I would like to start off by saying thank you to the Daily Gallop Team. You all continuously do a wonderful job in giving “random Joes” like me a platform to do something we really enjoy, handicapping races. Secondly, I’d like to thank Mike “Gorgonzola” McEntire for giving me the opportunity to cap his typical day of races. His size 7 shoe is, without question, a big shoe to fill but I’ll do my best to keep things rolling in the right direction.
The biggest key to today’s races will be the weather. I can tell you from living in the suburbs of Louisville that we got significant rain throughout the night which typically moves in the direction of Keeneland. Expect the main track to be muddy/good, the turf course to be yielding which will change some of our handicapping angles.
When this main track becomes “off”, the track plays very deep, rail is typically dead and closers have a large amount of success historically. Keeneland has a lovely 10 race card, featuring the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes G1 for 3yo fillies going 1 1/8m on the grass. No more wasting time, lets dive right on into the action.
Race 1 – ALW73k N1X going 1 1/16 on the dirt
#2 Eve Harrington 4/1 : Sure, we are going two turns but there is NO PACE in here whatsoever. Thus, I landed on this shipper from GB who had a gate drill on 10/5 :48.3 over this track and looked very nice in doing so. I would expect somebody on the Walsh team, if not Irad Ortiz, to understand from the inner posts, lets go to the lead and see how far she goes. NOTE: She was purchased for 200k in the KEESEP sale in 2017, didn’t debut until late ’18 but has been a very consistent and gritty runner. Will be tough in here with nobody else willing to show some early foot.
#6 Zena Rules 7/2 : What we consider a true HANGER, this mare just cant seem to hit the wire first. She has previously run some races that just tower over this field including the race two back at SAR against A14k. That day she broke well, was in her normal spot 5-7 lengths off the pace, stormed home only to lose to runner who beat an AOC condition next time out. The work on 10/4, 4f :48.4, tells me that perhaps there is no question shes ready to fire today. NOTE: This mare has had success at KEE (2-0-0-2) and theres no question this is the preferred distance for her (6-1-4-0).
#7 Tiz Ella 8/1 : I’d be lying to you if I knew exactly what it is about this runner that catches my eye but she does. A $500k purchase out of Tiznow, this filly has been far from “500k worth” in 11 career starts BUT… she does return to KEE where she broke her maiden going this distance today AND finds a much softer spot in here. NOTE: Pessin does have a winner already this meet…
Race 2 – MC 30k going 1 1/16m on the dirt
*** For anybody who might be heading out to KEE to play the $400 contest I have a sneaky suspicion this is a race that some will try and hit hard. It’s one of the more difficult races on the card and could produce BALOON type prices in exotics. ***
#10 Corkman 12/1 : This is a very, very common angle that I play that many don’t. (hints why I never pick many winners #FadeMe) The angle is this, horses who were sold for far less than stud fee, put in for a tag in debut. Typically this is a spot where you run as far away as possible but you’d be surprised when one of these runners pop, they pay BIG BIG numbers. Out of Curlin (Smart Strike) with dam side being Choral Symphony (A.P. Indy), this horse is bred to win early and run forever. The reason why I’m giving this horse, not only a chance, but putting him on top is the gate work on 10/2 at KEE :48.1. Another runner who did it with ease, looked extremely comfortable over the track and switched leads without being asked. Walsh has been on fire early in this meet, gets a capable jockey in Santana, and shouldn’t mind the off going as well.
#6 Baquero Flies 6/1 : This gelding for D. Wayne has an improving speed figure from start one to start two, which I take as a positive, then comes back 14 days later to work 1/2m in :47.3 (2 of 69) at CD. Perhaps its start three where the real running begins. I know he’s in for the same tag as his first two starts but this field, top to bottom, is much better than his other competitors in previous starts. Will need to improve but this “rare” work has my eyes open.
#7 Bring Me a Check 8/1 : You aren’t going to get chalk from me. I love value BUT I think this will be the common play for the public in here and is a MUST USE on multi race tickets. This colt showed some early foot only to run with an anchor tied to his back two legs for the last 3.5f. He was beaten a widening 16 lengths at Indiana in debut but shows a steady work tab, Calhounesque I’ll add, gets the major drop in class and now gets the stretch out. NOTE: Calhoun is 30% with runners moving from the MSW level to MCl, 14% 1st time routers (19% with babies under same condition), 18% with horses running their second career race.
