2019 Kentucky Derby Futures Index
Week 7
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
[This Tuesday marks the seventh edition of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index feature on The Daily Gallop. At this point the premise of the article should be fairly clear to any of its readers, but for those individuals that are new to this piece, please refer back to the introduction sections found in the Week 1 & 2 editions that describe the overall purpose of this feature as well as the determining criteria that has been used when making the selections for both the BUY and SELL Lists. As the majority of the Kentucky Derby preps have concluded at this point (with the exception of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park and the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland both on Saturday), the Futures Index will be shifting course slightly and as such will no longer be including horses that are out of the current Top 20 on the Kentucky Derby Points Leaderboard (with the exception of those runners racing in this weekend’s prep races). Therefore, horses like Mucho Gusto, whom trainer Bob Baffert has suggested may run in the Pat Day Mile (G3) on Derby Day, as well as Instagrand are no longer included on the SELL List. Going forward into next week only runners that can potentially offer good value as they appear to possess the ability to either win the Derby or at the very least finish in the money will be included on the BUY List. Additionally, the SELL List will only include runners that are already into the Derby field but appear the lack the talent to hit the board in that race. So without further ado, let’s dive on in and see which runners have cracked the Top 5 on this week’s Futures Index BUY and SELL Lists.]
BUY
1 (2). Omaha Beach: (War Front-Seeking the Gold; Richard Mandella; Fox Hill Farms; 6-2-3-1; 1st in the Rebel Stakes (G2); 37.5 Kentucky Derby points)
This son of War Front will make his final start before the Kentucky Derby (G1) on Saturday at Oaklawn Park in the Arkansas Derby (G1). In that race he will face several new faces coming out of the other division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) namely Galilean, Improbable and Long Range Toddy as well as several other runners that are shipping into town. The 119 TimeForm speed rating that he earned when defeating Game Winner in the other division of the Rebel last month remains one of the highest speed figures earned by a runner in any of the prep races on this year’s Derby Trail. With his excellent pace-pressing/pace-stalking abilities, Omaha Beach figures to sit just off the initial fractions being set by Improbable or any other early leader in the race before moving up once again to get into contention at the quarter pole and then unleashing his closing kick. His two most recent works over the surface at Santa Anita have been absolutely impressive as his stride and movements throughout each of those regimens were nearly flawless. Thus it would appear that Omaha Beach is coming into the Arkansas Derby in peak form and as he only needs to finish fourth or better in that race to make it into the starting gates on May 4th, that goal appears to be easily attainable for him. If this colt continues to improve and mature, he is going to be a major contender on Derby Day and has an excellent shot at winning the Run for the Roses.
2 (NR). Tacitus: (Tapit-First Defence; Bill Mott; Juddmonte Farms Inc; 4-3-0-0; 1st in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and 1st in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2); 150 Kentucky Derby points)
Following a near cavalry charge finish in the Tampa Bay Derby only after encountering an incredibly favorable initial pace scenario that set up quite well for the late closing running style that he displayed in that race, I was not particularly high on this son Tapit’s chances going into the Wood Memorial. However, I was proven wrong asTacitus displayed yet another new facet to his running abilities as this time, he employed a beautiful pace-stalking trip throughout much of the early stages of the race before drawing level with rival Tax in the stretch before eventually besting his foe by one and a quarter lengths at the wire. The 120 TimeForm speed rating he was awarded for winning the Wood following a moderate initial pace set-up is currently the highest speed figure earned by any Derby prep race winner this year. Additionally, Tacitus is the first three year old to win back to back major preps which is even more impressive considering he still is a bit green and definitely can still mature. Tacitus has now squared off against fairly large fields in each of his last two preps and proven that he can handle and overcome any sort of adversity that he might encounter. He appears to have loads of raw talent and with that remarkably versatile running style of his, Tacitus could very well be the best chance Tapit has ever had of producing a son that can win the Kentucky Derby.
