This is a very nice weekday card. Some competitive maiden races, and a nice graded stakes race.
Good luck to all!
Race 1
#6 Stuart Hall
Hoping the tenth time is the charm for this 0-9 maiden. Tried turf last time, didn’t see an improvement, and now they have gelded him. They are going back to the dirt here, and dropping down to this $50,000 level for the first time. He has lacked speed in the past, I’m hoping that maybe being a first time gelding will have his mind on business a little earlier in the race. He is the best closet in here, but he will need some pace to run at. He has also hit the board in 4 out of 5 career starts at this mile and sixteenth distance.
#4 Believeinholidays
This 4 year old gelding is also dropping down to this $50,000 level for the first time. They are reapplying blinkers to this son of Harlan’s Holiday. 2 starts back he had a respectable effort on the dirt going today’s distance. This guy is a little tough to figure out. He either runs quite well, or absolutely awful. So I’m hoping today is going to be one of the times that he shows up with a good effort. Robby Albarado gets aboard for the first time, so hopefully he has the magic touch.
#2 Royal Edition
He looks to be one of the pace factors in here, and he draws a good inside post. I think his best chance will be to get the lead and see how far he can take them. He has been at the maiden claiming level for his past five starts, so that why I don’t like him on top today. I prefer the class droppers. But I do think his tactical speed advantage could allow him to hang around and get a piece of it today. He does have two 3rd place finishes at today’s distance.
Race 2
#6 Match Play
This 4 year old was transferred to the barn of Chris Hartman back in July, and since then this guy has run two very solid races. Comes in off a nice win at Churchill. Draws the outside post in this field of seven, but I think that will be alright for him because he posses good early speed. The two horses directly to his inside haven’t shown his kind of speed, so I think he can get a good forward stalking position. Albarado rode him last time, and he his back on today, so I like the familiarity.
#4 Hubbadahhubbadaboom
First of all, wow, what a name. Second of all, I think this horse has a good chance today. Comes in off a couple month freshening, and has a couple of bullet works on the tab. I expect him to show good early speed. Jockey Corey Lanerie is off to a slow at the meeting, but I don’t expect that to continue for very long. He has good numbers (22%) when riding for Kenneally. Also, this $20,000 level is an all time low for this horse, so I’m expecting a good effort.
#5 Awesome Fu
They took the blinkers off 2 starts back, and that seems to have helped. That race 2 starts ago was a very sharp effort beating $15,000 claimers. I can excuse his last race at Churchill, because I think the one mile distance was just too far for him. So I think this cutback to 6F will help him out. Trainer Wesley Hawley has limited starters on the year, but still wins at a 20% clip.
Race 3
#4 Princess Drossie
This 5 year old mare is coming into this race off an eight month layoff, so that is a slight concern. However, if she is able to run to the form she showed last year, I think she will be very tough in here. Another thing I like is that she has a win at Keeneland already on her resume. No one else in this field can say that. She is dropping way down in class, but that doesn’t bother me as much when it happens at a place like Keeneland because the connections tend to be aggressive just to try to get to the winners circle.
#7 Gingermore
First off the claim here for trainer Chris Hartman. He is 22% with that move. This mare is coming out of a $5,000 claimer at Churchill, so she is stepping up in class for this race. Hartman has success when repeating with claiming types, hitting at almost 30%. She made a big late move in that race, although at times she has shown the ability to lay closer, so I’m hoping she is able to do that today.
#6 Majestic Kindness
This mare is shipping in from New York for trainer Nick Zito. 3 of her last 4 starts have been fairly solid. The only one that wasn’t was at the distance of a mile and an eighth. So this mile and a sixteenth distance today should be a little more to her liking. She’s another that would probably benefit from some pace up front. She’s caught a sloppy track her last three starts, but I think she can be similarly effective on a fast main track as well.
