1 (1). War of Will: (War Front-Sadler’s Wells; Mark Casse; Gary Barber; 7-3-1-1; 1st in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), and 1st in the Risen Star Stakes (G2); 60 Kentucky Derby points)
Once again it should be no surprise to see War of Will remain on top as thus far no other runner on the 2019 Derby trail has accumulated more points than this son of War Front nor has any other contender looked as strong when easily handling quality fields in both the Lecomte and Risen Star. However, that could very well change after this weekend when the two-headed monster of Game Winner and Improbable likely debut for trainer Bob Baffert in the Rebel Stakes. Although this colt has just three dirt starts to his name, both of his stakes efforts have been quite impressive as War of Will managed to pair up 110 TimeForm speed ratings in both performances. His primary running style of a pace-presser/pace-stalker should be of great benefit going forward as he looks to pull off the Fair Grounds trifecta when contesting the Louisiana Derby (G1) later this month. Since his Risen Star triumph, War of Will has posted two solid (but not spectacular) works over the track at Fair Grounds in preparation for the Louisiana Derby in two weeks. As he already has more than enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby (G1), barring any major setback, look for this one to be in the gates on May 4th.
2 (2). Mucho Gusto: (Mucho Macho Man-Giant’s Causeway; Bob Baffert; Michael Lund Peterson; 4-3-1-0; 1st in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3); 14 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
This colt was clearly second best to stablemate Improbable after fading late down the stretch in last December’s Cash Call Futurity at Los Alamitos. However, over a wet track at Santa Anita, he displayed a new facet to his running style as he was able to effectively stalk the initial leaders through the slop before making a bid for the lead in the final turn and then drawing clear in the stretch to win by nearly five lengths. The 111 TimeForm speed rating he earned for that effort was a slight regression from the 113 he earned in December but that newly found running style versatility and affinity for the slop should suit him well going forward. Since his most recent effort, he has posted several very solid four furlong works, while most recently he fired off an absolutely blazing five furlong work in :57.80 over the surface at Los Alamitos; although, it would have been more inspiring to see him easily drive past the filly, Flor de La Mar, that was working with him as the pair went down the stretch. As both of his stablemates, Game Winner and Improbable, are being pointed towards this weekend’s Rebel Stakes, Baffert has elected to send Mucho Gusto to contest the Sunland Derby (G3) on March 24th and should he run well then, he will likely qualify for the Derby. As Mucho Gusto does not have nearly the same amount of hype surrounding him as stablemates Game Winner and Improbable do, there is the definite possibility that he could be potentially be a bit overlooked on Derby Day.
3 (5). Bourbon War: (Tapit-Artie Schiller; Mark Hennig; Bourbon Lane Stable & Lake Star Stable; 4-2-1-0; 2nd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2); 21 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
This beautifully bred son of Tapit made quite an impression in his 2019 stakes debut for trainer Mark Hennig and his connections after finishing a disappointing fourth last December in a very slow edition of the Remsen (G2). Bourbon War displayed a new facet to his running abilities as after breaking well from the gates, he was guided towards the rail for a ground saving trip by Irad Ortiz whilst chasing a swift initial pace. As the field turned for home, Bourbon War unleashed a devastating late closing kick and nearly caught Code of Honor at the wire. For his efforts he earned a career best 115 TimeForm speed rating and demonstrated that he is not particularly pace dependent as previously he had raced much closer to slower initial paces and still finished well. After having taken more than a week to re-review and re-analyze Bourbon War’s effort in the Fountain of Youth, it is quite likely that this colt will relish going even longer as the year progresses as he was rapidly gaining on Code of Honor as the wire neared and in fact easily went past him in the gallop out. Bourbon War will likely get a rematch with Code of Honor in the Florida Derby in about three weeks time and should he at least finish in the money, he will likely make it to the starting gates on the first Saturday in May.
4 (3). Code of Honor: (Noble Mission-Dixie Union; Shug McGaughey; W.S. Farish; 4-2-1-0; 1st in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2); 54 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
It was quite evident that Shug McGaughey learned from his mistakes after he sent out a not fully cranked up Code of Honor to contest the Mucho Macho Man Stakes back in January. Following a disappointing fourth place effort in that race, Shug worked his charge in a series of seven workouts over the training track at Payson Park in order to have him fully prepared for the Fountain of Youth. All that preparation certainly paid off for Shug and the connections as Code of Honor, with John Velazquez aboard, caught a wicked initial pace and after effectively rating early on, were able to move up, challenge and then drive past a tiring Hidden Scroll down the stretch. The 118 TimeForm speed rating he received for his efforts marked a career best and it appears his running style is incredibly versatile (he has run well on the pace, whilst stalking the pace, and when closing from well back). This adaptability could be a major asset to him going forward as it does not appear that he is particularly pace dependent. However, after re-reviewing his most recent effort, that performance does not appear to be quite as stellar as it once appeared as Code of Honor was certainly the primary beneficiary of that scorching initial pace. Going forward, he will need to demonstrate that his victory was not simply a fluke and that he can run just as well should the early fractions be a bit more moderate in his next start. His connections have indicated that a potential next out start in the Florida Derby (G1) is likely, although he has accrued enough points already to qualify for the Derby.
