Blog

Keeneland

October 11th, 2018

Picks listed in order of preference

She is taking a pretty significant drop in class for this race, going from a maiden $50,000 claimer down to this $15,000 level. I think that drop should be beneficial for her. They are also adding blinkers for this one, which trainer Bret Calhoun does at a success rate of 26%. So the combination of the class drop along with the blinkers added should allow her to show improved speed early on. This race is a 1/16th of a mile shorter than her last effort, which could help her be stronger at the finish.

She is another one of the class droppers in here. She’s been freshened up since her last race in August, and she shows a very sharp workout a few days ago. Trainer Rudy Brisset has a lot of success (30%) going sprint to route. This miss also gets reunited with Geroux who teamed up with her when she ran her best career race back in the summer. That race was also at a mile, just like this one. She showed good gate speed during her best effort that day, so I am expecting a good start from the gate since she is coming in fresh and has that good work that I mentioned earlier.

She is one of the few in here that are actually taking a slight step up in class. There are a few reasons why I think she could get a piece of this one today. First off, she has hit the board in 4 of her 6 dirt starts. Secondly, I like the fact that she showed the ability to pass horses in the stretch, which is not something that all horses can do at this level. She made a big move last time going from as far back as 7th and then 5th (11 lengths behind the leader) to get all the way up to 2nd. Another angle I like here is second time off the claim. Sometimes it takes a race for the new connections to learn about the horse. So I think they may have found something in her last race, and that warrants giving her a look in this one.

This girl has never run a bad race. She always shows up. Showed late interest in her last effort, which was her first race since last November. So I am expecting some improvement with that race now under her belt. Before the layoff last year she was showing steady improvement, so I think she can continue the upward trend. Her trainer Tim Glyshaw is off to a very good start this meet, so I like the fact that the barn is in good form. She is also cutting back from 7F to 6F, so her fitness level should be very good. And she also has experience over this surface, which could be beneficial.

She is by far the most experienced runner in the field; coming in with 24 lifetime starts. Her best weapon is her speed. Combine that with her advantageous outside post, and I think she will get a very good trip in here. Another benefit that her experience gives her is that she is used to a battle. She was in over her head in the last race, which was a stakes race at Churchill. I think this race fits her better, and that speed could be a more deadly weapon.

She comes into this one fresh, having not raced since August at Saratoga. When at her best, she has shown good tactical speed. I see a stalk and pounce type of trip for her in this one. She shows a good 3F work a few days ago for a trainer that is 20% with this type of layoff. She gets Beschizza as her pilot for this one, and he hits at a 25% clip for this barn over the past year.

Taking a drop in class here, coming out of a $32,000 claimer in which he was only beaten 3 lengths. One of a few in here that has shown good tactical speed, and he has also shown some versatility. Gets Edgar Morales to ride here, and he already has a couple wins at the meet, so I see that has a positive. Should get a ground saving trip from post 3, which could prove to be extremely helpful considering this race is run at a mile and a sixteenth, which at Keeneland means a shorter run to the finish line once they turn into the stretch. So saving ground is key. On his best day he has shown the most ability of anyone in this field. If he brings his A effort, I think he could be tough to beat.

Is coming in off a sharp 5 length score in the slop. In fact, this guy is 3 for 3 over a wet surface. If the track comes up less than ideal for this race, he is worth an extra look on the win end. He has 3 lifetime wins at today’s distance, and does have a couple efforts here at Keeneland. Has tactical speed, so that should allow him to put himself into the race and get a good position. These are lesser known connections, but don’t let that fool you. Trainer Eric Reed is 16% on the year. And jockey McKee is 20%. So both very capable of getting a horse into the winners circle.

A little bit of an outsider here, with most of his races coming on the turf. But I think he has some sneaky good dirt form as well. You have to go back to May to find his most recent dirt efforts, but those were two solid 2nd place finishes. They were also at this $16,000 level, and were also at a route of ground. So distance is no concern. And as I mentioned in an earlier race, 2nd off the claim is an angle I like to play. That also fits here. And this is a high percentage trainer, who really excels going turf to dirt (34% win). Definitely worth throwing this horse into exotic plays, especially if he goes off near his 10-1 morning line.

