Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves crab rangoon, Eddie Mekka as The Big Ragoo, the Goo Goo Dolls, and Keeneland burgoo. His fiancée is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Fade me.
Race One: 1:05 post – MSW $71K 6 F 2YO Fillies
5-6-2-8
Today’s card kicks off with a MSW for baby girls. As if the juvenile puzzle wasn’t already difficult enough, nine of these fillies are making their first appearance in the starting gate. In races like this, I usually try to identify the best known runner and the most logical new shooter. Wesley Ward’s #2 Hai Bobbi is easily the most accomplished known runner and a repeat of her Saratoga debut on 6/21/19 is likely good enough to win today. She is not without questions, however. She caught a sloppy track in her debut and was tried on the sod in her second start on 8/28/19. Ward is known for having his 2YO runners ready to win early and this filly has yet to get her picture taken, though she was close in her first start. There are certainly reasons to play against her if you want to find value elsewhere. Mark Casse has $475K OBSMAR 2019 purchase #10 Specially entered for the first time and she can’t be ignored because of Casse’s gaudy 17% FTS success rate. Her last four works, two of them from the gate, fit the typical Casse pattern of his babies that win at first asking. Drawing the ten post might be too much to ask of this filly in her first start, but you certainly can’t complain about her pilot. Steve Asmussen’s #5 Hallajoori stumbled at the start of her last race on 8/30/19 at Saratoga and was used up way too early in an attempt to get in the race. She was the post time favorite in that race at the Spa and her four workouts since indicate she is race fit. I expect much improvement from her Trainer Arnaud Delacour wins at 21% with his FTS from a very large sample size. #8 Lucrezia looks like a horse that wants to in at first asking. As a daughter of Into Mischief, she has every right to be precocious and she has nine evenly-spaced workouts dating back to 8/3/19. Flavien Prat climbing aboard is a likely sign of strength as well. I don’t know that we can ignore Kellyn Gorder’s #6 Miss Imperfection. Her pedigree might not be as regal as some of these other fillies, but she has been exclusively training over the Keeneland surface since 7/6/19 and all three of her gate works have been impressive. In addition, the 9/14/19 bullet work looks especially eye-popping considering her age. I’m a little surprised to see Robby Albarado aboard for her debut, but that isn’t exactly a huge negative. The tote board should speak volumes about this one.
Race Two: 1:39 post – OC 80000b 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
6-5-8-4
It looks like quite a bit of speed signed on for this field of optional claimers, none of which are being offered for a tag. ML favorite #8 Gotham Gala will likely hook up with #5 Alberobello on the front end as she drew the far outside post and probably has no other choice to gun for the lead. Her effort at Thistledown on 8/17/19 was pretty quick yet she still didn’t get her picture taken that day. Todd Pletcher’s Alberobello has taken the lead in her last three starts and I expect her to do the same today making Gotham Gala’s task even more difficult. Both of these are plenty good enough to win, but I expect a pace meltdown. #6 Whoa Nellie should be the beneficiary of the heated pace and get the opportunity to close into the melting pace down the lane. Trainer Larry Jones has worked her four times at the Pea Patch since her win on 7/14/19 and the addition of Julien Leparoux should help the cause.
Race Three: 2:12 post – OC 62500n2x 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up
8-2-7-9
Everyone will recognize #7 Solomini in the PPs and he is certain to attract his fair share of pari-mutuel backing at the windows as well. He is switching barns and running for Steve Asmussen for the first time today after a career in the Bob Baffert barn. Asmussen keeps him at his recent level of competition and it should be noted that he is one of two horses that can’t be claimed today. It’s tough to gauge how he will perform today as Asmussen fires at 19% with runners in their first start in his barn. He can win, but I’ll stand against him today. Speaking of horses changing barns, #2 Kurilov is making his second start for Brad Cox after eight races with Chad Brown. He is also making his second start after a year layoff so he could improve off of that turf effort on 9/7/19. My main argument against Kurilov is that there doesn’t appear to be much early speed signed on to this race, so the race shape could work against his late turn of foot. Since I am taking a stand against the favorites, #8 Flight Time interests me the most of the longer-priced horses. Trainer Kenny McPeek ran him in a Kentucky Downs stakes on 9/5/19, which is surely a sign of confidence in his ability. He moves to the main track today in his third American start after an early career in Brazil. It’s the third start of this form cycle, the blinkers come off, and this is third dose of race day Lasix. His good 9/28/19 work out here at Keeneland may be a sign that he likes the footing and could be figuring things out here in the Bluegrass state.
