2020 Kentucky Derby Futures Index
Week 4 (Part 1)
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
[Welcome to the fourth edition of the second season of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index hosted by The Daily Gallop. For those of you that are new to this feature or perhaps need a bit of refreshing please refer back to the first edition of this feature that debuted on Friday, November 8th on the site for some background information on why this article was created, how it functions, what the determining criteria are and what the overall goal for this piece is going forward. Contrary to what was discussed in the introduction to last week’s feature, I’m actually going to switch things up quite a bit. Now for those of you that follow me on social media, specifically on Twitter, you might be aware that I am the host of some other content for The Daily Gallop, namely the Race of the Week series and the corresponding Board Hitters and Bourbon podcast that covers the Race of the Week. Well considering that the year is winding down and quality stakes races across the country have become quite scarce, I’ve decided to put out a couple of crossover episodes of the Board Hitters and Bourbon podcast in these next couple of weeks. Thus this week the focus of the podcast will be on the BUY portion of this week’s Futures Index, while next week the podcast will discuss the SELL portion of this week’s Futures Index. Furthermore, in order to put out more content to you, the readers and viewers/listening audience, I’m actually going to split each section of the list up even more.
On Wednesday of both this week and the following week a short article will be released containing the obligatory introductory paragraphs and then either the BUY List (this week) or the SELL List (next week). On Friday morning then, a more in-depth feature will be available for your perusal and within it, there will be pedigree analysis, prior race assessment as well as revelations of future racing plans (provided they have been made available by either the trainer or the owner/s). Finally, on Friday evening, I will be hosting an interactive edition of the Board Hitters and Bourbon podcast in which audience participation is highly encouraged as we’ll be discussing the BUY or SELL Lists, why certain horses were included or excluded, your own personal Top 5 contenders as well as comments generated from social media (i.e. Twitter). Therefore, in order to make each show a success, I would likely to really encourage as much feedback as possible (whether it be through live interaction on the show or via commenting on the questions I’ve been posing this week on Twitter).
With all that being said, let’s get down to brass tacks and the main purpose of this feature: the BUY and SELL Lists! On Saturday, December 7th two of the final three Kentucky Derby Prep races for two year olds were run; the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack and the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity at Los Alamitos Race Course. There actually is one final prep race this weekend for two year olds, the Springboard Mile Stakes (Listed) held at Remington Park in Oklahoma, but I will not be providing coverage of that race. Of the two preps held last Saturday, I really was not impressed with the Los Alamitos Futurity. First of all it was only a four horse field, run over an incredibly sloppy track, and trainer Bob Baffert actually had two of the four entries in that field. The horse that ultimately won the race, Thousand Words, will likely find his way onto many individual’s Derby contenders lists but he will not be on mine. Thousand Words had the race set up for him throughout the initial stages by his stablemate, High Velocity, and then when it came time for him to pick up the slack and tack over down the stretch, he was barely able to hold off Anneau d’Or, the massive longshot that had finished second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last month. It was also somewhat concerning to see both Thousand Words and Anneau d’Or drifting all over the track down the stretch as if they had been greatly taxed by the eight and a half furlong effort (though the sloppy conditions may have played some role in sapping their stamina). If Thousand Words really was as good as Arrogate (as Baffert has recently made that comparison), he would have easily drawn clear of a colt that still has yet to win a race over the main track. Rather, I’ve elected to take a wait and see attitude towards Thousand Words. If he is indeed a very talented colt and puts forth an impressive showing in his next race, then he will certainly merit consideration for inclusion on the BUY List.