#12 Game Set and Match 20/1 : If there is a horse where something bizarre will happen, here you go. This runner parked way on the outside for Phil Sims gets the hottest jockey in KY right now in Gaffalione, who can do no wrong. From the breeding side of things, the added distance should be a plus. I think being parked way outside, I would imagine that Gaff shows speed here and tries to get this one in a nice position early. It’s always up to the horse but with how confident Tyler is riding, I have full confidence that he’ll put this guy in a position to be successful. Will he fire? THAT, is to be determined but a live longshot nonetheless.
Race 3 – AOC 150k going 7f on the dirt
#1A Whereshetoldmetogo 3/5 : What a race this is. I hate saying that and then picking the chalk but there are a lot of capable runners in here. TO me, it’s all about class and both the #1 American Anthem who was just in the barn of Baffert, and this runner have raced against and performed against much stiffer competition then the “pick up a piece of it” runners in here. This runner ran so well off the layoff, although finished 5th, was only beaten 2 lengths to a horse named Engage who came back last week to score. Other runners in that race were Bon Raison and Laki. Horse has class, tactical speed and a late kick that just cant be matched in here. There are other capable runners in here but I’ll single and hope to move on.
Race 4 – MSW71k going 1 1/16m on the turf
*** IMO, one of the toughest races to handicap. MSW going long on the grass. That’s what we have here and it’s a loaded field of all kinds of capable runners. ***
#8 Mean Mary 8/1 : One of the toughest races to cap and I’m telling you this will be a horse that I could most likely single on almost, if not all my tickets? Makes sense, right? Personally one of might favorite first time grass sires is Scat Daddy. These horses seem to run huge first time on the lawn. When you combine that with Motion training (known for turf runners as opposed to dirt), nice steady work pattern off debut at Lrl and Ortiz lured in to ride? I think this horse has a big shot to run huge today.
#4 Loving Moment 6/1 : I’ve watched the replay of this runner from the KD effort 10 or 12 times and the fact that this one was beaten 5 lengths doesn’t tell the entire story. First, the effort off the layoff is something to note. This runner was parked in the 12 hole, broke cleanly, was wide throughout, made a bid four wide into the turn only to level out. I don’t have the numbers but I cant imagine the amount of extra feet this one ran compared to the rest of the field. I think second off the layoff an improve is in store, which makes this one tough in here.
#2 Great Island 4/1 : How could we ever forget Chad Brown? He makes training jobs look so easy with the slew of horses in his stable that are freaks on the grass. 300k purchase in the KEESEP sale, this filly looks primed to be the next big star for Brown. The work tabs are amazing, well bred, Brown gets his man in Castellano in the irons… seems to me this could be just another day in the life of Chad Van Brown.
#6 Joy of Learning 15/1 : My longshot play in here is a horse that might be 15/1 ML but there is NO CHANCE this runner is 15/1 as they load into the gate today. Filly out of Kitten’s Joy (El Prado (IRE)) is bred to enjoy the grass as much as any runner in here, going long shouldn’t be an issue either. Horse has been working extremely well for Lynch who is just 9% with FTS. When cappers in KY see a Kitten horse on the grass, they go to the windows and bet with both fists. I think she can run well today and wouldn’t shock me if she snagged the money if others don’t fire their best.
Race 5 – Clm 30k N2L going 7f on the dirt
#1 Delinquent 6/1 : I’ll be the first one to say that I don’t love the post for this one today but I believe the race will fall into his hands. There is a lot of early pace, especially from the outside, and I think we could get a very nice, clean trip from the inside and swing wide as we turn for home. Kobiskie has had live runners so far this meet and now ships this one in, 2nd off the layoff, dropping in for a tag for the first time, we could see a big performance today. NOTE: I don’t love the fact there is only one work from the start on Aug30 to today. It’s somewhat concerning BUT… this isn’t an uncommon way of going about things for a guy like Kobiskie.
#6 Debating 7/2 : I think we can completely toss that race last time out at CD. He was laid up for almost 60 days prior to that effort, was squeezed early and was never a factor. Gets a more favorable post position today, has the right running style, wanting to be just off the pace, and keeps Lanerie up. I expect nothing more than an effort that matches what this one was running back in the summer at CD (87,92 speed figures).
