[This Tuesday marks the sixth edition of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index feature on The Daily Gallop. At this point the premise of the article should be fairly clear to any of its readers, but for those individuals that are new to this piece, please refer back to the introduction sections found in the Week 1 & 2 editions that describe the overall purpose of this feature as well as the determining criteria that has been used when making the selections for both the BUY and SELL Lists. Following less than stellar results from both the UAE Derby and Florida Derby on last Saturday, there really have not been any major changes to either of the lists this week, but all that may change as this Saturday three major prep races will be run: the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, and the Santa Anita Derby. So without further ado, let’s dive on in and see which runners have cracked the Top 5 on this week’s Futures Index BUY and SELL Lists.]
BUY
1 (1). Game Winner: (Candy Ride-A.P. Indy; Bob Baffert; Gary and Mary West; 5-4-1-0; 2nd in the Rebel Stakes (G2); 45 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
Game Winner returns to racing this Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) following a solid second place effort in the Rebel Stakes (G2) last month at Oaklawn Park. The 118 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for his performance in that race was quite solid and ranks amongst the highest speed figures run by Kentucky Derby contenders thus far. What makes this figure even stronger is that not only is the figure not inflated from a ridiculously fast initial pace but also it should be kept in mind that Game Winner likely was not fully cranked up for that race and may still have been a bit rusty. Game Winner’s gallop out immediately following the conclusion of the Rebel appeared to be quite strong and as a result, it seems he should relish racing even further as the year progresses. His pace-stalking running style should be of great benefit to him going forward as he has consistently demonstrated that he can close quite effectively provided he has a moderate to fast pace to chase after; however, after looking over the list of probable entrants for the Santa Anita Derby, the race does not appear to be filled with a lot of early speed type runners which may compromise Game Winner’s running style to some extent. In fact the main threats in the race to set the pace come from Jerry Hollendorfer’s Instagrand and Game Winner’s own stablemate Roadster, thus positioning in that race early on for this colt will be key to ensure that Game Winner has the best possible chance at finishing in the money on Saturday. Going forward, Game Winner has a legitimate shot at making some noise in this year’s Kentucky Derby and as there does not appear to be a clear favorite right now (given the amount of parity that exists amongst this crop of three year olds), there certainly is the possibility that even if Game Winner ends up being the favorite come post time, he might go off at odds of 4-1 or higher and still offer value.
2 (2). Omaha Beach: (War Front-Seeking the Gold; Richard Mandella; Fox Hill Farms; 6-2-3-1; 1st in the Rebel Stakes (G2); 37.5 Kentucky Derby points)
This son of War Front has the makings of a true Kentucky Derby contender as he was extremely impressive when stepping up to compete against stakes company for the first time in the Rebel three weeks ago. The 119 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for his efforts was a slight improvement over the 118 speed figure he had posted following his maiden win over a sloppy seven furlongs at Santa Anita, but more importantly it demonstrated that his maiden effort was no fluke. Omaha Beach’s gallop out immediately following the conclusion of the Rebel was by all accounts quite remarkable and the hybrid pace-pressing/pace-stalking running style he has displayed thus far should serve him well going forward. Although he appears to have enough points to be considered solidly into the field for the Run for the Roses on May 4th, Mandella still wants to give his charge one more prep before shipping him off to Churchill Downs. As such, Omaha Beach will be forced to tussle with another Baffert trainee in Improbable and the other divisional winner of the Rebel in Long Range Toddy in the Arkansas Derby on April 13th. A fourth place or better finish in that race will be enough to get Omaha Beach the necessary amount of points to be considered securely in the Derby field. Although Omaha Beach has posted just one work since his Rebel victory, it was a solid one in which he handily worked four furlongs over the surface at Santa Anita at the end of last month in :47.80 and provided he continue to train well leading up to the Arkansas Derby, he should have an excellent chance at winning that race as well.
