2019 Kentucky Derby Futures Index
Week 5
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
[This Tuesday marks the fifth edition of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index feature on The Daily Gallop. At this point the premise of the article should be fairly clear to any of its readers, but for those individuals that are new to this piece, please refer back to the introduction sections found in the Week 1 & 2 editions that describe the overall purpose of this feature as well as the determining criteria that has been used when making the selections for both the BUY and SELL Lists. Following some very unexpected efforts by several runners this weekend at both the Louisiana Derby (G2) and Sunland Park Derby (G3), there have been some major shakeups to both of the lists. So without further ado, let’s dive on in and see which runners have cracked the Top 5 on this week’s Futures Index BUY and SELL Lists.]
BUY
1 (4). Game Winner: (Candy Ride-A.P. Indy; Bob Baffert; Gary and Mary West; 5-4-1-0; 2nd in the Rebel Stakes (G2); 45 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
It’s been quite a long time but now for the first time in five weeks, there is a new runner atop the BUY List. War of Will falls completely off the list due to his less than stellar performance in Saturday’s Louisiana Derby; although it was really through no fault of his own as he appeared to have strained a muscle a few steps after exiting the starting gates, which greatly affected his ability to run well throughout the race. Thus the Baffert trainee has inherited the top position by virtue of his performance in the Rebel Stakes (G2) two weeks ago. The 118 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for his second place effort in that race was quite solid and actually ranks amongst the highest speed figures run by major Kentucky Derby contenders at this point in time. What makes this figure even stronger is that not only is the figure not inflated from a ridiculously fast initial pace but also it should be kept in mind that Game Winner likely was not fully cranked up for that race and despite having posted a number of quality works going into it, may still have been a bit rusty. Game Winner’s gallop out immediately following the conclusion of the Rebel appeared to be quite strong and as a result, it seems he should relish racing even further as the year progresses. His pace-stalking running style should be of great benefit to him going forward as he has consistently demonstrated that he can close quite effectively provided he has a moderate to fast pace to chase after (a scenario he likely will encounter in the Derby in May). At the moment Baffert is considering running him in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 6th and as such, Game Winner has already put in a very solid four furlong work today over the much maligned surface at Santa Anita. Even if he is one of the top three or four betting choices on Derby Day, Game Winner may still offer some value as this year’s edition of the Run for the Roses appears to be wide open and the post time favorite could be as high as 4-1 or 5-1 given the amount of parity amongst this year’s three year old class.
2 (5). Omaha Beach: (War Front-Seeking the Gold; Richard Mandella; Fox Hill Farms; 6-2-3-1; 1st in the Rebel Stakes (G2); 37.5 Kentucky Derby points)
Omaha Beach put on a very impressive display in the Rebel two weeks ago when stepping up to graded stakes company for the first time and should absolutely be watched with intense interest going forward as this colt has the makings of a solid Kentucky Derby contender. The 119 TimeForm speed rating that he earned in the Rebel was a slight improvement over the 118 speed figure he had posted from his last out maiden win over a sloppy seven furlongs at Santa Anita, but more importantly demonstrated that his maiden effort was no fluke. Omaha Beach’s gallop out immediately following the conclusion of the Rebel was by all accounts very impressive and the hybrid pace-pressing/pace-stalking running style he has displayed thus far should serve him well going forward. With 37.5 points towards the Kentucky Derby already, Omaha Beach should theoretically be firmly into the Derby field at this point but given the absolute unpredictability of this year’s prep season its unclear where the cutoff will occur. As a result, it’s really not all that surprising that Mandella wants to run him once more before May 4th. As such, Omaha Beach will be forced to tussle with another Baffert trainee in Improbable and the other winner of the Rebel in Long Range Toddy along with several other runners in the Arkansas Derby on April 13th. A fourth place or better finish in that race will be enough to get Omaha Beach the necessary amount of points to be considered securely in the Derby field.
