2020 Kentucky Derby Futures Index
Week 4 (Part 2)
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
[Welcome to part two of the fourth edition of the second season of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index hosted by The Daily Gallop. For those of you that are new to this feature or perhaps need a bit of refreshing please refer back to the first edition of this feature that debuted on Friday, November 8th on the site for some background information on why this article was created, how it functions, what the determining criteria are and what the overall goal for this piece is going forward. Also I would highly encourage any reader to refer back to part one of this week’ feature (which was released on December 12th) in order to have a better understanding of the formatting for this piece going forward for this week as well as for the following week. In part one of this week’s Futures Index, I presented the latest contenders for the BUY List. Now, in this article, I am going to offer up an in-depth look at the pedigrees for all of the new additions to this list (many of these two year old’s pedigrees have been discussed in a prior edition and thus I will not rehash that information). I am also going to provide brief recaps of each of these contenders most recent race efforts, give out pertinent speed figures and update you all on these colts’ future race plans.
One bit of housekeeping that I do need to address before diving into the meat of this feature regards the Godolphin colt Maxfield. In the Week 3 edition of the Futures Index, I had discussed the reason for why Maxfield had been removed from the BUY List; however, the information that I put forth was not entirely correct. Rather than just having a somewhat serious ankle injury that precluded him from running in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Maxfield actually had surgery on that ankle to remove a bone chip (following the injury diagnosis by the vets at Santa Anita). While his connections are optimistic that he could return to the race track as early as February of next year, I’m not holding my breath as there is an equally likely chance that this colt may miss many if not all of the 2020 Kentucky Derby prep races and could be announced to be officially off the Derby Trail by Godolphin as early as next month (especially if it is taking longer than expected for him to recover from the surgery). As I stated before, Maxfield would be eligible to return to either the BUY or SELL Lists if he runs in a Derby prep race next year, but until then, he is going to remain noticeably absent from my BUY List despite his brilliant performance in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity back in October at Keeneland. With that being said, let’s move on to the portion of this article that everyone is here for: the analysis of each of these potential 2020 Kentucky Derby contenders!]
BUY
* Indicates Non Kentucky Derby Prep Race (i.e. awards no points)
1. (Last Week: 1) Dennis’ Moment (Tiznow-Elusive Quality; Dale Romans; Albaugh Family Stables; 4-2-0-0; 1st in the Iroquois Stakes (G3), 8th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)
The slotting of Dennis’ Moment into the top position on both this week and last week’s edition of the Futures Index was a tough call. I would have preferred to keep Maxfield on top but for obvious reasons (mentioned above), he had to be removed and unfortunately, the runner up, Tiz the Law, was a bit disappointing in his Kentucky Jockey Club effort. Furthermore, each of the runners that won their prep races over the last two weekends, did not put forth superlative performances and thus I did not believe that they merited top billing either. Basically then by default, Dennis’ Moment has been thrust into this position (heavy lies the crown indeed). Now I’ve already discussed the pedigree for this fine colt and why I believe that his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile attempt wasn’t nearly as bad as the end result made it appear. So let’s dive on in to what Dale Romans and the Albaugh Family Stables’ plans are for him going forward.
First things first, according to the work tab posted on Equibase, Dennis’ Moment has not had a recorded workout since the week prior to the Breeders’ Cup. This likely indicates that Romans is going to be giving him a significant freshening for the rest of this year and perhaps early 2020 as well in order to allow his young charge time to recover and rest up and grow into himself. Now it has been reported by the fine folks over at Horse Racing Nation that Dennis’ Moment will have just two preps as a three year old before hopefully lining up in the starting gates at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. It is believed that Dennis’ Moment will make his debut as a three year old in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 29th at Gulfstream Park. For those you scratching your heads at why this colt is going to receive such a light foundation of race work leading up to the Derby, it should be noted that the Albaughs also campaign the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity winner Thousand Words (in conjunction with Spendthrift Farm) and they have opted for a similar plan with that colt as well, electing for him to make his 2020 debut in Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on March 7th at Santa Anita Park. Now I am not thrilled about this decision as I generally would prefer to see these three year olds have at least three significant prep efforts underneath them as solid groundwork before tackling the classic ten furlong distance of the Derby. Thus for the time being, Dennis’ Moment will remain as the top contender on the BUY List; however, should he experience a setback in his training or run poorly in the Fountain of Youth, expect to see him swiftly plummet from the rankings.