3 (4). Spinoff: (Hard Spun-Gone West; Todd Pletcher; Wertheimer et Frere; 4-2-1-1; 2nd in the Louisiana Derby (G2); 40 Kentucky Derby points)
Entering the Louisiana Derby, Spinoff was viewed as a dark horse contender even though this would be his first effort against stakes company in 2019. Spinoff acquitted himself well in the race and despite stalking four wide through each of the turns, was able to seize command at the top of the stretch. Eventual winner By My Standards challenged him at the 1/16th pole, and although he lost the lead, Spinoff still ran on well to finish second, just three quarters of a length behind his rival. His gallop out following the race was solid enough as was the 116 TimeForm speed rating that he was awarded for that performance. His pedigree suggests that the classic distance of ten furlongs should be well within his wheelhouse and although Pletcher and the connections have not yet tipped their hand as to Spinoff’s next race, it would be fair to presume that this colt will be in the starting gates on May 4th. There is certainly the potential that Spinoff could be greatly overlooked on the tote board on Derby Day and as such he may offer up an excellent price to those individuals willing to back his chances. Going forward though make sure to pay attention to his morning works leading up to the Derby as they will offer the best indication as to what sort of form Spinoff is in and how he might perform on race day.
4 (5). Improbable: (City Zip-A.P. Indy; Bob Baffert; WinStar Farm LLC, China Horse Club International Ltd, Starlight Racing; 4-3-1-0; 2nd in the Rebel Stakes (G2); 25 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
When it was announced that Baffert was making a major rider change for Improbable in the form of switching out Drayden Van Dyke in favor or Jose Ortiz, the indications were fairly clear that the trainer was open to trying anything to help get this colt into the starting gates at Churchill Downs, especially given the fact that Improbable needs to run at least in the money in his next start in the Arkansas Derby in order to qualify. The 117 TimeForm speed figure that Improbable earned for his performance in the Rebel is a solid enough speed figure and presuming he can continue to improve, he might mold himself into a serious Derby contender in the weeks leading up to May 4th. Yet, given the fact that his works leading up to the Rebel were truly exceptional and the fact that he appeared to be in fantastic form, his overall effort in that race is still a bit concerning. Regarding his ability going forward as the distance continues to increase one lingering question does remain: will this colt appreciate the stretchout to nine furlongs and beyond given the sprinter’s bloodlines at the top of his pedigree? The other question that was posed last week regarding his work regime appears to have been answered somewhat as although Improbable posted a solid (time-wise) six furlong work at Santa Anita on Saturday, visually it was not all that great. Improbable refused to change leads turning into the stretch and was constantly pulling to his right the entire length of the stretch. This is slightly disconcerting as in each his prior works he had never shown that tendency before; although, it is possible that given those earlier works were all solo efforts and that this most recent one was run in company, Improbable could have been reacting negatively to his stablemate’s presence turning for home. Regardless of what the reason was for his reaction, Improbable’s remaining works leading up to the Arkansas Derby will need to viewed with intense scrutiny in order to elucidate what his chances are coming into that race.
5 (NR). Code of Honor: (Noble Mission-Dixie Union; Shug McGaughey; W.S. Farish; 5-2-1-1; 1st in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and 3rd in the Florida Derby (G1); 74 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
Code of Honor returns to this list after a two week hiatus following his third place effort in Saturday’s Florida Derby down at Gulfstream Park. This colt’s performance in that race is fairly remarkable given how bizarrely that race was run. Despite an abundance of speed entered into the field, the expected front-runner elected to rate instead and as a result a sprinter stretching out to a two-turn route for the first time in his career ended up taking the field in gate to wire fashion all the while setting an incredibly pedestrian pace. It was that slow pace (the opening fractions were :24.24 and :24.56) that greatly compromised Code of Honor’s ability to make up ground on the leaders down the stretch. Although jockey John Velazquez did his best to have Code of Honor more forwardly placed than he was during his Fountain of Youth effort, this colt was unable to effectively employ his late closing kick and as a result finished a distant third, nearly seven lengths behind the eventual winner. The 109 TimeForm speed rating he was awarded for his efforts was a major regression from the 118 figure he posted after winning the Fountain of Youth, but is a fair enough figure given how slowly the Florida Derby was run. A stretchout to ten furlongs should suit Code of Honor well and provided he continues to post solid works and encounters a more favorable pace scenario in the Kentucky Derby, then this son of Noble Mission has a legitimate shot at being able to run well late down the stretch and possibly hit the board at a great price.
NR (NR). Anothertwistafate: (Scat Daddy-First Defence; Blaine Wright; Peter Redekop B.C. Ltd; 5-3-1-0; 1st in the El Camino Real Derby (Listed) and 2nd in the Sunland Park Derby (G3); 30 Kentucky Derby points).