5 (4). Tax: (Arch-Giant’s Causeway; Danny Gargan; R.A. Hill Stable, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, et al; 4-2-1-1; 1st in the Withers Stakes (G3); 12 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
Although Tax’s effort in the Withers was not all that visually impressive as he narrowly held off Not That Brady to win by a head at the wire, he has continued to improve speed figure-wise in each and every start and the 118 TimeForm figure that he most recently earned ranks as the highest speed figure earned by any winner of a prep race this year. Additionally, unlike many of these other three year olds, he has already has valuable experience racing twice at nine furlongs and will likely get at least one more nine furlong race under his belt prior to contesting the Derby; in contrast, many of the other major Derby contenders will likely only have one or two tries at nine furlongs before stepping into the starting gates on May 4th. He has posted three works since that victory in the Withers, the first of which was quite slow, whilst the other two more recent works suggest that Gargan is starting to crank him up again for a potential start in next month’s Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct; in fact his most recent work over five furlongs on the training track at Belmont Park was a bullet run in :59.60. Going forward Tax will need to prove that he can easily outlast weaker rivals down the stretch and have enough stamina and speed left to fire off a faster final 1/8 of a mile split as that closing fraction for the Withers was a fairly pedestrian 13 seconds. Additionally, the efforts of the second and fourth place finishers from last month’s Withers certainly did not flatter Tax at all as Not That Brady was a complete non-factor in the Gotham Stakes (G3) while Admire finished a well-beaten seventh in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). Should the third-place runner, Our Braintrust, who is listed as probable for the Rebel run poorly in that effort, the overall body of work for Tax may need to be re-evaluated and he could find himself swiftly removed from this list.
NR (*3 SELL). Mind Control: (Stay Thirsty-Lightnin N Thunder; Gregory Sacco; Red Oak Stable (Brunetti), and Madaket Stables LLC; 5-3-1-0; 1st in the Jerome Stakes (Listed) and 2nd in the Gotham Stakes (G3); 30 Kentucky Derby points)
Out of all of the runners exiting the last weekend’s Gotham Stakes, this colt appears to have the most upside (which is in fact in stark contrast to the assessment leveled on him going into that race). Prior to that effort, Mind Control had displayed a need to lead running style in nearly every one of his five lifetime starts. However, with so many other runners that also had a propensity to race on or just off of the lead entered into the Gotham field, Mind Control’s running style would have put him at a serious disadvantage as it likely would have led to him engaging in a speed duel on the front end. In turn, such a scenario might have seen Mind Control fading late down the stretch as he might not have had enough stamina to go on after contesting the initial fractions. Yet, this situation never materialized as although a wickedly fast initial pace ensued, somehow jockey John Velazquez was able to restrain Mind Control early on and keep him out of a front end speed duel, electing instead to sit well back and stalk from there. This new pace-stalking running style paid off in spades for Mind Control as he was able to conserve his stamina and speed and then move up along the rail to challenge for the front as the leaders made their way down the stretch. He seized the lead from tiring rivals Much Better and Instagrand and appeared to have a victory in his sights before a late-flying run from Haikal spoiled the day and forced him to settle for second. The connections have already indicated that a start in next month’s Wood Memorial is likely due to the fact that as of right now Mind Control is on the threshold of having accrued enough points to have qualified to run in the Kentucky Derby. Going forward, it remains to be seen how Mind Control’s second attempt at a two-turn route will transpire (as his first time in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) was just awful) but this colt certainly has the potential to be able to run well as the distances for future races increase, especially if he can continue to display that newly found pace-stalking ability.
SELL
1 (2). Knicks Go: (Paynter-Outflanker; Ben Colebrook; KRA Stud Farm; 7-2-1-1; NO BOARD FINISHES IN 2019; 18 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
At what point exactly does this experiment come to its right and proper end? Knicks Go burst onto the scene late in 2018 when he scored a massive upset win in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland in October at odds of 70.0-1 and then followed that up with a solid second place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) the next month at Churchill Downs at odds of 40.5-1. Since then things have gone all downhill for this colt as he was likely coming out of form and did not appreciate the sloppy track at Churchill when finishing 11th in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). His first start in 2019 in the Sam F Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay was rather ignominious as he simply had no chance after the field spotted the eventual winner, Well Defined, a considerable lead from which he never looked back, even after Knicks Go futilely tried to give chase halfway through the race. Knicks Go’s effort last Saturday in the Gotham wasn’t much better as he dueled on the lead with the Baffert trainee Much Better, setting a brutally swift early pace as they ran the first half of the one mile race in :44.42 seconds. However, that initial pace completely sapped Knicks Go of all the stamina he had as he was an absolute non-factor in the race by the three quarter mark as the field turned for home. That effort in the Gotham marks the third straight race in which Knicks Go has broken well from the gates and been on or near the early lead contesting the pace before fading badly in the latter stages of those races. At this point it has become quite apparent that Knicks Go was simply a flash-in-the-pan precocious two year old who now as a three year old is unable to keep pace with his rivals. The connections need to do the right thing and give him some well-deserved time off to recover before considering his next start which hopefully will not come until at least the summer.