Makes just her 2nd lifetime start here, but flashed good potential in her first try. Showed a good late, closing kick behind fairly easy fractions. The winner that day set the pace and kicked on for the wire to wire win, which to me makes this girl’s effort even more impressive. She was really the only one closing in that race, and did have to slightly alter course in the stretch. That race should have provided her with a good education, and I am expecting another step forward. Out of that race she has two really nice works. She gets Gaffalione for the ride today, and he is starting to really make a name for himself on the national level. He already has a Grade One win at this meet.

This miss likes to be forwardly placed, and his actually cutting back in distance for this race. Her last effort was only a neck loss going a mile and five sixteenths at Kentucky Downs. That was also just her first start since June, and also her first start in the Joe Sharp barn. One very slight concern for me would be that she has finished second in all three of her turf starts. While yes it is good that she’s consistent, it makes me wonder if she is still a “pack” runner and doesn’t quite have that killer instinct yet. That’s why I like her underneath in this one.

Taking a bit of a shot with this one. 12-1 on the morning line is very good value. She is coming out of a high level claiming race into this maiden special weight, but I think her debut was strong enough that she deserves a look. She tugged on the rider during her debut, but she adds lasix for this race, which could potentially relax her (could do the opposite also), so looking at her during the post parade could be helpful to see how she is behaving. She has a strong workout back on Sept 17th, which may have led the connections to try this spot instead of another maiden claimer. Lastly, the other huge reason I give her a look in this race is that Flavien Prat is listed to ride. He is an exceptional turf rider, and great at judging pace, which is critical in turf route races.

Overall, this looks like a fairly weak field. So I’m putting Bill’s Mafia on top for a couple of reasons. First is that he showed good ability in his debut at Woodbine back in August. Another reason I like this horse is that this is his first start for trainer Eddie Kenneally. He is 30% with horses first time in his barn. He is also off to a nice start at the meeting, and has historically had good success at Keeneland in the past. He tabs top jock Jose Ortiz for the ride, which can’t hurt. I am expecting good gate speed, and a possible wire to wire victory here in this 6F event.

As I mentioned above, I don’t think this is a super strong race, so I’m throwing in a first time starter here. This isn’t a trainer that is overly successful with youngsters, or with first time starters. However, he gets Robby Albarado to ride, and he already has a couple wins here at the meet. The work on Oct 4th looks like an improvement from the others. This debut runner was purchased for just $25,000, so I think this maiden claimer is a good logical starting point. And he catches a field that hasn’t shown a whole lot yet.

Comes into this race off a decent run in a maiden special weight at Churchill. So the drop in class could prove to be enough to get him into the winners circle. He also gets off the rail this time, after drawing the rail in his last effort. Being stuck on the inside can sometimes be intimidating to a young horse. Shows a good gate work on the tab, so you might be able to expect a little more speed at the outset this time. He is also the only horse in this field that has shown the ability to pass horses (albeit only going from 9th to 6th). So that is also a plus. 

Taking a shot here in this non winners of two event. I like the cutback in distance from one mile to 7F. I also like this horse getting back to the dirt, where she has a win and a third in 3 career starts on the dirt. He also gets a good jockey in Victor Lebron who is winning at a 19% clip this year, and was aboard for this horses maiden breaking win 3 starts back. At 15-1 on the morning line, this horse is definitely worth some across the board action.

She is coming off her first start on the dirt last month at Churchill. She had a lot of trouble at the start, yet still overcame that to finish a good second going 6F. This race is a furlong further, and I think that could also help her chances. This is a little bit of a step up in class for her. But this barn wins 29% of its claiming races, and he goes to Shaun Bridgmohan, one of his main riders. He has been aboard for four of her six lifetime starts. I expect a good run from off the pace in this stamina testing race.

This is a little bit of a track condition play. If the conditions are less than fast, I give this filly a big chance. Her two wet track effort are very good, including her maiden breaking win which came right here at Keeneland this spring. Her form as tailed off a little the past couple months, but I don’t think this is the strongest field, so I’m giving her another chance to get a piece of this. She has a good 3F sharpening work here at the track a couple days, so I’m hoping that perked her up.

This runner does have the best speed figures in the race. It does concern me that she has four second place finishes in her 7 career starts. However, I do feel like this race sets up for her. She prefers to come from behind and will need some pace in front of her, but I think she will get that here. She’s coming off a second place finish at Kentucky Downs in which she was dead last in a field of 12 at the first two calls of the race, yet she still was able to get up for second. I think it is also worth noting the super quick 46.4 sec workout coming into this race. She could be sharp for this race.

