Keeneland always has solid cards to handicap, and I am going to go in depth on the first three races because I feel there is a lot of good info for handicappers in these races in particular.
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Race #1– 1st: (7) Woven has a high wet number, and rain is in the forecast. She also has solid breeding. By Bernardini and out of a grade 1 stakes winning Meadowlake mare, it does not get much better than that, Stidham trains, Godolphin owns. Jose Ortiz is at a 27% winning percentage, and maybe this filly’s odds will go up just a little bit so bettors can have a little profit.
2nd: (3) High Regard won last out at Churchill, and has the highest Beyer number in the race. She was a pricey filly at $160,000, so hopefully she turns out to be a successful one.
3rd: (5) Mucho Amor shows quite a bit of potential, and fourth in a grade 2 at Saratoga is pretty respectable. Wesley Ward trains, Jimenez is on board. The only challenge that appears for this filly, is the distance. She is quite used to fast fractions, and she will hopefully sit back a couple lengths to avoid tiring out.
Race #2– 1st: (2) Only Liquor has not only been popular in the claiming box, but 67 starts and 15 wins shows a warrior horse. I am a little concerned about his latest running pattern, but he has a good jockey and trainer so I am taking a risk here.
2nd: (3) Riff Raff comes in from Saratoga on a class drop. Eddie Kenneally is pretty hot right now with winning two out of three starts, but I have a concern. The horse wins for $40,000 and then gets dropped to $25,000. Hopefully he can rebound off of a disappointing effort last out.
3rd: (4) Grand Candy has won some nice races. He has earnings of $308,482, and seems to enjoy the Keeneland surface.
Race #3– 1st: (8) Midnight Tea Time has nice earnings of $78,600 for being a maiden. Joe Sharp and Luis Saez team up, and something to look at is this horse was beat last out by Winter Union who has come back and ran 2nd by a head in a nice allowance at Belmont.
2nd: (4) Fra Mauro just ran a good race at Kentucky Downs and I am liking the odds at 10-1. It isn’t too often Brad Cox has morning line odds of 10-1, so maybe there is some value here. Can’t complain about Florent Geroux aboard either.
3rd: (3) Love Sick Kitten has hit the board a couple of times and I think he has a decent shot of hitting the board here, Mike Maker trains, Tyler Gaffalione aboard.
Race #4– 1st: (2) South of France is trained by Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez aboard. By Quality Road, this filly did not seem to like the turf, and if you toss out the turf race, you have a nice maiden here.
2nd: (8) Amandrea not only has a good jockey and trainer, but a hot sire and a decent mare. Again, another 10-1 horse here that is worth a show bet. Decent works, owned by Zayat Stables.
3rd: (9) Stealing Sunshine came up for third last out, Cox trains. I am fairly confident this one will hit the board.
Race #5– 1st: With (7) Civil Union, it is tough to beat Jose Ortiz and Chad Brown, especially on the turf. Hoping this race doesn’t get rained off. Really nice win last out at Saratoga.
2nd: (5) Flat Meadow is fairly consistent. James Graham is the jockey, Andrew McKeever trains, and this filly has already won one on the turf, so why not give her a shot at 5-1?
3rd: (4) Dancing All Night started her career at the age of four which is slightly unusual, but she has made up for it with a win, and four second place finishes. John Velazquez has the call.
Race #6– 1st: (6) Noble Commander is on his way to earning back his hefty purchase price in just three races, and at this rate, it will be paid off in no time. Mark Casse and Julian Leperoux team up for this one, hoping to get back to his winning pattern.
2nd: (9) Honorable Treasure is also a nice colt, and if you look back to last fall, it makes sense why his connections chose to run him in a grade 1. I really think this one will run big.
3rd: (12) Smart Remark has ran some nice races, and a little bit of a price at 8-1, complete steal of a deal as a $4,000 purchase, even ran in a grade 2 last year.
Race #7– 1st: (6) Pahket just won at Belmont, and Todd Pletcher always has a nice Keeneland meet, hoping she will take a liking to the surface, she hasn’t even had a workout on the track yet.
2nd: (3) Speedy Solution just won a maiden special weight at Saratoga, pretty tough to top that. The Ramsey’s send out this homebred hoping to secure a grade 2 placing or win.
3rd: (4) Concrete Rose also comes off of a Saratoga win, a good Beyer number and a high wet number could work in her favor.
Race #8– Closing out the card, let’s try (2) House of Commons for 1st. This horse will appreciate the class drop, and recent changes have been made. A new trainer from two races back, and a jockey switch could be a good thing…
2nd: (3) Zip Van Winkle is fresh coming off a layoff, never raced at Keeneland before but his works are decent, also on a class drop from $30,000 to $20,000.
3rd: (7) Teletap is a homebred for Winchell Place Thoroughbreds, by Tapit, trained by Steve Assmusen. I will say, this horse is tough to like for anything better than third based on recent efforts but you never know.