3 (3). Bourbon War: (Tapit-Artie Schiller; Mark Hennig; Bourbon Lane Stable & Lake Star Stable; 4-2-1-0; 2nd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2); 21 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
The moment for Bourbon War to shine will be this Saturday at Gulfstream Park in the Florida Derby (G1), where it appears he will likely take on a field of nine other runners (the full field is set to be confirmed and drawn on Wednesday afternoon), including familiar foes Code of Honor and Hidden Scroll. The 115 TimeForm speed rating that he was awarded for his second place effort in the Fountain of Youth was a career best for him, although he will need to continue to improve and progress in order to be considered a major contender going forward. The Fountain of Youth effort was important in that Bourbon War demonstrated that he is not particularly pace dependent as previously he had raced much closer to slower initial paces and still finished well. It appears quite likely that this colt will relish going even longer as the year progresses as he was rapidly gaining on Code of Honor as the wire neared and in fact easily went past him in the gallop out. Historically winners of the Florida Derby (G1) have done extremely well in the Kentucky Derby as since 2001, six winners of the Florida Derby have used that race as a springboard to go on to capture the Run for the Roses in May. Following his Fountain of Youth performance, Bourbon War has posted two solid but not particularly flashy breezes over the surface at Gulfstream Park; however, it should be noted that none of the works leading up to the Fountain of Youth were very impressive either. Bourbon War needs to at the very least finish in the money on Saturday in order to secure a spot in the starting gates on May 4th as his current total of 21 points is not enough for him to qualify at the moment.
4 (NR). Spinoff: (Hard Spun-Gone West; Todd Pletcher; Wertheimer et Frere; 4-2-1-1; 2nd in the Louisiana Derby (G2); 40 Kentucky Derby points)
Going into last weekend, trainer Todd Pletcher had exactly zero horses qualified for the Kentucky Derby (which at this time of year is quite odd for him); following the second place effort in the Louisiana Derby by Spinoff and the victory by Cutting Humor in the Sunland Park Derby (G3), Pletcher now has two runners firmly into the field for the Derby. Entering the Louisiana Derby, Spinoff was viewed as a dark horse contender with a possible chance of upsetting the heavy favorite War of Will despite the fact that this would be his first effort against stakes company in 2019. Last Saturday down at Fair Grounds, Spinoff acquitted himself and despite stalking four wide through each of the turns, he was able to seize command of the race at the top of the stretch. He was challenged by eventual winner By My Standards at the 1/16th pole, lost the lead but still ran on well to finish second, just three quarters of a length behind the winner. His gallop out following the race was solid enough as was the 116 TimeForm speed rating he was awarded for that performance. His pedigree suggests that the classic distance of ten furlongs should be well within his wheelhouse and although Pletcher and the connections have not yet tipped their hand as to Spinoff’s next race, it would be fair to presume that this colt will be in the starting gates on May 4th. There is certainly the potential that Spinoff could be greatly overlooked on the tote board on Derby Day and as such he may offer up an excellent price to those individuals that back his chances. Going forward though make sure to pay attention to his morning works leading up to the Derby as they will offer the best indication as to what sort of form Spinoff is in and how he might perform on race day.
5 (NR). Improbable: (City Zip-A.P. Indy; Bob Baffert; WinStar Farm LLC, China Horse Club International Ltd, Starlight Racing; 4-3-1-0; 2nd in the Rebel Stakes (G2); 25 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
While the news today that Baffert had removed jockey Drayden Van Dyke from his riding duties on Improbable going forward was not particularly surprising (after the extremely wide trip Van Dyke gave Improbable throughout the Rebel), what was shocking was the jockey whom Baffert had selected to ride instead: Jose Ortiz. This is quite an odd combination as neither of the Ortiz brothers normally ride for Baffert as the trainer is a bit more keen to take one of the West Coast riders he is generally more familiar with. However, it appears that Baffert is open to trying anything especially given the fact that Improbable needs to run at least in the money in his next start in the Arkansas Derby in order to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. The 117 TimeForm speed figure that Improbable earned for his performance in the Rebel is a solid enough speed figure and presuming he can continue to improve, he might mold himself into a serious Derby contender in the weeks leading up to May 4th. Yet, given the fact that his works leading up to the Rebel were truly exceptional and the fact that he appeared to be in fantastic form, his overall effort in that race is still a bit concerning. Thus there are some nagging issues that continue to surround him. Will this colt appreciate the stretchout to nine furlongs and beyond given the sprinter’s bloodlines at the top of his pedigree? Additionally, considering Game Winner has already returned to the work tab for Baffert whilst Improbable has not, exactly how much did that effort in the Rebel (after an exceptionally long layoff) take out of him? These are important questions that no doubt will be answered in the coming weeks and will hopefully give the horse racing world a clearer picture as to exactly what this colt is made of.
