It’s already closing week at Keeneland. This looks like a pretty good Wednesday card on tap. Hoping for fast and firm conditions.
Race 1
#3 Strut the Ring
Three horses in here are coming out of a common race back on April 7th. This guy won that race, and I’m picking him on top here again. This 7YO is in good form, and he possesses a little more tactical speed than his main rivals in here. Speed has been doing well at Keeneland this meet. I’ll think he’ll be sitting 2nd or 3rd early on, and should get a jump on the closers coming from behind. James Graham has ridden him to two solid performances his last two races, and he’s back aboard today.
#7 Peekacho
He finished just a half length behind my top pick last time out. He had some trouble early on in that race, so without that today, he may be sitting a little closer in the early going. Track conditions could be important for this guy. Three of his four lifetime wins are on synthetic, and his only other win was in the slop. He’s zero for six on a fast main track. So if the conditions come up sloppy again, maybe boost this guy up a little bit. This mile and an eighth distance can be tricky for horses of this lower caliber, but I don’t see it being an issue for him. He has a win at the distance, and seems to be one that will just keep grinding away.
Race 2
#6 Vanilla Cat
This doesn’t look to be a super tough allowance race, so I’m taking a shot with this filly. She’s been off since November, and she’s been working steady at Payson Park in Florida in preparation for this start. She ran well here at Keeneland going a distance of ground last fall, at odds of 28-1. As like most others in here, she doesn’t have any early speed, so she’ll just look to make one run from the back. James Graham is familiar with the horse, and he’s in the saddle today.
#5 Cured by Kitten
I’m not in love with her last race, but like I mentioned above, this doesn’t look like a very tough field. She is bred to love the distance, and running long on the grass is a specialty of trainer Mike Maker’s. Her lone career win was here at Keeneland, so she likes the course. Jose Ortiz gets aboard for the first time, and we’ll see if they can grind their way to the front in the stretch.
#2 Dynabee
I picked her in her last race, and that race was kind of a head scratcher for me. Trainer Jack Sisterson is adding blinkers for this race today. Her race two back was a really good effort at the Fair Grounds. She was beaten less than 2 lengths by Limari. That horse came back to win here nicely last weekend. This girl is another one that shouldn’t mind today’s mile and a half distance. Her breeding screams for this. Adam Beschizza back in the saddle.
Race 3
#2 Ms Headley
As has been mentioned numerous times before, this is a 2YO race at Keeneland in the spring. Therefore, Wesley Ward is hard to ignore. He’s got two in here, this might be less fancied of the two, but I’m really interested to see how offspring of The Big Beast run. I really liked him as a racehorse. Drawing the rail isn’t ideal, but Ward horses usually break very sharp, so hopefully the post isn’t an issue. John Velazquez rides.
#11 Anna’s Fast
The other Ward runner in here. They paid $470,000 for this daughter of Fast Anna. As I mentioned for the horse above, I’d expect a quick start and a forward position. Tyler Gafflione rides this one.
#8 Topless
Steve Asmussen sends out this youngster. This daughter of Successful Appeal is an Iowa bred, you don’t see that everyday. I do like the fact that she’s got a few 4F works on the tab. Asmussen is winless at the meet, could this be the spot where he gets on the board? Florent Geroux will be aboard.
Race 4
#2 Maid in the Mist
This filly is making her first start as a 3YO. She’s been off since October, but trainer Brenden Walsh is a respectable 13% off the layoff. Plus, he is have a fantastic meet, winning at 26%. She looks as if she’ll be able to get a forward position in this race, which I think will be an advantage. She has a couple of sharp works on the turf last month, so I’ll think she’ll be primed to run. Tyler Gafflione rides, he and Walsh win at 26% when they team up.
#5 Strikingly Lovely
This daughter of Smart Strike is making career start number 2. Her debut last month at the Fair Grounds was an eventful one. With a cleaner trip, I would expect this Sam-Som Farm homebred to run a little better. Today’s distance should also help her out. One mile will suit her better than 5.5F did that day. She’s 12-1 on the ML, at that price I definitely think she’d be worthing using, at least underneath. Neil Howard trains, Brian Hernandez Jr rides.
#9 Miss Leah Angel
Tom Morley sends out this daughter of Dark Angel. Her two most recent races, both at today’s one mile distance, were not too bad. Two back, she was toward the rear and made a decent run to finish second. And last time out she went straight to the lead, probably went a little quicker than she actually needed to, and because of that faded to finish forth. But she was only beaten about 2 lengths. If she can get a trip somewhere in between those two, I think she has a good chance today. John Velazquez will get on her for the first time.