Race Four: 2:46 post – MSW $71K 1 1/16 Mile 2YO
7-3-5-6
Full fields of twelve baby boys have signed on for this dirt route making this race a true puzzle. #7 Ghostlore probably deserves his co-favoritism on the ML after his 9/14/19 performance at Churchill Downs. I’m a bit concerned about his chances today as he didn’t receive much backing in that second place finish, though he did get caught in traffic a bit coming down the lane. Both AEs, #13 Lucky Curlin and #14 Elite Class, will be dangerous if they draw into the field. Mark Casse puts the blinkers on Lucky Curlin after a close third place finish as the post time favorite at Saratoga on 8/22/19 and his workouts have been improved. In addition, he showed that routing is no problem in that 1 1/8 effort at the Spa. #3 Portos finished fourth in the same Saratoga race as Lucky Curlin on 8/22/19. Pletcher wins at a 29% clip with his second-time runners and his pedigree is perfect for routing. I would have liked to see a Keeneland workout for Portos, but his last morning effort on 9/28/19 is pretty good for a 2YO.
Race Five: 3:20 post – OC 75000n2L 7 F 2YO
6-11-7-9
Another baby race puzzle awaits us in today’s fifth race, but at least we get a little more information on these baby boys. Stanley Hough’s #11 South Bend stole the win at the wire in his debut graduation on 9/14/19 at Churchill Downs under Julien Leparoux. He looked much the best that day and a step forward today is all it will take to keep this Sagamore Farm’s runner undefeated. Florent Geroux climbs back aboard #7 Peruvian Boy today after a failed trip to the Spa in the Saratoga Special and an Arlington Park stakes loss on 9/7/19. His appearances on the all-weather track are more a function of his geography than his pedigree, so his entry in a Keeneland dirt sprint isn’t unsurprising. His 9/29/19 Churchill workout was extremely good, but you should note that his 8/2/19 Keeneland workout was really good too. He’s a player today. #6 Discreet Tiger looks sneaky good in this spot for trainer McLean Robertson. This Canterbury shipper has improved in all three career races, he has gone off as the post time favorite all three races, and finally got his picture taken last time out on 9/13/19. He will have every opportunity to again gun for the lead and play “come catch me” today under new jockey Tyler Gaffalione.
Race Six: 3:54 post – Woodford Stakes GII $200K 5 1/2 F Turf 3YO&Up
3-9-6-2
It’s going to take a lot of running to defeat standout #3 Imprimis in this year’s rendition of the Woodford. Paco Lopez and trainer Joe Orseno are back to the scene of their 4/6/19 Shakertown victory and he looks ready to roll after his recent tune up in the Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs where he lacked running room. Any semblance of a cleaner trip should find him in the winner’s circle. #6 Smart Remark was run down by Totally Boss in the same race as Imprimis on 9/7/19 where he finished second at 70/1. A victory today would come as a surprise to me, but trainer Vickie Oliver has this one running in the right direction. #9 Leinster was caught wide in the Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint and compromised down the stretch. He had strung three consecutive wins together before losing on 9/7/19 and has every right to be the best candidate to upset Imprimis today.
Race Seven: 4:29 post – Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes GII $250K 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
8-6-1-3
I could only eliminate two horses in this year’s TCA as this field is full of worthy runners and the tote board will surely show that at post time. It won’t surprise me to see a pari-mutuel blanket of six points covering the top seven betting interests. Since that’s the case, I am going to give you the reasons I am against these evenly-matched horses rather than why I am for them. I am tossing #2 Razorback Lady as a Gulfstream Park shipper that has been facing weaker. #9 Pretty Greeley is being tossed on company lines alone as she’s just not good enough. #4 Danuska’s the Girl could surprise me, but I am against this shipper based on the fact that west coast speed doesn’t usually translate to Keeneland. #5 Dawn the Destroyer hasn’t recaptured her form of late last year and her running style isn’t likely to be flattered by today’s race shape. #7 Talk Veuve to Me was running in OCs before her stab in the Presque Isle Masters where she was no threat to the winner on the all-weather. #3 Spiced Perfection could win, but she hasn’t raced since Kentucky Derby Day when she got whipped in the Humana Distaff. I am against her based on the five month layoff. #1 Ours to Run has been off over seventy days and has been appearing in lesser stakes. Trainer Larry Jones looks to have her fit and this is jockey Gabriel Saez’s only mount of the day, so that causes me pause, but it looks like a tall task. #6 Mia Mischief ran incredibly bad in the Ballerina on 8/24/19; so bad that a line goes through that effort. Her Humana Distaff win illustrates her potential when firing her best effort, which is what it is going to take to run down #8 Chalon. My only negative against her is that she hasn’t won here at Keeneland in three tries, finishing second all three times. I also think she is better than her figures as she stumbled in her 9/2/19 victory at Parx.
