It looks like it is going to be a sloppy Sunday and turf races will most likely come off, so my handicapping is gone to reflect such. Let me tell you what with this weather uncertainty it made an already tough card even tougher! I will be out at the races so contact me if you are at Keeneland.
Race 1:
In this race we have three horses coming in fresh off their maiden. The most likely favorite is one of the three fresh off a maiden score, the 4 (Went With The Wind) The combo of Asmussen and Santana has struggled early in this meet and I think this one goes off a bad favorite. The 3 (Take Aletter Maria) had no chance last time versus much tougher than today, put a line through that one. A repeat of the race 2 back would make this one tough… but there is also a lot of speed signed on in here and his race 3 back showed the ability to rate although on turf. This horse in career debut also showed ability on the off trace. This horse is a real player here and will by top choice here. I also would like to mention the 5 (Mari Chuy) who is an Ohio bred in for the tag for the first time, career best was versus Ohio bred but this horses career best came over the off going and she is getting a 10 Lbs weight break. A lot of things to like for morning line longest shot.
Race 2:
No matter what surface this race is raced on, I want to give another shot to 3 (Reride). If this race is ran over the off track I think this one is a real threat. On the turf the outside horse 6(Sniper Kitten) is your most likely favorite. I think he is vulnerable here as he has not taken to the soft going which with the moisture the forecast, is likely. The horse I want in the race on the turf is the 4 (Bantu) if the price is right! Has shown ability to run a route of ground on the turf. Stretches back out to his preferred distance and runs second of the layoff.
Race 3:
This is a race I will be sitting out from a wagering stand point… The 5 (Weiland) has the sexiest class, winning the Kentucky Juvenile. The work tab is the best of his career and he has Lasix for the second time. But if you have a strong opinion else where do not hesitate, this race is a toss up.
Race 4: This is another tough handicapping race… I will give the edge to horses with some experience under their belt. My top choice will be the 8 ( First to dance ) adding Lasix may be all you need to win this race.
Race 5:
There is a lot going on here and a lot of it depends upon the surface. In all likelihood we will be off the turf so I want to look at a few 2 year olds that loom major players if they stay in for on off the turf event. The first is the daughter of Uncle Mo the 4 (Mo Wheels Up) the distance is not a question, the off track should not be, and this one has two works under her belt since the last, so she should be primed for a big effort. The other I am really interested in is the 3 (Accolady). Romans does not do his best work with firster, his horses generally run into racing shape. This is a homebred buyback and the Kitten’s Joys can run on just about anything and the first race was promising. I also think Pletcher has turn the page on his woes over the summer and comes in with another tough logical contender in the 11 (Cap De Creus). The horse has ran over the off going and is by Keeneland leading sire Tapit and Jose is aboard. In all reality I think this race is so dependent upon course condition I cannot give a strong opinion.
Race 6:
In this race you have an overwhelming morning line favorite in the 4 (Maybe Wicked) at 6 to 5, who looks to be the controlling and only speed threat so that is something to keep in mind depending on how the track is playing. The 5 (Go Lady Jay) is interesting being the only mare from this bunch with a win over the slop and most recent work being over the slop at Hawthorne. My top choice in this race is the 2 (Georgia’s Reward) with my favorite jock Ricardo Santana in the irons. This 3 year old is racing older and tougher, but the recent work tab is very promising and the price is right.
Race 7:
I am going to go ahead and pass on this race with the high probability of this one coming off the turf.
Race 8:
I want to start with the inside post the 1 (Mo’s Mojo) this horse broke his maiden over the slop over at Churchill last spring. The horse was off for over a year and needed his last race, I am not fond of the Jockey Trainer combination but they win together paying quality dividends when doing so. Before I take any short odds on the 2 ( Curate) I am going to make him prove to me his last race was legit… although the 6F and the slop play into his pedigree for this price $575k purchase this race is much tougher than that maiden score. I am interested in the 7 (Prolific) who had a nice wire to wire maiden score last September then crumbled in April here, the Lasix come on for this race and the work tab looks strong, Jose is in the irons… this is always promising. I also think the 5 (Share the Upside) is worth a look with the most recent bullet work over the track and the team of Santana and Asmussen. I am just dubious of who he was facing in the Indiana Grand races. This Leads me to my top choice in the 4 (Chaos Theory) This horse broke he maiden in impressive fashion from last to first, that’s a pretty mature move for a first start over the turf. They took this one over to the main track here and finished a closing 4th… they gave this $260k son of Curlin some time away and it looks to be a strong move he has worked gangbusters in the mornings and there for I am going to give him the top billing.
Race 9:
Man the racing office has put together once again a really tough race on paper. What makes this race even tough is many of the contenders in this race have ran well off the off track. I will again start form the inside post where we have a colt running back from just a week ago here… horses who are starting for the second time in these Keeneland meets have gone on to return dividends. This one is just over matched here. I really want to like the 4 (San elijo) here as his off track race was the best of his career I am just skeptical and I cannot put my finger on it. The 5 (Ego Trip) will be extremely over bet and I want nothing to do with this one! A $600k purchase dropping in for a tag at 3YO. This leads me to the two horses I want in this race the 7 and the 8. The 7 just broke his maiden in for a MCL tag but did it impressively so I expect a strong effort. My top choice is the 8 ( Lngtermrelationship ) who is coming in off a strong 3rd place finish 3 weeks ago and has ran his best career race over the slop and broke his maiden over the slop and the odds are right!