Race 5
#3 Mug Shot Man
This Louisiana bred will be making his first start outside of that state in his career. He’s making lifetime start number ten here today. He has developed a little habit of settling for minor awards, five seconds and two thirds. However, he does put himself in the mix. He’s cutting back in distance today, and trainer Lee Thomas is about 24% with that move. Plus, this guy’s lone career win was at today’s 6F distance. Shaun Bridgmohan takes the call.
#5 British Humor
I’m willing to draw a line through his last race. It was his first start in 10 months, and he had a brutal beginning, losing pretty much all chance right at the start. He has many races in his past performances that would be good enough to win this race. He is the most experienced runner in the field, making career start number 14 today. He does only have that one win so far, but many of his races have been against much tougher competition. If he brings his A race today, he’ll have a say in the outcome. James Graham has ridden him numerous times, and he’s on today.
Race 6
#2 Norma’s Joy
6-1 on the ML. I’m hoping she drifts up a little bit. This is difficult race for me. She’s making her first start of the year, and she’ll have to go against the trend of her trainer; Roger Attfield is zero for his last thirty with horses off the 2-6 month layoff. I do really like her turf works in Florida last month. Being by Kitten’s Joy she’s bred to route on the grass, and I think she could be forwardly placed in this race. I don’t see hardly any speed on paper, so she might have a tactical advantage. Johnny V will ride this Robert Evans homebred.
#6 Amandrea
On paper, this Zayat Stables filly definitely looks like the one to beat. She’s coming out of the strongest races, and last time she was only beaten 2 lengths in a small stakes race in Louisiana. She’s back in with maidens today. Mike Maker has had a fairly quiet Keeneland meet, but routing on the turf is one of his strengths. Jose Ortiz will be up.
#12 Temple City Terror
If it wasn’t for the outside post, I’d really consider putting this girl on top. She’s run three decent races so far. But she hasn’t shown much early speed so far, so she could end up getting hung wide in this race. She’s finished quite strongly recently, so even with the tough post, I could see her getting a piece of this today. Adam Beschizza in the saddle.
Race 7
#1 Galindo
This colt has been off since mid January. Trainer Paul McGee is a very respectable 21% with this type of layoff. I think this race kind of sets up for him. He looks to be the best closer in here, and he draws inside, so maybe he can save some ground in the early going. He’s faced some decent runners before, including Tax (prospective Ky Derby runner). He’s finished in the money in all four lifetime starts at today’s distance. Gabriel Saez rides.
#2 Passion Play
The first thing that jumps out with this guy is the workouts. He’s got three straight bullet drills leading up to this. He also comes out of some pretty strong races at Oaklawn over the winter. Trainer Dallas Stewart is having a successful meet, so I think this horse is ready to fire. He’s drawn well, and has shown a little pace before, so I think he can get a good position into the first turn. Corey Lanerie will be the pilot.
#6 Sandville
Second race of the meet for this gelding. His two most recent races were sprints, which I think sets him up well for today’s mile and a sixteenth. Also, Ken McPeek is near 30% going sprint to route. He’s run well at this distance before. Joel Rosario will be aboard.
Race 8
#4 Fred’stwirlincandy
Another race that looks wide open to me. I don’t love 9-2 on the ML for this guy, but I do think he’s got a good chance. He has just one win from 12 lifetime starts, which I also don’t love. But, he does have some things I do like. This is a distance that he likes, and he also ran a nice race here at Keeneland last fall. Looking at the pace for this race, I think he’ll be in the first flight, which I also think will be advantageous. Brian Hernandez is familiar with the horse, and has guided him to some of his best efforts.
#1A Vegas Kitten
I’m liking the second off the layoff angle here with this one. He ran some solid races last year as a 3YO, so I’m hoping he can round back into that form. He was only beaten about three lengths last time in a field of 12. Joel Rosario gets on for the first time, and I think he’ll fit this closer’s style. Joel has been on fire this meet.
#9 St Denman
An impressive maiden winner last time out at Gulfstream. That race did set up pretty well for him, considering there was a pretty hot tempo early on. But, he did also run well last year in races with slower paces. So he’s proven to be versatile. He’s got a hot trainer and a hot jockey on his side, so he’s definitely a major player today. However, not sure I’d want to take that 9-5 on the ML.