Race 4
#3 Mucho Mas
2nd career start for this 2YO filly. Ran a very respectable 3rd in debut. Drew the rail that day, started a little slow, and was able to pass some horses in the stretch. Draws a little better post position today, and maybe she’ll break a little sharper. That race she comes out of Churchill has already proved to be a productive one. The runner up (Istan Council) that day came back to crush maidens here at Keeneland last Friday. The extra added furlong of today’s race might also benefit her, more distance could be better for this daughter of a Classic winner.
#8 Gold Credit
I’m giving this first time starter a look in here. She’s by the speedy Goldencents, whose offspring have won about 18% of their debuts. She’s shows a very nice work tab coming into this one, many of those works coming right here at Keeneland. Trainer Correas hits about 14% with his first timers, and about 16% with his 2YOs. He calls on Joe Bravo to ride here, this combo is an impressive 4 for 9 over the past year.
#6 Philanthropic
This second time starter looks very well meant in this spot. She ran a very good second in her debut at Ellis Park, coming from the back of the pack to finish strong. I’m sure she got a good education that day. The winner that day came back to beat allowance foes here at Keeneland, so that was a productive race. She also shows some strong recent works. And Asmussen gets Jose Ortiz to ride.
Race 5
#5 Laser Loop
This looks like a very competitive field here. I’m going to put this colt on top. He hasn’t raced since April, so the layoff is a bit of a concern. However, he comes out of a strong maiden race here last spring. And that was his first start on the dirt, and his first start with blinkers. He showed much more ability that day then he did in his debut on the turf. He has a steady work tab coming into this race, and trainer Rusty Arnold is having a nice year. He gets one of his main riders, Brian Hernandez, and those guys are close to 20% when they team up.
#6 Enqueteur
This homebred is making his debut here today for trainer Graham Motion. He has a very good sprint pedigree, being by 2 time BC Sprint winner Midnight Lute, and out of an Indian Charlie mare. He has been training at Fairhill up until his most recent work. He came to Keeneland for that work, and wow, 46 3/5 out of the gate. That work jumps off the page. Especially for Motion, who doesn’t tend to work his horses particularly fast, so that tells me this horse is ready and has some ability. Jose Ortiz in the irons.
#10 Commanding Candy
I’m going to throw this guy in at a bit of price. He debuted last time at Indiana going 5F on the turf. Finished with some interest and had to check in the stretch. He stretches out to 6.5F for this race, and switches to the dirt. Shows a few nice works since his debut. I’m hoping he can navigate some sort of trip from the outside post, which has not been kind at Keeneland lately. I’m thinking he will lay toward the back, and make one run and possibly pick up some pieces.
Race 6
#6 Cherry Lodge
I actually surprised myself a little bit by making this filly my top pick. The once very highly regarded Cherry Lodge makes her return off an almost 10 month layoff. And with only 7 starts under her belt, she is actually the least experienced runner in this field. All that being said, I do think she still has some talent. Her turf efforts are fairly solid. That race she comes out of last January at Gulfstream Park was a nice stakes race. And the 2 horses that beat her, Girls Know Best & Just Talkin, are nice horses so I think that form still holds. Pletcher is off to a scorching start at the meet, and he gets Jose Ortiz to ride. I expect a good showing for her.
#10 Pastime
I think this 4YO is improving and finding her best form. Her last race at Kentucky Downs she was steadied in the turn, and still was able to get up for third. Her race before that was a good second at Ellis to a next out winner. She is however only 1 for 11 going this distance on the turf. But she gets Edgar Morales to ride, and he’s at hot as anybody at Keeneland right now. He’s also ridden her for her last two races, so I like the familiarity. She does prefer to come from behind, so she’ll need some pace and some racing luck.
#7 Fairlyland
This girl seems to be one of the pace factors, and could potentially be the speed of the speed. She is cutting back from 6.5 to 5.5F for this one, and being forwardly placed could be beneficial. It’s hard it ignore these connections. Albin Jimenez for Wesley Ward. Together they hit at almost 25%, and both of them excel when it comes to turf sprints. This is her 3rd start off a six month layoff, so her fitness should be rounding into top form.