2. (Last Week: 2) Silver Prospector (Declaration of War-Tapit; Steve Asmussen; Ed and Susie Orr; 6-2-0-2; 1st in Kentucky Jockey Club (G2); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)
Has Asmussen struck it rich and found his Derby contender with Silver Prospector? Time will only tell. As I mentioned before, I was rather impressed by Silver Prospector’s efforts in the Kentucky Jockey Club at the end of November over that very sloppy track at Churchill Downs. He displayed a newfound versatility in being able to rate off the pace for the first time, with Ricardo Santana Jr aboard, and was quite game when commencing a long drive turning for home and then being able to move clear of Tiz the Law in the deep stretch. The 103 TimeForm speed rating that he earned that day for his efforts is a bit paltry compared to some of the other speed figures being put forth by some of his peers, but it does mark a slight improvement upon the figure that he earned when finishing third in the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs back in October. Silver Prospector definitively answered any questions that day about his ability to handle a wet track as well as a two turn mile and going forward I believe that he should relish longer route affairs. It is quite likely that Asmussen brings his charge down to New Orleans for the winter to race at Fair Grounds and thus it is possible that he reappears in either the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes run at eight and a half furlongs on January 18th or in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes run at nine furlongs on February 15th. Regardless of which race he ultimately runs in, this is one colt to keep an eye on going forward.
With regards to Silver Prospector’s pedigree there are a few things that stand out. First, he is by Declaration of War, arguably the most talented son of the great War Front. Declaration of War was an incredible turf runner that spent nearly the entirety of his career racing in France, Ireland and Great Britain. Trained by Aidan O’Brien, as a four year old Declaration of War won not only the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot but also the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes at York. He then capped off his career with a third place finish in the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic beaten by just a nose and a head in his first try on dirt. To say that routing stamina flows through the bloodline of Declaration of War is to put it quite mildly. Now Silver Prospector’s dam, Tap Softly, was a multi-placed black type mare that raced on a variety of surfaces throughout the course of her career at distances ranging from as short as five furlong sprints all the way out to eight and a half furlong routes. Tap Softly won six of her 24 career starts and finished in the money 15 times, earning just a shade over $200K over the course of her racing career. While it appears she was probably at her best sprinting, she was able to give admirable performances when tasked with stretching out to longer route affairs. Thus while she is not a wellspring of stamina (rather she and her dam, Silentlea, convey a whole lot of pure sprinting speed), her sire and Silver Prospector’s damsire is the illustrious Tapit who has become known as an excellent conveyor of routing stamina. While Tapit only won three of his six career efforts and his performance in the Kentucky Derby left a lot to be desired, the stamina that runs through his bloodline (as well as his ability to handle wet tracks) has made him one of the most coveted stallions to breed to in the United States. Therefore, when considering Silver Prospector’s pedigree, it appears that he has a nice blending of sprinter’s speed (from his dam) mixing with routing stamina (from his sire and damsire) that should allow him to be triumphant when stretching out and attempting longer distances.
3. (Last Week: 3) Tiz the Law (Constitution-Tiznow; Barclay Tagg; Sackatoga Stable; 3-2-0-1; 1st in the Champagne Stakes (G1) and 3rd in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2); 12 Kentucky Derby Points)
Horse racing social media is noted for its civility, levelheadedness and thoughtful discussions, right? Well you might want to look back upon some of the conversations that arose following Tiz the Law’s performance at the end of November in the Kentucky Jockey Club as some of those “discussions” turned downright nasty. But to avoid descending into madness once again and for time’s sake, let’s take an analytical approach towards looking at that race. Early on Tiz the Law stalked the pace from just a few lengths off of front running New Eagle whilst in a pocket of horses. The situation in that pocket gradually became more precarious as Tiz the Law eventually found himself completely boxed in while racing through the far turn which forced Manny Franco to have to wait to make a move to tip his charge outside into the clear; furthermore, Franco was also quoted that he felt Tiz the Law was a bit intimidated by the presence of all these rivals surrounding him and thus was hesitant to respond to Franco’s urgings to make a move. Franco was forced to wait until the 3/16ths poles to make his move as at that point a seam finally opened up and from there Tiz the Law commenced a long drive between rivals but simply did not have enough at the end to hold off Finnick the Fierce and thus lost second.