Anothertwistafate’s victory in the Sunland Park Derby marked his first attempt over a dirt surface since his maiden debut and unlike that maiden race at Santa Anita last November, this performance was exceptionally better. In a race in which a track record was set (due to the insanely fast opening fractions), Anothertwistafate initially appeared keen to contest the lead with rival Mucho Gusto going into the first turn but then was eased back by jockey Juan Hernandez and stalked the pacesetters for much of the race. He was forced to wait for an opening to appear in between two rivals at the quarter pole and once that opportunity presented itself, Hernandez took dead aim at the leader and Anothertwistafate slowly but steadily gained on his foe down the stretch, only to end up missing by a neck at the wire. The 112 TimeForm speed rating that this colt earned for his effort is a bit slow when compared to the numbers many of the other major Derby contenders are posting at the moment but is a fair figure considering how slow the pace was for the second half of the race. There is no doubt that Anothertwistafate would certainly relish going even further but at the moment plans for a future race are somewhat in limbo. Although he has already accrued 30 points towards the Kentucky Derby, that point total puts him in a rather precarious 16th Place on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard and as such, Anothertwistafate may have to make another start before the Derby in order to garner enough points to be considered solidly into the Derby field. A potential start in the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland on April 13th has been discussed but that race is just three weeks before the Derby and that cuts the margins way down on Anothertwistafate’s recovery and preparation time leading up to the Run for the Roses. With the newly found stalking ability that he displayed in the Sunland Park Derby, this colt could be a legitimate contender at hitting the board in the Kentucky Derby, provided he makes it into the race.
SELL
1 (1). Knicks Go: (Paynter-Outflanker; Ben Colebrook; KRA Stud Farm; 7-2-1-1; NO BOARD FINISHES IN 2019; 18 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
At what point exactly does this experiment come to its right and proper end? After a brilliant 2018 campaign in which Knicks Go burst into the national spotlight after scoring a massive upset in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and then finishing a game second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), it has all come crashing down in 2019 for Knicks Go and his connections. This colt has looked completely out of sorts in his two stakes efforts thus far this year and there have not been any encouraging signs that he is going to rebound out of this funk any time soon. At this point it has become quite apparent that Knicks Go was simply a flash-in-the-pan precocious two year old who now as a three year old is unable to keep pace with his rivals. The connections need to do the right thing and give him some well-deserved time off to recover before considering his next start which hopefully will not come until at least the summer. However, as of this moment, it has been indicated that Knicks Go is being considered to possibly make his next start in either the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland on April 6th or the Lexington Stakes on April 13th, so pay attention to the fields for these races when they are drawn in the coming days.
2 (5). Mucho Gusto: (Mucho Macho Man-Giant’s Causeway; Bob Baffert; Michael Lund Peterson; 5-3-1-1-; 1st in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) and 3rd in the Sunland Park Derby (G3); 24 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
Mucho Gusto’s effort in the Sunland Park Derby was bizarre to say the least. After previously displaying a beautiful rating effort over the slop at Santa Anita in the Robert B Lewis Stakes and then training quite well in the 50 days leading up to the Sunland Park Derby, all that preparation went right out the window after breaking from the gates. Given the presence of so much other early speed in the race drawn immediately to his outside and the fact that he had drawn the rail, the ideal strategy for Mucho Gusto and jockey Joe Talamo would have been to sit back and save ground whilst rating along the rail. Unfortunately either Mucho Gusto was too keen from the get go or Talamo got it into his head to go straight to the front, but regardless of what happened, Mucho Gusto ended up dueling on the front end with a longshot, set blazingly fast initial fractions, and ultimately had nothing left in reserve turning for home such that two rivals passed him down the stretch. The 108 TimeForm speed rating he earned was a clear regression from his past effort and all in all, it was an incredibly poorly run race that likely cost him a chance at contesting the Derby in May. There is the possibility that Baffert is willing to give this colt one last chance to get into the Derby by running him in the Lexington Stakes on April 13th in what has become a last chance prep of sorts. However, the timing of the race is far from ideal as it is just three weeks before the Derby and unless Mucho Gusto is the lone speed entered into that field, he may have a difficult time besting his rivals and winning to acquire the necessary 20 points that he would likely need to make it into the Derby field.