She’s one of the more inexperienced runners in the field with just two starts under her belt. But I think that provides a chance for some upside as well. Both lifetime starts have been very good efforts, one on the dirt and one on the turf. Has shown good early foot, which I think will allow her to get good position going into the first turn. She has a bullet work on the tab since her last race. And her young trainer Norm Casse is off to a very nice start in his training career. So I give an extra look to anything he sends out.

Giving a look to this long shot to possibly hit the board. She is coming off an easy maiden win at Ellis Park. A couple reasons I like her in this spot are, first, that big effort was coming off a 9 month layoff. She was in for a claiming tag that day and she won extremely easy. I think it may have even surprised the connections, so today they are protecting her in this allowance condition. She has had some time off since that big effort (about 5 weeks) so I’m hoping that might eliminate a potential “bounce” factor. Her grandsire is the great Dynaformer, so long on the grass is what this girl wants to do. So I’m giving her an underneath chance in this one.

This guy is coming in off a nice 3rd place finish in the G3 Iroquois at Churchill. That was his first try on the dirt, and also his first run with blinkers. He made a nice middle move in that race, but flattened out a little at the end. He is shortening up to a mile here today, which might be more to his liking. These are also top notch connections that excel with 2 year olds, so he is definitely worth a look on the win end.

Does draw a tough post position for this one, but I still think they are some things to like about him. First, this is his first try on the dirt, and being by Afleet Alex I actually like his breeding more for this surface than for the turf. Combine that with Kenneally’s impressive 30% win rate when going turf to dirt, and I think that he is well meant in this spot. He has shown that the talent is there in his first two races, and he has a snappy 5F work over the Keeneland track last week. He looks ready.

I’m taking another shot with a price here. 12-1 on the morning line, but I see some things that I like. One, his last race was his first try on the dirt, and it was an impressive maiden claiming score at Saratoga. That effort was much better than his previous turf and poly track tries. Secondly, I love his breeding for finally getting to a route distance today. He is by Birdstone (upset winner of the 2004 Belmont) and he’s out of an AP Indy (winner of the 1992 Belmont) mare. So the longer the better for this youngster going forward.

Has shown a preference for the turf, having hit the board in 2 of 4 lifetime turf tries. He is making his third start off of a 6 month layoff, so I’m hoping he can round back into the form he showed a year ago. If he can do that, I think he has a great chance to win this one. His last turf try at Kentucky Downs proved to be a little too far, so getting back to today’s distance should be beneficial. He also has shown he doesn’t mind some give in the ground, and given the forecast, he could get that today.

Just like my top pick in this race, he does draw a tough post in here, but I still give him a look. He is exiting that same allowance race at Kentucky Downs that I mentioned above. The distance also seemed to be a little far for him, and that was only his first try on the lawn. Being by Blame, I definitely think this is the right surface for him. Leparoux has been aboard for 5 of the 6 career races, so he has some familiarity with the horse.

Here is another one exiting a race at Kentucky Downs. That seems to be a common theme with this race. However, that race at KD was restricted to 3YOs, so he will be facing older runners today. But he showed good ability at this level and condition 2 and 3 starts back. I think he’ll be able to sit a tactical trip. He gets Brian Hernandez back aboard who rode him to his lone career victory, and who is 4 for 10 when riding for this barn since the beginning of last year.

These lower level races can be tough to handicap. So I’m going to go with the horse in the best form. This guy is coming in off 3 straight wins. He is first off the claim for trainer Billy Gowan, and he gets Geroux in the saddle. He will need some pace in front of him, as he likes to come from behind. He has already beaten some of today’s rivals, so I’m hoping he can repeat those recent efforts.

Another one coming into this race in good form. He got a trainer switch back at the end of July, and since then has 2 solid efforts that would put him in the mix today. 2 starts ago he had a very easy 8 length score on the dirt at Ellis Park. And he followed that up with a good come from behind 3rd place try on the turf. Robby Albarado rode him that day and is back for today’s race. This trainer has limited starters on the year, but has a 21% win percentage in claiming races. Respect.

This gelding looks to be one the pace factors today. He is coming out of sprint races, so he should be forwardly placed in this route event. He also has had a little success at Keeneland, having finished in the money in 2 of his 4 tries here. While he hasn’t routed in over a year, he does have 3 third place finishes at today’s distance.