What do should we make of Tiz the Law’s effort then? Well, this was his first time attempting a two-turn route as well as racing over a wet track and I believe that the inexperience in both those departments is what led to him tiring in the deep stretch. I think that the next time Tiz the Law attempts any race at eight and a half furlongs or further over a fast, dry track we should be able to get a better indication as to what sort of talent this colt possesses. The one issue that does concern me is Franco’s comments about his mount being hesitant to make a move on that far turn as if he was cowed into submission by his rivals; for a colt to retain such a mindset is a really bad sign for his chances going forward as things will likely only get worse as the fields get larger and other things (like massive crowds) start to affect his head as well. It appears that we will unfortunately have to wait until the beginning of February to get a better understanding of the mental fortitude of this colt as he is likely to make his next start in the eight and a half furlong Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. I would also strongly caution watching Tiz the Law’s work tab leading up to that potential start as it should provide some valuable information about how he has come out of that Kentucky Jockey Club effort as well as whether or not he is maturing physically.
4. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Shotski (Blame-Bluegrass Cat; Jeremiah O’Dwyer; Wachtel Stable, Gary Barber, Pantofel Stable and Mike Karty; 4-2-0-0; 1st in the Remsen Stakes (G2); 10 Kentucky Derby Points).
Following the aftermath of his first ever graded stakes win, Jeremiah O’Dwyer was quick to declare that Shotski is more than a just a one-dimensional colt that prefers to make his living on the front end of races. You have to hand it to Luis Saez for the actions he took during last Saturday’s Remsen as he made a keen assessment that his mount was the fastest horse entered into that field, he was perhaps the controlling speed in the race, and the track that day at Aqueduct was heavily biased towards those runners travelling at the front end of the field. So Saez gunned it out of the starting gates, dealt with some marginal pace pressure during the initial stages of the nine furlong contest, drew clear and then had to hold on and pray for the wire as Shotski began to tire late down the stretch with a hard charging Ajaaweed quickly gobbling up the ground behind him. In the end it paid off for Shotski, Saez and O’Dwyer as Shotski entered the national discussion for Derby consideration (especially given his 113 TimeForm speed figure despite a brutally slow pace throughout the race), Saez likely has the mount onboard going forward and O’Dwyer took another step forward in his career as a trainer in the United States. Speaking of moving forward, O’Dwyer already has a couple of races in mind for Shotski’s three year old debut. He is considering both the one mile long listed Jerome Stakes run on New Year’s Day at Aqueduct as well as the nine furlong affair of the Grade Withers Stakes on February 1st also at Aqueduct. In addition, as a testament to how highly O’Dwyer thinks of Shotski and his ability to ship well, the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds is also under consideration. Thus Shotski certainly has options going forward, though his pedigree bears examining to determine if he is best suited for nine furlongs and farther or if his career will be that of a miler or sprinter.
Shotski’s sire is Blame (quite possibly one of my top five favorite sires) who famously or infamously, depending on who you support, held off a late charging Zenyatta to win the 2010 edition of the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. Stamina abounds in the bloodline of Blame as many of his progeny have excelled going long over the lawn and this should certainly help Shotski’s chances of handling a mile and a quarter. Now the dam side of Shotski’s pedigree isn’t nearly as impressive, though his damsire is Bluegrass Cat who won the 2006 Grade 1 Haskell and was runner-up in the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont Stakes and the Grade 1 Travers Stakes. As for She Cat, this mare was fairly unremarkable in her four career efforts; however, her dam Fortune Pending was a stakes winner at eight and a half furlongs on the dirt. Before Shotski, She Cat’s two best progeny were a rather versatile couplet as they won over dirt, grass and synthetic surfaces at distances ranging from five to eight furlongs. On a whole it appears that Shotski’s pedigree is well-suited to continuing to stretchout and try longer distances. Furthermore, it certainly appears that this colt has inherited his father’s tenacity as he definitely was forced to dig deep and give it his all to get to the wire in the Remsen; going forwards, that ability should serve him well.