Conversely the results of the Remsen at Aqueduct are what really caught my attention. This was a race that I had handicapped as my Race of the Week and I’m chuffed to say that I correctly picked the winner, Shotski, and accurately described the manner in which he would win the race (with a gate to wire effort). This year’s edition of the Remsen lacked a proven pacesetter and those runners other than Shotski that had some natural early speed just were not as talented as the son of Blame. Jockey Luis Saez took full advantage of this and recognizing that the track that day and been incredibly biased towards those horses on the front end, he rocketed Shotski out of the starting gates and never looked back. Although, Shotski did face some token pressure from the likes of Chase Tracker and Prince James early on, he was able to cruise unmolested on the front end for the majority of the race and set rather pedestrian fractions throughout the entirety of the race. At the ¼ pole, Saez barely had to ask the colt and Shotski responded by drawing well clear of the rest of the field; however, it was withing the final furlong that Shotski began to tire and that rather large lead he had built up began to rapidly diminish as Ajaaweed came rolling down the stretch, swiftly gaining ground on Shotski. Fortunately for Saez, the wire appeared and Shotski held on to win by a half length over the hard charging Ajaaweed with Joel Rosario aboard.
After giving myself some time to reflect upon that race, I am a little concerned with the performance by Shotski. As I’ll be discussing his pedigree later this week, I would like to point out perhaps two important items that might be overlooked and may have contributed to him tiring late down the stretch. First and foremost, the Remsen is a nine furlong race. It is the longest prep race for any two year old potential Derby contender. Prior to Saturday, Shotski had never run beyond eight furlongs. Second, the Remsen is a two-turn affair. Shotski had also never attempted a two-turn route before Saturday as well. I believe that the combination of these two factors likely led to Shotski beginning to fade down the stretch; however, given his pedigree and with more conditioning, Shotski should be able to handle the nine furlong distance more easily the next time out. Finally, the effort by Ajaaweed certainly was admirable. This horse is a bona fide closer and he was towards the rear of the field throughout for quite some time in a race in which the pace was completely at odds with his running style. However, it certainly helped that he had one of the best jockeys for closers in Rosario aboard on Saturday as Joel never panicked and was able to maneuver Ajaaweed into position turning for home and then unleash that powerful closing kick of his that nearly got the job done. In the end, the efforts of both of these colts impressed me enough that they have merited inclusion on the BUY List for this week. Thus without further ado, let’s dive on in to this week’s Top 5 contenders for the BUY List.]
BUY
* Indicates Non Kentucky Derby Prep Race (i.e. awards no points)
1. (Last Week: 1) Dennis’ Moment (Tiznow-Elusive Quality; Dale Romans; Albaugh Family Stables; 4-2-0-0; 1st in the Iroquois Stakes (G3), 8th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)
2. (Last Week: 2) Silver Prospector (Declaration of War-Tapit; Steve Asmussen; Ed and Susie Orr; 6-2-0-2; 1st in Kentucky Jockey Club (G2); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)
3. (Last Week: 3) Tiz the Law (Constitution-Tiznow; Barclay Tagg; Sackatoga Stable; 3-2-0-1; 1st in the Champagne Stakes (G1) and 3rd in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2); 12 Kentucky Derby Points)
4. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Shotski (Blame-Bluegrass Cat; Jeremiah O’Dwyer; Wachtel Stable, Gary Barber, Pantofel Stable and Mike Karty; 4-2-0-0; 1st in the Remsen Stakes (G2); 10 Kentucky Derby Points).
5. (Last Week: 5) Independence Hall (Constitution-Cape Town; Michael Trombetta; Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Twin Creeks Racing Stables, Kathleen and Robert Verratti; 2-2-0-0; 1st in the Nashua Stakes* (G3); 0 Kentucky Derby Points)
6. (Last Week: 4) Structor (Palace Malice-More Than Ready; Chad Brown; Jeff Drown & Don Rachel; 3-3-0-0; 1st in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf* (G1); 0 Kentucky Derby Points)
Not Ranked (Last Week: Not Ranked) Ajaaweed (Curlin-Daaher; Kiaran McLaughlin; Shadwell Stable; 4-1-1-0; 4th in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and 2nd in the Remsen Stakes (G2); 5 Kentucky Derby Points)