NR (NR). Anothertwistafate: (Scat Daddy-First Defence; Blaine Wright; Peter Redekop B.C. Ltd; 5-3-1-0; 1st in the El Camino Real Derby (Listed) and 2nd in the Sunland Park Derby (G3); 30 Kentucky Derby points).
Sunday’s effort at Sunland Park in the Sunland Park Derby run over nine furlongs marked Anothertwistafates’s first attempt over a dirt surface since his maiden debut (he had previously been racing over the synthetic surface at Golden Gate Fields) and unlike that maiden race at Santa Anita last November, this performance was exceptionally better. In a race in which a track record was set (due to the insanely fast opening fractions), Anothertwistafate initially appeared keen to contest the lead with rival Mucho Gusto going into the first turn but then was eased back by jockey Juan Hernandez and stalked the pacesetters for much of the race. He was forced to wait for an opening to appear in between two rivals at the quarter pole and once that opportunity presented itself, Hernandez took aim at the leader and Anothertwistafate slowly but steadily gained on his foe down the stretch, only to end up missing by a neck at the wire. The 112 TimeForm speed rating that this colt earned for his effort is a bit slow when compared to the numbers many of the other major Derby contenders are posting at the moment but is a fair figure considering how slow the pace was for the second half of the race. There is no doubt that Anothertwistafate would certainly relish going even further but at the moment plans for a future race are somewhat in limbo. There has been an equine herpesvirus at Golden Gate Fields where the colt is normally based and as such a quarantine has been placed on the track and thus Anothertwistafate is stuck right now at Sunland Park. Additionally, 30 Derby points may not be enough to get him into the starting gates at Churchill Downs and thus the connections are weighing their options whether or not to consider one more start in a prep race before May (likely the Arkansas Derby or Lexington Stakes at Keeneland) or to just wait until the Preakness Stakes (G1) for which Anothertwistafate is already qualified by virtue of his win in the El Camino Real Derby last month. Although this colt should certainly be considered a potential Derby contender given the new stalking ability he displayed on Sunday, pay close attention to see what race his connections ultimately decide to point him towards.
SELL
1 (1). Knicks Go: (Paynter-Outflanker; Ben Colebrook; KRA Stud Farm; 7-2-1-1; NO BOARD FINISHES IN 2019; 18 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
At what point exactly does this experiment come to its right and proper end? After a brilliant 2018 campaign in which Knicks Go burst into the national spotlight after scoring a massive upset in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and then finishing a game second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), it has all come crashing down in 2019 for Knicks Go and his connections. This colt has looked completely out of sorts in his two stakes efforts thus far this year and there have not been any encouraging signs that he is going to rebound out of this funk any time soon. At this point it has become quite apparent that Knicks Go was simply a flash-in-the-pan precocious two year old who now as a three year old is unable to keep pace with his rivals. The connections need to do the right thing and give him some well-deserved time off to recover before considering his next start which hopefully will not come until at least the summer. However, as of this moment, it has been indicated that Knicks Go is being considered to possibly make his next start in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland on April 6th, so pay attention to the field for that race when it is drawn in the first week of August.
2 (2). Plus Que Parfait: (Point of Entry-Awesome Again; Brendan Walsh; Imperial Racing LLC; 6-1-1-2; NO BOARD FINISHES IN 2019; 4 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
2019 has been a massive disappointment for backers of this ridgling after he finished a game second to Signalman in last November’s Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Thus far he has finished fifth in the Lecomte and then 13th in the Risen Star. His speed figures are trending in the wrong direction and perhaps a layoff or a change of scenery might be in order for Plus Que Parfait in order to get him back into proper form. Plus Que Parfait remains in training for Walsh and has recently posted two solid five furlong works over the training track at Palm Meadows. The ridgling has indeed shipped to Dubai to run in the $2.5 Million UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan this Saturday as part of the Dubai World Cup undercard. Unfortunately there has been no indication that even such a massive change of scenery will do him well and historically the winners of the UAE Derby (Lani, Thunder Snow and Mendelssohn) have all struggled when subsequently racing the Kentucky Derby. Thus even with a win in the UAE Derby, Plus Que Parfait would still be difficult to endorse going forward.