3 (4) Instagrand: (Into Mischief-Lawyer Ron; Jerry Hollendorfer; OXO Equine LLC; 3-2-0-1; 3rd in the Gotham Stakes (G3); 10 Kentucky Derby points)
Instagrand will continue to remain on this list for the time being although a solid effort in the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday would be cause enough for him to be quickly removed for this list. Instagrand has not been seen since posting a 118 TimeForm speed figure in the one mile Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct at the beginning of March. Following the conclusion of the Gotham it became quite clear that owner Larry Best’s gambit (despite the protests and reluctant acceptance by Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer) did not pay off as now the connections have had to scramble in order to find a race for Instagrand in which he might have a shot at acquiring the necessary amount of points (theoretically a second place finish or better) with which to make it into the Kentucky Derby field on May 4th. If the connections of Instagrand were hoping for a soft landing spot for Instagrand, unfortunately Saturday’s prep at Santa Anita is not it as the field appears to be quite solid and Instagrand will likely have to square off with not one but two Baffert trainees in that race. While Instagrand does appear to be the controlling speed in the Santa Anita Derby, it remains to be seen whether or not this colt even wants to race beyond a mile and his ability will surely be tested not only by the nine furlong distance but also by the presence of several other runners in that field that will likely be keen to be forwardly placed and pressing or stalking the pace. Although the last two five furlong works over the surface at Los Alamitos were exceptionally solid for Instagrand, serious doubts continue to surround him and until he puts in a performance that manages to alleviate those concerns, he cannot be endorsed.
4 (2). Plus Que Parfait: (Point of Entry-Awesome Again; Brendan Walsh; Imperial Racing LLC; 7-2-1-2; 1st in the UAE Derby (G2); 104 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
Up until Saturday, 2019 had been a massive disappointment for backers of this ridgling after he finished a game second to Signalman in last November’s Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Prior to his triumph in the UAE Derby, he had finished fifth in the Lecomte and then 13th in the Risen Star. Normally the three year old on the top of the Kentucky Derby Points Leaderboard should not be found on the Sell List for a Futures Index, especially when it appears that after weeks of his stock tumbling, Plus Que Parfait benefited immensely from a change in scenery and perhaps now has his stock trending in the right direction. Not so fast. There is ample reason to doubt the chances of Plus Que Parfait going forward. The last four winners of the UAE Derby dating back to Mubtaahij in 2015 all ran poorly in their next start in the Kentucky Derby. One possible reason for this might be due to the fact that shipping a horse to and from Dubai (where it must remain in quarantine both in Dubai and then back in its home country) seems to take a massive hit on the fitness levels of these runners. Additionally, it is apparent that Plus Que Parfait was not talented enough to best some fairly weak fields this year when racing in the United States and yet still had to ship abroad to take on an even weaker field in order to acquire the necessary points to make it into the starting gates on May 4th. Finally, as the surface at Meydan is generally speed favoring, Plus Que Parfait’s newly found running style will not be to his benefit when racing at Churchill Downs next month as that track generally plays more fairly. Thus it is quite difficult to endorse this colt for having any shot whatsoever in the Kentucky Derby.
5 (NR) Vekoma: (Candy Ride-Speightstown; George Weaver; R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables; 3-2-0-1; 3rd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2); 10 Kentucky Derby points)
At the moment Vekoma is listed as being under consideration for Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland although the field has yet to be finalized for that race as the post position draw will not occur until Wednesday. Vekoma has not been seen since the beginning of last month when posting a 115 TimeForm speed rating for his third place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, nearly three lengths behind Code of Honor. Vekoma was much further back in the field for that race than in his prior two efforts, though this was likely due to the swift initial fractions that were set forth. If Vekoma were to revert to his earlier pace-pressing/pace-stalking running style in the Blue Grass Stakes then he might have a better chance of finishing on the board especially if a moderate to slow early pace ensues. However, there are concerns surrounding his ability to get nine furlongs given the bottom half of his pedigree contains the bloodline of the preeminent sprinter Speightstown. Additionally, his recent works have not been all that quick and considering that Vekoma needs to finish at least first or second on Saturday in order to get into the starting gates on May 4th, that may be a very tall task for this young colt. As such it is difficult to endorse his chances as it appears he may be better suited as a sprinter or one-turn miler going forward.