2 (1). Plus Que Parfait: (Point of Entry-Awesome Again; Brendan Walsh; Imperial Racing LLC; 6-1-1-2; NO BOARD FINISHES IN 2019; 4 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
Plus Que Parfait would have retained the top spot on the list had Knicks Go not thrown in another clunker last weekend. 2019 has been a massive disappointment for backers of this ridgling after he finished a game second to Signalman in last November’s Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Thus far he has finished fifth in the Lecomte and then 13th in the Risen Star. His speed figures are trending in the wrong direction and perhaps a layoff or a change of scenery might be in order for Plus Que Parfait in order to get him back into proper form. Plus Que Parfait remains in training for Walsh and recently posted a sharp five furlong work over the training track at Palm Meadows last weekend; moreover, he is currently under consideration for contesting the UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan in Dubai at the end of the month. Whether or not he actually runs in that race remains to be seen.
3 (4) Well Defined: (With Distiniction-Medaglia d’Oro; Kathleen O’Connell; Stonehedge LLC; 7-3-1-1; 1st in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3); 10 Kentucky Derby points)
The 114 TimeForm speed rating that Well Defined earned in his Sam F Davis effort was leaps and bounds his fastest performance in quite a long time and as correctly hypothesized in last week’s article, Well Defined bounced badly in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) last Saturday. Unlike in his prior effort in the Sam F Davis, Well Defined was unable to get out to an easy uncontested early lead and instead was forced to rate from just off of the pace. Whilst he remained in contention late into the race, it was evident that he had begun to fade down the stretch. He eventually finished eighth, six and quarter lengths behind the eventual winner Tacitus. Well Defined proved that his Sam F Davis effort was merely an anomaly, a result of his being spotted a large uncontested lead, and that when it came time to square off against other rivals that displayed similar running styles, he simply was not on the same level as his peers. Following his effort in the Tampa Bay Derby, the connections have not indicated any future plans for this gelding; however, that most recent performance makes him incredibly hard to endorse going forward.
4 (NR) Win Win Win: (Hat Trick-Smarty Jones; Michael Trombetta; Live Oak Plantation; 5-3-1-1; 3rd in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3); 10 Kentucky Derby points)
One of the more highly regarded runners coming into Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby, the winner of the $125K Pasco Stakes (Listed) back in January over seven furlongs at Tampa Bay failed to back up that impressive seven and a quarter length victory Saturday evening in his first try at a route (and a two-turn one at that). Win Win Win raced well back of a fairly swift initial pace and it was not until the waning moments of the race as the field was deep down the stretch, that he finally got up to close into third, beaten by two and a half lengths. However, just like Haikal in the Gotham earlier in the day, Win Win Win appeared to be one of the primary beneficiaries of a quite fast initial pace in what overall was a very oddly run race. Perhaps going forward as this colt stretches out even further and potentially improves in his second two-turn start, he will be a factor; especially considering he is listed as a possible contender for both the Wood Memorial and Blue Grass Stakes (G2) in early April. Yet, at this point, the top three runners exiting that Tampa Bay Derby need to given a long hard and thorough examination to consider their chances of success and ability to make it into the starting gates on May 4th as that edition of the race appears to have been quite weak.
5 (NR) Instagrand: (Into Mischief-Lawyer Ron; Jerry Hollendorfer; OXO Equine LLC; 3-2-0-1; 3rd in the Gotham Stakes (G3); 10 Kentucky Derby points)
The decision to include Instagrand on this list will without a doubt likely be one of the most controversial choices ever made on this site. On the one hand, for what it’s worth after coming into a race not fully cranked up following a 210 day layoff (which sounds somewhat odd), Instagrand ran marginally well enough that there still is hope that he can improve and rebound from that performance going forward. On the other hand, following the conclusion of the Gotham it became quite clear that owner Larry Best’s gambit (despite the protests and reluctant acceptance by Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer) did not pay off as now the connections will likely have to scramble to find another race for Instagrand to run in if they still have any Kentucky Derby aspirations. In his prior two efforts, last year, Instagrand had displayed a pace-setting running style but it had been noted that he was not a particularly speed crazy two year old. On Saturday, Instagrand sat off the pace early on, before moving up to try and engage with Much Better in the final turn. While he was able to eventually draw alongside his rival, he simply could not withstand the additional challenge from Mind Control and appeared to fade slightly in the deep stretch and was thus fortunate to beat out Much Better by a nose for third. The 118 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for his performance in the Gotham (likely influenced by the insanely fast early pace) was a career best for Instagrand but it ultimately remains to be seen whether or not this colt wants to even race beyond one mile. Perhaps he is best suited as a sprinter as his career progresses? Regardless, Instagrand will need to absolutely dominate his rivals in his next start before he can find his way off of this list.