ran a great race. At 4/1 ML, he could have a little value and with his recent form he is worth a bet. Joe Sharp trains him.
3rd #6 Sharm El Sheikh did something that is a bit unusual. Won at Belterra, and then came back for another win up in class at Ellis, which isn’t a cakewalk like Belterra. One to watch for.
Race 6
1st #9 Pugilist has three wins out of seven races this year, and a second and third. Another consistent filly who loves her job and a win at Kentucky Downs would only increase her value. On paper, she may not appear as accomplished as the other fillies, but she didn’t start running until she was three.
2nd #5 Cubs Win is worth a shot. She is a hard trying consistent filly who hasn’t been off the board this year and has been running well in allowances at Ellis. English Channel’s offspring are bred for the turf and love it.
3rd #6 Zuzanna is making her first start since she left California. She had a lot of success out there as far as earnings go, now she’s had exactly a month off since Del Mar. KY Downs will still be tough for her, but I hope she sticks around.
Race 7
1st #2 Patriot Drive is hands down a winner. He’s only lost once this year and it was at Saratoga, where he ran second. It would have been his fourth win in a row. Whatever happened last summer it has clearly been fixed and he is back!
2nd #4 Dontblamerocket has only been off of the board twice in twelve races. He shipped up to Saratoga and pulled off a nice win in a starter allowance. Hopefully he likes KY Downs.
3rd #1 Tolstoy has his hands full, despite winning two in a row, he is competing with some monster horses compared to what he faced at Laurel last out. He does have a shot of course, it will just be a challenge.
Race 8
1st #7 Princess Carolina I actually watched in person at Arlington last out, and she is a nice filly who always holds her own in serious competition and has a bright future for Ken McPeek. She will make a nice broodmare when she is done.
2nd #8 Wildlife got thrown to the wolves when she won two in a row at Del Mar but then went into a grade one. It is always good to take a chance but that was asking too much from this girl. This race is a good fit for her.
3rd #1 Indigo Gin didn’t fare as well as Princess Carolina that day, but before that race she won a stakes at Arlington. It was a big challenge for her, and I still think she has her hands full here too but will run better.
Race 9
1st #1 Social Paranoia has made $426K with only winning one race. Wow. I think this will be his second win, as the son of Street Sense has shown a talent running in graded invitational races in New York. Todd Pletcher trains and Jose Ortiz rides.
2nd #6 Channel Island doesn’t have the resume Social Paranoia has, but his career started at the beginning of this year. With what started at Tampa Bay then took him to Saratoga. He’s got talent.
3rd #7 Ry’s the Guy has had a good debut year, only being off the board once in six races. Again, just another horse who had a lot to face last out when he went from an allowance win to a grade one. Not quite sure why the connections did this honestly. It can take a lot of confidence away from the horse.
Race 10
1st #10 Paper Clip is trained by Wesley Ward, and she looks great on paper coming off of her last couple races which were really good at Saratoga, which is no walk in the park to run at.
2nd #1 Bentley’s Dream ran a really, really good race for being off for nine months. The Arlington second place finish earns this girl a little bit of credit as she is at odds of 3/1.
3rd #3 Even Beat is by Even the Score who doesn’t have a ton of offspring that runs anymore. She’s a filly that has potential just kind of hanging in there in each of her races, it would be nice to see her get a win, but I think this spot