Race 7
#7 Eres Tu
I’m going to go with this first time starter on top here. She debuts for trainer Steve Asmussen who is about 17% with firsters. The two most recent works look very sharp over this Keeneland surface. There are some stakes winners in the family, and also a sibling that won at first asking. Offspring of Malibu Moon win at about 15%, and although it can be difficult to debut at 7F, I think she is bred well for this distance.
#5 Winandyourin Gin
This daughter of Into Mischief has been freshened up for a couple months. Debuted back in July at the Spa, and ran fairly well to finish 3rd. In her second career start she broke from the rail and didn’t do much running. Returns here with a nice set of six workouts, including one that earned a bullet, fastest of 113 back on Sept. 21. She has been at Keeneland for about a month, so I think the plan as always been to take a little break and return in spot like this. Jockey Bridgmohan is off to a slow start at the meet, but he’s 20% on the year, so more than capable.
#8 Patsy
This second time starter is exiting a fairly quick heat at Churchill Downs. Finished 3rd in a field of 9 that day. She is from the Ignacio Correas barn, and as I mentioned earlier in the card, he is sneaky good with his 2YOs. He’s about 16%, and has a very nice $3.35 ROI. She broke a little sideways in her debut. So I’m hoping for a cleaner break today. I do wonder if maybe she ultimately will want more ground than 7F, but I do think she is talented enough to get a piece of this.
Race 8
#5 Arklow
I know he will probably be a short priced favorite, I think he’ll be tough to beat here. He is coming out of the G3 Kentucky Turf Cup in which he beat a couple of today’s main rivals. He has shown good versatility, coming from the back, and also being able to lay close to the pace. I’m hoping for more of a stalking trip today, as it looks like there is very little speed in this race. I think this 4YO is entering his prime. He also has shown he likes this Keeneland turf course, having broken his maiden here last year.
#9 Zulu Alpha
I have no idea if he is good enough to beat these types, but I do think he has a pace advantage. He could find himself on the lead and we’ll see how far he can take them. He’s first off the claim for John Ortiz (18%). Ortiz is having a nice meet. No wins, but 3 seconds and 3 thirds. This horse comes off his most impressive race to date, a 9 length score over high level allowance horses at Churchill. If you look all the way back to March of this year, this guy was less than a length behind Arklow that day. So on his best day, he might have a shot.
#11 Can’thelpbelieving
I’m going to give a look to this 10-1 shot. His most recent race was off a 13 month layoff, and I think he ran pretty respectable, all things considered. Now he is seven years old, so we’ll see if he can return to the form he showed a year ago. If he can, he definitely has the speed figures to show that he fits with a group like this. I also don’t think distance will be an issue as he has run multiple good races going a mile and three eighths, which is just a tick shorter than this. It’s Bravo riding for Motion, and they are close to 30% together (5-17).
Race 9
#5 Unmatchable
I’m going to put this first time starter on top. This 3YO colt by prolific sire Uncle Mo is being sent out by the Steve Asmussen barn. He shows a couple strong recent works here at Keeneland, including a bullet from the gate. I’m hoping he can break well from the gate and get a good forward position.
#7 Franknjmme
This guy is making his second start off a 6 month layoff. He returned to the races at Churchill last month, finishing a tiring 3rd, but I think his fitness will be improved out of that effort. Jose Ortiz takes the call here, and I’m hoping for a clean break and good early position.
#10 Examiner
Trainer Ben Colebrook is making a number of changes for this gelding’s third race. He is switching from turf to dirt, adding blinkers, and also adding lasix. His pedigree suggests that he should handle the dirt just fine, and hopefully the blinkers will help him get himself into the race earlier. James Graham has had some success riding for this barn, hitting at about 15%.