#12 Getyourmindright 12/1 : I don’t like seeing trainers, especially lower tier trainers switching horses from dirt to turf, turf to dirt then to synthetic. It doesn’t give the horse a chance to get in any type of rhythm whatsoever. I do believe this one will relish the return back to conventional dirt and enjoy this 7f distance. I love to see that this small trainer has a high success rate when dropping horses for a tag the first time (28%). NOTE: This colt worked a fast 5f 1:00.3 over the training track in Louisville. Why is this significant? The last time this horse worked quick, Feb10 effort, there was a 4f :47 and change drill prior to that, horse comes out and runs a 92 speed figure while finishing 2nd in a MSW at Tampa. Don’t overlook this one.
#4 Box of Chocolates 10/1 : Maybe its just me that thinks this is a bad ML but either way, this runner was claimed from Asmussen and ran a repeated speed figure first time out for new trainer. Now after running a decent 3rd at the 50k level, gets the drop to 30k, has early speed with no other speed around him so should get a clear lane to the front early. If ones to the far outside don’t fire or theres trouble early, perhaps wire to wire at a number? Not completely crazy.
Race 6 – MSW71k going 6.5f on the dirt
#4 Day Dayenu 3/1 : This Into Mischief filly switches from Abreu to Casse barn and has been working extremely well over the CD track. If you keep up with horse racing at all, you know that the Into Mischief sire is on fire. Those runners are winning at a high rate and I think with an upgrade in trainer, upgrade in jockey, that’s all this one will need to get the job done today. NOTE: I really like how Casse got a 5/8ths work in with this one. I think 5/8ths are much more important than 1/2m drills in regards to building stamina.
#3 Loaded 12/1 : My favorite FTS of the bunch is this one for Arnold who isn’t known for winning first time out BUT… here we are. I love what Arnold has done on the work tab. You have a nice combination of 5/8ths and 1/2m drills all of them over this surface today. I think its really important to note that on the work Sep28, this filly worked from the gate and shot out like a rocket. I would not be surprised if this one broke at or on the lead, it’ll be up to if shes classy enough to pass/hold off the competition in the lane. NOTE: We made this point earlier but needs to reiterated, Gaff cant do anything wrong right now at KEE. He’s riding so well on all types of runners. I like the fact that he jumps on today.
#11 Turtle Trax 9/2 : If you watch the replay of debut this one had all sorts of trouble and still ran on late to finish 5th beaten 4 ¼ lengths. This filly was well bet in debut and I think showed all the ability in that effort to justify all the money this one took. She has a lot of talent and being parked outside, if Lep can avoid the catastrophic check, there is no reason why she cant run huge today and snag the money. NOTE: Seems to be a common theme with the runners in this race but this runner is working extremely well. It’s obvious that she came out of debut with stuff left in the tank. She’s caught the eye of everybody in the morning again, like she did prior to debut. Expect her to get crushed on the board again.
Race 7 – ALW 75k N2X going 5.5f on the turf
#1 No Bang No Boom 5/1 : I’m going to single the Ward here on all multi race tickets. I can mark this one as my BEST BET OF THE DAY! People will be concerned with the layoff and perhaps so, but the works over the BEL/KEE turf courses say the layoff means nothing. The work on 9/29 5f :59 and change puts all of that to rest. I loved how shipping from BEL to KEE, Ward was able to get a work in over the track. As far as the PP’s go, this one beat AOC80’s at BEL going 6f in wire to wire fashion. The small cut back isn’t a big deal whatsoever and being parked on the rail. Expect JohnnyV, who has ridden this one to victory previously, to gun it from the start and take them around on the lead and score.
Race 8 – Clm 50k going 6f on the dirt
#7 Cautious Giant 6/1 : With all the early foot in this race, I wanted to take the runner(s) who will be leading that next flight and that’s what we have here with this one. This one was claimed 2 races back and was moved to the Maker barn. Last time out was just a prep, nothing else. I draw a line through that race and I don’t even think twice about it. Outside of that, speed figures fit, if not tower above the rest of the field. Again, will get the pace to run at and will be sitting 2-3 off of them early. Maker lures Ortiz to ride again. There is a lot to like here and we could get a nice price as there are many different directions you can go. NOTE: A nice 5f drill on 10/5, 2nd off the layoff, everything adds up.