5. (Last Week: 5) Independence Hall (Constitution-Cape Town; Michael Trombetta; Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Twin Creeks Racing Stables, Kathleen and Robert Verratti; 2-2-0-0; 1st in the Nashua Stakes* (G3); 0 Kentucky Derby Points)
Just how good is Independence Hall? Could he end up being the next American Pharoah, a flash in the pan or perhaps somewhere in-between? Unfortunately, we likely won’t have that answer for quite some time, especially considering that his next start is going to be another one-turn mile affair on January 1st in the Jerome Stakes (Listed) at Aqueduct. I had stumbled into witnessing Independence Hall’s Nashua effort merely by chance and I am extremely grateful that I did as it was beyond impressive. For a colt stepping up into graded stakes company after just one prior start, he showed no qualms about tackling the momentous occasion. Jose Ortiz kept his charge close to the leader early on, stalking moderately fast initial fractions and then easily took command when entering the final turn and from there, Independence Hall never looked back and was given a hand ride for the last 1/16th as he easily cruised to a 12 ¼ length victory and a monstrous 122 TimeForm speed rating. The one thing to note from his trip notes for that performance is that between the 1/8th and 1/16th poles, Independence Hall twice shied away from the whip (well technically a cushion crop, but that’s a debate best saved for another time). However, given that this race was only his second career start, it’s quite possible that response can be chalked up to his immaturity and hopefully that habit will cease as he grows older and puts more races behind him. Though it is something to pay attention to going forward because if that response to being struck continues then perhaps Independence Hall is lacking in mental fortitude and that’s a major negative point for a potential Derby contender.
Since Independence Hall’s Nashua triumph back on November 4th, Trombetta has worked his charge three times up at his training base at Fair Hill in preparation for the Jerome. The first work back was a four furlong breeze over the dirt on November 22nd that seemed to be more of a conditioning affair than anything else. Independence Hall’s two most recent works have both come over the all weather surface at the training track at Fair Hill and the five and six furlong works run in 1:00.60 and 1:12.80 speak volumes about this colt bouncing right back into the groove of things following his most recent race. Trombetta was concerned about his colt potentially bouncing after that huge effort in the Nashua (he did improve 28 points according to TimeForm) and that is why he elected to skip running in races like the Kentucky Jockey Club and the Remsen in order to give his charge some well-deserved time off in order to keep maturing and improving and it certainly looks like this strategy is paying off. My only concern with Trombetta’s and the ownership’s decision to run Independence Hall in another one-turn mile race rather than something longer like the Remsen or one of the many upcoming preps down at Gulfstream is that it makes it quite hard to give a proper assessment of this colt’s true potential without a two-turn route race on his resume. Thus I’ll be sure to pay close attention to Independence Hall’s performance in the Jerome, but it will be the start after that (hopefully in the Withers) that I’ll be scrutinizing intensely as that one will likely let me know whether or not this colt is the real deal.
6. (Last Week: 4) Structor (Palace Malice-More Than Ready; Chad Brown; Jeff Drown & Don Rachel; 3-3-0-0; 1st in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf* (G1); 0 Kentucky Derby Points)
I’ve wrestled many times in these past couple of weeks over including Structor on this last and ultimately it’s the fact that he very well could wind up winning the Eclipse Award for Two Year Old Male (given his undefeated record and BC Juvenile Turf victory) that makes me keep him on the BUY List. I’ve already spoken about that Breeders’ Cup win, so let’s turn our attention to other more pressing matters. Following his most recent victory, Chad Brown made the bold declaration that rather than continue to campaign his charge on the grass, he was willing to mix things up a bit and let Structor try the dirt to see how he might handle it. As I had mentioned previously in the Week 2 edition of the Features Index, Structor’s pedigree suggests that he should be able to thrive when routing if he takes to the dirt and given that his running style is not truly indicative of that of either a dirt or grass runner, there is hope that Brown can mold this colt into being a quality dirt router going forward. But time will only tell and at the moment we are still very much in the dark about what is going on with Structor. The colt has not worked since his final prep leading up to the Breeders’ Cup and no timetable has been given as to when he might return to the work tab. In the next two months, Brown has a number of options as to where he might have Structor make his three year old debut with Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park being the main contenders and Tampa Bay Downs to a much lesser extent (and California is almost certainly not an option at this point in time). Therefore, I will keep you all apprised the moment I hear something regarding Structor’s next race and start seeing some morning works pop up on Equibase. Just be aware that given Structor’s low standing on the BUY List, he very could get bumped off between now and his next start by another horse that puts in a quality effort and not even an Eclipse Award will be enough to keep him on here.