Race Eight: 5:04 post – First Lady Stakes GI $400K 1 Mile Turf 3YO&Up F&M
11-6-3-4
On paper, the First Lady looks like a three horse race, so I’ll give you a couple of thoughts on each of the stars and I’ll give you a horse that is sure to be an overlay. #4 Uni went off as the post time favorite against Got Stormy and Raging Bull in the Four Star Dave on 8/10/19 and she had won her previous five races. She is likely a notch below the other two favorites, but her best effort is dangerous. #6 Vasilika ran so big in her last race, a GII stakes win on 8/31/19, that I fear she may bounce in her first trip east. Hollendorfer is asking a lot of this mare, but she is 16/17 ITM in the past two years. She is always so game down the stretch, I just have to wonder about her as she has yet to bury a foe like #11 Rushing Fall. Sister Charlie ate Rushing Fall’s lunch in the Diana on 7/13/19 leaving me to wonder if she will mentally rebound after that defeat. She looks to have improved a great deal as a 4YO, so there may be much more left in the tank as she matures. I personally think she is the second best filly in this division, only behind Sister Charlie. #3 Juliet Foxtrot was just nosed by Vasilika in the Mabee on 8/31/19. While I expect Vasilika to bounce off of that game effort because she was running in her second start of the form cycle, it might be possible that Juliet Foxtrot will improve. She usually has a little more time between starts, but Brad Cox looks to have her primed. If you think you can beat the top three, she will give you the odds you need to get paid. #14 Hanalei Moon. This Mike Maker filly controlled the One Dreamer at Kentucky Downs on 8/31/19 and has turned in two credible workouts since. It’ll take improvement of of her career-best race, but she just may have it in her.
Race Nine: 5:39 post – Breeders’ Futurity GI 1 1/16 Mile 2YO
6-8-1-10
Last year’s Breeders’ Futurity was won by Knicks Go at BALLOON prices and I believe we have an opportunity for the same today. Sure, three horses in this race look like they are putting it all together, but 2YOs are always improving and unpredictable. #1 Tap It to Win smoked a Saratoga MSW field on 8/24/19 and the second place runner of that race has already returned to win. He might get used a little bit too much on the rail, but he can win today. #8 Ajaaweed easily handled a Belmont MSW field on 9/11/19 and this son of Curlin has every right to be able to handle the stretch out today. #10 Gouverneur Morris was bumped at the start of his graduating debut, but he was man enough to crush that Saratoga field by nine on 9/2/19. Did he catch a flier over the sloppy Saratoga track that day or is he just that good? If Ghostlore runs well in today’s fourth race, we might want to take a good, long look at #6 Maxfield. This Godolphin runner debuted at one mile, a move I like, and closed like a freight train after giving the field eight lengths. Juvenile races are normally contentious on the front end and a pace melt down will help his running style. If the track looks fair, or even favoring closers, Maxfield may just surprise the major contenders.
Race Ten: 6:15 post – Shadwell Turf Mile GI $1000K 1 Mile Turf 3YO&Up
8-3-4-5
This Shadwell Mile looks crazy good and incredibly difficult to solve. You know you have a difficult race when the ML favorite is 5/1, but it does present us with an excellent wagering opportunity. #4 Valid Point may be a 3YO, but he is running his fourth race in a row at a mile on the turf. He is undefeated after three starts and has reason to improve as he matures. It would take a career best effort to win today, but we all know Chad Brown runners have it in them. Ignore at your own peril. #5 Bowies Hero has been holding his own against graded stakes competition for a while now and he has won six of his fourteen career races at this distance. He experienced a bit of trouble in the Del Mar Mile on 8/18/19, but he’s gritty enough to nose them out today. #3 Bandua ran an incredibly good race on 8/10/19 in the Arlington Mile but ran into Bricks and Mortar. He controlled the front end beautifully until he got passed down the lane. The cutback to a mile should help him today, but the presence of #14 Real Story should present some company on the front end. Will Bandua have enough to put Real Story away or will he get used? That’s the question. #13 Divisidero should get the perfect set up to make his big run, but he hasn’t quite been the same since turning six, and he’s now seven. He’s always game and always closes. Use him underneath. #8 Vintager ships over from Europe for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin Racing. He is 5/5 ITM at this distance with three wins and gets Lasix for the first time. He has won his last two races, the last being a German graded stake at a mile on the turf on 9/1/19.
Race Eleven: 6:50 post – MSW $71K 6 F 2YO Fillies
12-5-4-8
Today’s card closes with another overflow field of 2YO fillies ready to sprint over the main track. Nine of these baby girls are making their debut, so we once again have limited information to solve the last puzzle of the day. #4 Mom’s Pass has been sprinting on the turf in her first four races and trainer Steve Asmussen tries the dirt with her today. She has been a bit of a money-burner so far, but she did get second in her first two races. As the most experienced runner, she is the most likely winner of the horses that have already hit the track, but there are reasons to play against her. #12 Motu ran a pretty nondescript race at Churchill Downs on 9/16/19, but her 9/28/19 workout is just eye-popping. Trainer Kenny McPeek turns her back a couple of panels after that cracking workout and I believe it is all part of his master plan. This was no accident. Brad Cox looks to have FTS #5 Further Lane well prepared for her debut. Cox strikes at 20% with his FTS and this one has the look of a well-intentioned winner in the morning. Getting Castellano doesn’t hurt, either. Though trainer Ian Wilkes doesn’t normally have his runners win at first asking, #8 Street of Dreams looks like an exception to the rule. All of her works have been here at Keeneland, the two workouts from the gate scream talent, Street Sense babies are pretty precocious winning at 13% FTS, and jockey Chris Landeros only has one mount of the day: her.