3 (5 on the Sell List) Vekoma: (Candy Ride-Speightstown; George Weaver; R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables; 4-3-0-1; 3rd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and 1st in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2); 110 Kentucky Derby points)
Perhaps he aspires to be a windmill, a paddlewheel or a wind turbine gone astray. Whatever the case may be it is quite hard to determine exactly how this son of Candy Ride can be so effective charging down the stretch with such a bizarre paddling motion to his stride. I had dismissed his chances at not only handling the nine furlong distance of last Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes but also his ability to stretch out even further to get the classic ten furlongs of the Derby and I can happily say I was proven wrong in person down in Lexington that day. Vekoma was initially quite forwardly placed in that race (much closer to the front than many had expected) as he pressed the modest early fractions being set by rival Somelikeithotbrown over a slightly speed favoring surface. He then seized command of the race with a burst of shambling speed as the field turned for home and easily opened up several lengths on his rivals, eventually winning by three and a half lengths over a late-charging Win Win Win. The 119 TimeForm speed rating that he earned ties his career best earned in last year’s Nashua Stakes (G3). Now whether or not Vekoma can overcome the large amount of sprinters’ speed influence found in the dam side of his family remains to be seen. However, if he can continue to improve and post a number of quality works leading up to the Derby, he must be respected as a legitimate contender regardless of how awkward that stride of his may look.
4 (1). Game Winner: (Candy Ride-A.P. Indy; Bob Baffert; Gary and Mary West; 6-4-2-0; 2nd in the Rebel Stakes (G2) and 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby (G1); 85 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
Game Winner’s performance on Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby was more than slightly concerning. In a compact field of just six horses, he ran quite wide throughout the entirety of the race, whilst stalking a very slow early pace over a very deep and sandy track at Santa Anita. Although he eventually was able to draw clear of his rivals by the 16th pole, he could not fend off the hard-charging rally from stablemate Roadster and ended up finishing second by half a length at the wire. This now marks the second race in a row where Game Winner has been beaten as the odds-on favorite. His wide trip throughout that effort might have very well cost him the race and as it is incredibly disconcerting to see a horse in his final prep either lose ground in the stretch or get caught, Game Winner should be put on notice immediately. Furthermore the 115 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for that effort was a slight regression from the 118 figure he posted for his Rebel Stakes performance although the slower speed figure may be most likely due to the overall slow final time of the Santa Anita Derby. This son of Candy Ride’s once bright star has now become a bit tarnished and although he remains a formidable horse that runs his heart out every time, he is now going to have to show that he knows how to close out a race by putting away his foes and will need to finish well in the Derby for him to have any chance whatsoever at hitting the board or even winning on May 4th.
5 (5). Code of Honor: (Noble Mission-Dixie Union; Shug McGaughey; W.S. Farish; 5-2-1-1; 1st in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and 3rd in the Florida Derby (G1); 74 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
This colt’s performance in that race is fairly remarkable given how bizarrely that race was run. Despite an abundance of speed entered into the field, the expected front-runner elected to rate instead and as a result a sprinter stretching out to a two-turn route for the first time in his career ended up taking the field in gate to wire fashion all the while setting an incredibly pedestrian pace. It was that slow pace (the opening fractions were :24.24 and :24.56) that greatly compromised Code of Honor’s ability to make up ground on the leaders down the stretch. Although jockey John Velazquez did his best to have Code of Honor more forwardly placed than he was during his Fountain of Youth effort, this colt was unable to effectively employ his late closing kick and as a result finished a distant third, nearly seven lengths behind the eventual winner. The 109 TimeForm speed rating he was awarded for his efforts was a major regression from the 118 figure he posted after winning the Fountain of Youth, but is a fair enough figure given how slowly the Florida Derby was run. Despite having trained well over the deep surface at Payson Park, Code of Honor will now need to show that he can handle the track at Churchill Downs depending upon when McGaughey ships him there. Additionally, even though he has managed to stay fairly straight when running down the stretch in his most recent works, in each of his last two prep races, this colt has drifted a bit down the lane (perhaps due to loss of focus or becoming tired) and will need to correct that action to have any chance at hitting the board in the Derby. Thus keep an eye on this son of Noble Mission in the weeks leading up to the Derby to see how he is training and to determine what sort of form he is in as it appears that he should be able to handle ten furlongs and has a very good chance to be closing late, especially if the pace in front of him is moderate enough.