#5 Battle Station 10/1 : A horse that I believe has shown better efforts on the main track as opposed to the turf. In Feb 2018, this runner won a state bred stakes race at AQU over the main track going 6f which just happens to be todays distance. You can see from the running lines that this one has the ability to go to the lead but also sit off the pace and still have success. JohnnyV will have to be tactical here to make sure he doesn’t get in a speed duel with the slew of horses that look like they’ll go to the lead. If he can do that, I believe this horse is more than classy enough to beat this open 50k level in hand. NOTE: This runner is coming off a significant layoff but the works in prep for this event is plentiful and quick. Ward should have this one ready to roll.
#8 Futile 15/1 : For the longshot play in this race, we landed here. I’m not sure I understand this ML. 15/1 seems quite excessive and I’d be surprised if we got that today. If perhaps this one is 15/1 or MORE, I’m moving this one to the top on exotic tickets. The effort off the significant layoff for unknown trainer was stellar. Sure, this runner finished 3rd, beaten 3 ½ lengths last time out against similar but the 88 speed figure was just a point shy of the effort prior to layoff in a stakes race. One would assume that second off the layoff, an improve is in store here. Connections weren’t shy bringing this one back in two weeks. Horse looks live.
Race 9 – Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes G1 500k going 1 1/8m on the turf
#3 Cambier Parc 8/5 : This is a really, really good and deep field. The biggest issue that all the other horses have is that they have to face one of the best 3yo fillies on the grass there is. There is no question that the 1 ¼ m of the Belmont Oaks is just to far. The 1 1/8 is right in the wheelhouse for this runner. Training well in the AM, and oh by the way, did I mention that this one is trained by the one and only Chad Brown? Yeah, that too. 8/5 will turn into 3/5 as they break the gate today but she will have to falter and somebody will have to run a top to take her down.
#5 Castle Lady 7/2 : With the dampness of the grass with some overnight rain, this will play in the hands of a shipper who’s used to damp, deep turf courses. This runner is a G1 winner, ran a fair 5th in the Coronation at Ascot but had tons of trouble in that race. Gets Lasix for the first time which could boost the ability of this filly. If perhaps Cambier Parc has an off day, I think this is the only runner that could run her down here.
Race 10 – MSW71k going 6f on the dirt
#12 Newellton 10/1 : I’m going to take a shot here with this outside runner. We will know if we have a chance after they break. If this one breaks well and is near the lead, we have a shot, if not, this filly will finish mid pack, beaten a bundle of lengths. Walsh is 22% with horses 3rd off the layoff, 13% when adding blinks for the first time and gets a jockey in Graham who is aggressive and could put this one in a nice position early. A nice 4f :49.1 drill on 9/29 in prep for this race here is worth noting. I also like how Walsh found a spot where this one could get back to the 6f distance where this one has done her best running. Has a top of 83 speed figure and we could easily see that today 3rd off the layoff.
#3 Olin’s Honor 6/1 : When watching replays I was looking for a reason as to why Motion pulls the blinkers off this one and I found it where in debut this filly is looking around and gave way (nearly spooked) when a horse ran up on her. I think the removal of blinkers will make her more game and she will have one of the best riders in the game on top of her in Jose Ortiz. Although it’s a single point, I like the improvement in speed figures from 74 to 75 from start one to start two. Combine that with Motion bringing this one back in 3 weeks as opposed to the 4-6 weeks of his normal runners, I think he knows he has something with this one. Of all the Motion runners today, it could be this one that turns out with the best performance today. Big effort today.
#4 Club Car 5/1 : I was quite impressed when digging into Colebrook off the layoff with maidens. He is 15% overall but 37% with maidens. Why is this? I think he actually waits and points horses to certain races/meets. The 89 speed figure just sticks out like a sore thumb in here. That just towers over this entire field. It was quite this one would bounce in start three and although that’s what it looks like, the numbers came back extremely slow for that entire day. If track is playing fair and this one returns back to that 89 type form, she’s gonna be awfully tough to beat today. NOTE: Look how fast she is working over this KEE surface. Perhaps this one just LOVES Keeneland and needed to get to this track to break her maiden.
I appreciate everyone involved for giving me the opportunity to share my thoughts. A big thank you to Mike for giving up his day and letting a random Joe like myself an opportunity to go 0 for 10. In the words of the legend himself, “FADE ME”. Best of luck everybody!