Not Ranked (Last Week: Not Ranked) Ajaaweed (Curlin-Daaher; Kiaran McLaughlin; Shadwell Stable; 4-1-1-0; 4th in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and 2nd in the Remsen Stakes (G2); 5 Kentucky Derby Points)
Given the chance to look back on Ajaaweed’s performance in the Remsen, it actually was a fairly solid effort on this colt’s behalf. In a race that did not feature much early pace whatsoever (the initial fractions were quite slow, which is normally a really bad sign for a horse with a closing running like Ajaaweed), this son of Curlin was only three lengths behind Shotski but was positioned near the rear of the field. With veteran jockey Joel Rosario aboard, Ajaaweed maintained that position for most of the race until Rosario began to encourage him to move up through the field in the final turn whereupon he commenced a drive turning into the lane and was steadily gaining on the tiring Shotski before the wire mercifully appeared for the latter. Ajaaweed lost by just ½ a length (far less than the margin of defeat that was dealt to him by Maxfield in the Breeders’ Futurity) and the 110 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for his efforts was a career best by 19 points. Following the race, McLaughlin certainly appeared to be pleased with his colt’s efforts and indicated that a number of options were on the table as to where and when Ajaaweed might run next. It is likely that this colt will get some time off and probably won’t reappear until February at which point a number of prep races are being run at Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park and even Oaklawn Park. However, in light of the recent news that after the first of the year, McLaughlin is packing up his entire operation and moving it down to Florida (and not just for the winter it appears), a return to New York (unless the fields in those preps turn up rather light) might not be in the cards for Ajaaweed. Going forward it is important to analyze the pedigree of all of these potential Derby contenders and while Ajaaweed has already answered the question of being able to handle nine furlongs, let’s take a look and see just how far he can go.
Ajaaweed’s sire is the mighty Curlin whose progeny (most notably Vino Rosso) have been making waves in the past couple of years. Curlin was an absolute beast on the track during the mid-2000s as he won 11 of his 16 career starts and only finished out of the money once, a fourth place effort in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic, the final start of his career. As a three year old Curlin won the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes, the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup and capped off the year with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Monmouth Park. The following year he won the Grade 1 Dubai World Cup long with the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes and the Jockey Club Gold Cup again. Stamina clearly is abundant within the lineage of Curlin and many of his top progeny have followed him down the path of being successful dirt routers. Now Ajaaweed’s damsire Daaher is perhaps best known for winning the then Grade 2 Jerome Handicap (which back in 2007 was run in October at Belmont and not at the beginning of the year at Aqueduct) as well as the Grade 1 Cigar Mile Handicap. Prior to those efforts though, Daaher did contest the first two legs of the Canadian Triple Crown and ran fourth in the ten furlong Queen’s Plate and third in the nine and a half furlong Prince of Wales Stakes. Daaher concluded his career as a four year old with a seven place finish in the nine furlong Grade 1 Donn Handicap (the race that has since become the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup) and a third place effort in the Stymie Handicap at Aqueduct. Thus while Daaher may have been at his best as a miler, he demonstrated that he was at the very least capable of stretching out to longer route distances and being able to race competitively in those efforts. As for Ajaaweed’s dam Asiya, she ran just seven times in her career, hitting the board in five of those starts and earning just over $100K. The races that Asiya contested over the course of her career ranged in length from six to eight and a half furlongs and her best efforts appeared to come in those longer sprint affairs and short routes. Overall it seems that the pedigree of Ajaaweed has a nice blending of bloodlines in it with Curlin passing on boatloads of stamina to his son while Daaher and Asiya have given him a bit more speed than stamina. All in all, this is a solid pedigree and it should serve Ajaaweed well going forward. One thing to note though, is that historically sons of Curlin have taken quite a long time to physically mature and many do not peak until late in the their year old campaigns or even as four year olds (Vino Rosso being the prime example); therefore, it would be quite surprising to see Ajaaweed continue to improve by leaps and bounds. Instead I would expect to see his performances continue to get better but on a more incremental level and thus his best races might come after the Triple Crown is over.