3 (3) Well Defined: (With Distinction-Medaglia d’Oro; Kathleen O’Connell; Stonehedge LLC; 7-3-1-1; 1st in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3); 10 Kentucky Derby points)
The 114 TimeForm speed rating that Well Defined earned in his Sam F Davis effort was leaps and bounds his fastest performance in quite a long time but, Well Defined bounced badly in his Tampa Bay Derby (G2) effort. Unlike in his prior effort in the Sam F Davis, Well Defined was unable to get out to an easy uncontested early lead and instead was forced to rate from just off of the pace. Whilst he remained in contention late into the race, it was evident that he had begun to fade down the stretch. He eventually finished eighth, six and quarter lengths behind the eventual winner Tacitus. Well Defined proved that his Sam F Davis effort was merely an anomaly, a result of his being spotted a large uncontested lead, and that when it came time to square off against other rivals that displayed similar running styles, he simply was not on the same level as his peers. Following his effort in the Tampa Bay Derby, the connections have not indicated any future plans for this gelding; however, that most recent performance makes him incredibly hard to endorse going forward.
4 (4) Instagrand: (Into Mischief-Lawyer Ron; Jerry Hollendorfer; OXO Equine LLC; 3-2-0-1; 3rd in the Gotham Stakes (G3); 10 Kentucky Derby points)
Regardless of how controversial this decision may be, Instagrand remains on this list for the time being. On the one hand, for what it’s worth after coming into a race not fully cranked up following a 210 day layoff (which sounds somewhat odd), Instagrand ran marginally well enough that there still is hope that he can improve and rebound from that performance going forward. On the other hand, following the conclusion of the Gotham it became quite clear that owner Larry Best’s gambit (despite the protests and reluctant acceptance by Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer) did not pay off as now the connections will likely have to scramble to find another race for Instagrand to run in if they still have any Kentucky Derby aspirations. The 118 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for his performance in the Gotham (likely influenced by the insanely fast early pace) was a career best for Instagrand but it ultimately remains to be seen whether or not this colt wants to even race beyond one mile. Perhaps he is best suited as a sprinter as his career progresses? Regardless, Instagrand will need to absolutely dominate his rivals in his next start before he can find his way off of this list. At the moment, it appears that despite Hollendorfer having just lost one of his potential Derby contenders in Gunmetal Gray to the surface at Santa Anita, he seems to be content to run Instagrand in the upcoming Santa Anita Derby on April 6th (if the track is still open at that point in time). The projected field for that race is filled with solid colts and as such does not look as if it will the potentially soft landing spot that Instagrand needs in order to accrue vital Derby points to get into the starting gates in May. Although Instagrand has put together some solid works since the Gotham, he is going to need to return to that brilliant two-year old form in a hurry if the connections truly want him to run in the Derby.
5 (2 BUY List). Mucho Gusto: (Mucho Macho Man-Giant’s Causeway; Bob Baffert; Michael Lund Peterson; 5-3-1-1-; 1st in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) and 3rd in the Sunland Park Derby (G3); 24 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
Mucho Gusto’s effort in Sunday’s Sunland Park Derby was bizarre to say the least. After previously displaying a beautiful rating effort over the slop at Santa Anita in the Robert B Lewis Stakes and then training quite well in the 50 days leading up to the Sunland Park Derby (after previous plans were scrapped due to Santa Anita shutting down and other stablemates having to be shuttled around), all that preparation went right out the window after breaking from the gates Sunday evening. Given the presence of so much other early speed in the race drawn immediately to his outside and the fact that he had drawn the rail, the ideal strategy for Mucho Gusto and jockey Joe Talamo would have been to sit back and save ground whilst rating along the rail. Unfortunately either Mucho Gusto was too keen from the get go or Talamo got it into his head to go straight to the front, but regardless of what happened, Mucho Gusto ended up dueling on the front end with a longshot, set blazingly fast initial fractions, and ultimately had nothing left in reserve turning for home such that two rivals passed him down the stretch. The 108 TimeForm speed rating he earned was a clear regression from his past effort and all in all, it was an incredibly poorly run race that likely cost him a chance at contesting the Derby in May. Going forward the connections will have to make the difficult decision of deciding whether or not to try and squeeze in another prep race before May or to take Mucho Gusto completely off the Derby trail because as of right now his 24 overall points is not enough to get him into the Derby field at the moment. If Mucho Gusto continues to be so keen on setting the pace in every race he’s entered in, he will be extremely hard to endorse unless he can encounter a pace scenario in which he is the lone early speed present.