NR (4). Improbable: (City Zip-A.P. Indy; Bob Baffert; WinStar Farm LLC, China Horse Club International Ltd, Starlight Racing; 4-3-1-0; 2nd in the Rebel Stakes (G2); 25 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
Improbable comes into Saturday’s Arkansas Derby needing a third place finish at worst in order to qualify to get into the starting gates at Churchill Downs on May 4th. The probable field of runners that he will face in that race is an incredibly solid bunch and will present a major test for him especially given that there is the possibility that he could end up dictating the pace on the front end and have to hold off that pace-stalkers and closers that will come calling as the field turns for home. In his Rebel performance, he was wide throughout the entire race and as a result not only will he have a new jockey onboard on Saturday in the form of Jose Ortiz but Baffert will also add blinkers in hopes that this colt does not lose his focus once again down the stretch. The 117 TimeForm speed rating that he earned in his 2019 debut in the Rebel was a fairly solid figure and provided he can continue to improve upon that number, Improbable has a decent chance at winning the Arkansas Derby. Yet, there are some concerns that may temper that enthusiasm going forward into the first Saturday in May. First and foremost, his pedigree with the sprinter’s bloodlines on top may limit his abilities at stretching out to nine furlongs and beyond. Additionally, in both of his two most recent works over the track at Santa Anita, Improbable has been cocking his head to the right turning into and continuing down the stretch and even pulling slightly to that side despite corrections from his rider. Although his stride is quite smooth throughout each of these works, it is that head motion that is concerning as he had previously never displayed such an action in any of his prior regimens over the track. Thus Saturday will be of the utmost important to trying to determine exactly how talented this colt may be and what his chances are going forward.
SELL
1 (1). Knicks Go: (Paynter-Outflanker; Ben Colebrook; KRA Stud Farm; 7-2-1-1; NO BOARD FINISHES IN 2019; 18 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
I really don’t enjoy repeating myself but in all seriousness at what point exactly does this experiment come to its right and proper end? After a brilliant 2018 campaign in which Knicks Go burst into the national spotlight after scoring a massive upset in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and then finishing a game second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), it has all come crashing down in 2019 for Knicks Go and his connections. This colt has looked completely out of sorts in his two stakes efforts thus far this year and there have not been any encouraging signs that he is going to rebound out of this funk any time soon. At this point it has become quite apparent that Knicks Go was simply a flash-in-the-pan precocious two year old who now as a three year old is unable to keep pace with his rivals. The connections need to do the right thing and give him some well-deserved time off to recover before considering his next start which hopefully will not come until at least the summer. However, as of this writing, Colebrook has had this colt working over the track at Keeneland in preparation for a possible appearance in Saturday’s Lexington Stakes at Keeneland where in all honesty he does not really have a shot in that field. Additionally, even if he were to win and acquire the 20 points associated with that race, Knicks Go would only have a grand total of 38 points towards the Derby which could potentially leave him still outside of the Top 20 of the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard on Saturday evening.
2 (NR). Gray Magician: (Graydar-Johannesburg; Peter Miller; Wachtel Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, and Gary Barber; 8-1-3-2; 2nd in the UAE Derby (G2); 41 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
Up until this weekend, the connections for this colt had firmly suggested that they were not even considering racing him in the Kentucky Derby; apparently they had a change of heart and are now considering entering him into the starting gates at Churchill Downs on May 4th. Gray Magician has only won once in eight career starts and prior to that second place effort in the UAE Derby the best finish he had ever had was a well beaten second to Alwaysmining in the Miracle Wood Stakes back in February at Laurel Park. Although he was wide throughout the entire far turn and stretch run during his performance in the UAE Derby, he was able to sustain a long drive down the stretch albeit in a race that set up quite well for runners coming from off of the pace. His pedigree is riddled with question marks as his damsire was primarily a sprinter whilst Graydar never raced beyond nine furlongs. Additionally, that long trip to and from Dubai along with the corresponding quarantines generally seems to take a lot out of these runners and as a result Gray Magician might take a bit longer to recover than some of the other Derby contenders exiting their final Derby prep. Finally, the field that was signed on for that edition of the UAE Derby was not particularly strong and as a result, it is very difficult to endorse any runner coming out of that race.
3 (4). Plus Que Parfait: (Point of Entry-Awesome Again; Brendan Walsh; Imperial Racing LLC; 7-2-1-2; 1st in the UAE Derby (G2); 104 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
Up until last Saturday, 2019 had been a massive disappointment for backers of this ridgling after he finished a game second to Signalman in last November’s Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Prior to his triumph in the UAE Derby, he had finished fifth in the Lecomte and then 13th in the Risen Star. Normally one of the top three year olds on the Kentucky Derby Points Leaderboard should not be found on the Sell List for a Futures Index, especially when it appears that after weeks of his stock tumbling, Plus Que Parfait benefited immensely from a change in scenery and perhaps now has his stock trending in the right direction. Not so fast. There is ample reason to doubt the chances of Plus Que Parfait going forward. The last four winners of the UAE Derby dating back to Mubtaahij in 2015 all ran poorly in their next start in the Kentucky Derby. One possible reason for this might be due to the fact that shipping a horse to and from Dubai (where it must remain in quarantine both in Dubai and then back in its home country) seems to take a massive hit on the fitness levels of these runners. Additionally, it is apparent that Plus Que Parfait was not talented enough to best some fairly weak fields this year when racing in the United States and yet still had to ship abroad to take on an even weaker field in order to acquire the necessary points to make it into the starting gates on May 4th. Finally, as the surface at Meydan is generally speed favoring, Plus Que Parfait’s newly found running style will not be to his benefit when racing at Churchill Downs next month as that track generally plays more fairly. Thus it is quite difficult to endorse this colt for having any shot whatsoever in the Kentucky Derby.
4 (NR). Bodexpress: (Bodemeister-City Zip; Gustavo Delgado; Top Racing LLC, Global Thoroughbred and GDS Racing Stable; 5-0-3-0; 2nd in the Florida Derby (G1); 40 Kentucky Derby points)
The historical stats concerning maidens racing in the Kentucky Derby does not bode well for Bodexpress. Since its inception, just three maidens, Buchanan (1884), Sir Barton (1919) and Brokers Tip (1933) have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby and of those three, only Sir Barton would end up winning the Triple Crown. Moreover, over the past 40 years, only a handful of maidens have even contested the premier race for three year olds and the best that any of them has finished was in 1998 when Nationalore ran 9th. Thus the odds are stacked against this son of Bodemeister. Moreover, it is incredibly hard to endorse either of the top two runners coming out of the Florida Derby (although the winner Maximum Security does get a bit of a pass given how much of an asset his running style might be in an otherwise speed-lacking edition of the Derby). The first and second place finishers in that race essentially walked on the lead, whilst setting the slowest initial fractions of any of the major prep races to date and although both Maximum Security and Bodexpress picked up the pace in the last half mile of the race, they were never seriously challenged on the front end, a scenario that is highly unlikely to occur in this year’s Derby given the amount of runners that could possibly be forwardly placed after the start. Bodexpress’ 112 TimeForm speed rating is quite slow and although his pedigree (at least the top portion of it) suggests he should be able to handle the stretchout to ten furlongs, he would need to take another massive step forward on May 4th to have any sort of chance at even coming close to hitting the board. Thus it is my opinion that while this colt may possess some talent, he really has no chance whatsoever in the Kentucky Derby.
5 (NR) Cutting Humor: (First Samurai-Pulpit; Todd Pletcher; Starlight Racing; 6-2-2-1; 1st in the Sunland Park Derby; 50 Kentucky Derby points)
I was initially quite high on this colt after he was just able to hold off Anothertwistafate in the Sunland Park Derby at the end of March. However, since then and after spending some more time reviewing and analyzing that performance, my opinion on this son of First Samurai has changed. Cutting Humor was a major beneficiary of a ridiculously fast initial pace over a speed favoring track; that early pace set by Mucho Gusto was so fast, the race ended up being run in a track record 1:46.94. Although he ran rather wide as he stalked the leaders through each of the turns, Cutting Humor was able to seize a slight lead turning into the stretch and just managed to withstand a sustained drive by Anothertwistafate to hold on by a neck at the wire. The 112 TimeForm speed rating he earned for that effort is actually quite slow compared to many of the speed figures that have been put forth by the major Derby contenders up to this point and going forward, he would need to improve quite a bit in order to have any chance at being competitive in the Derby. Moreover, whilst Cutting Humor appeared all out down the stretch and was even staggering just a little bit, his rival, Anothertwistafate, appeared to have plenty left in the tank (so the speak) and thus perhaps nine furlongs is as far as Cutting Humor wants to go. Additionally, it appears that effort likely took a lot out of this colt as he has yet to return to the work tab which is not an encouraging sign and moreover could lose his rider especially is John Velazquez elects to ride his stablemate Spinoff or even Code of Honor. Therefore, Cutting Humor should not really be considered a major contender going into the Derby on May 4th as it is unlikely that he will encounter such a favorable pace setup once again and may not eve be able to handle the ten furlong distance.