Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
[A notice to all readers: Closing day for the 2018 Keeneland Fall Meet has arrived. I would like to personally thank The Daily Gallop and its staff for giving me the opportunity to share my handicapping with you all as it’s been a blast and I look forward to working with them in the very near future for the upcoming Breeders’ Cup. With regards to track conditions for Saturday, on Friday the main track was listed as sloppy with rain continuing to fall and all racing was taken off the turf for the day as well. As some more rain is expected overnight into Saturday morning conditions are not likely to really improve. Thus all selections for DIRT races will be given with a Muddy to Sloppy track in mind and all TURF selections will be provided with a Yielding to Soft course in mind. If conditions on the main track somehow improve to GOOD, then updated selections will be provided via Twitter if necessary. No selections will be provided should the TURF races be taken off of the grass. Finally, please feel free to use the provided picks for each race when making any exotic wagers in addition to your normal wagers. Best of luck today and let’s make some money!]
Race 1: Clm 20000n2L, 1 1/16 miles on the Dirt, For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 1:05 PM EDT.
Selections: 1-3-6
(1) Precious Luck: Daughter of Street Sense draws a prime rail position, won last race in gate to wire fashion, and has a win already this meet over the surface at Keeneland. If she can handle the step up in class and slight stretchout in distance, her pace setting running style could put her at a distinct advantage as the TimeForm Pace Projector has suggested a pace that should favor horses on or near the early lead and if she can draw clear of her rivals early on, she could wire the field once again. Dickey has been winning at a 22% rate with runners that broke their maidens in their last start.
(3) Estrela Candente: Lovell trainee drops to lowest claiming level thus far in her career, so she could appreciate the bit of class relief she receives today. Has hit the board in two of four attempts at the distance, including when posting a narrow second place effort last time out when she posted a 79 Bris Speed Rating (BSR), which is the highest last out speed figure amongst the field. Estrela Candente also finished in the exacta both times when racing over off going. Lovell currently winning at 17% rate in Claiming races over the past three years.
(6) Fashion Envy: Daughter of Orb has already failed once at this claiming level, so be wary. However, she has finished in the exacta both times when attempting eight and a half furlongs as well as when running over an off going. Over past three years, Sancal is 18% trainer with runners going from sprints to routes. Closers running style may not be best suited to projected pace scenario so Fashion Envy likely offers most value as underneath play only.
Race 2: MC 30000, Six furlongs on the Dirt, For Maidens, Fillies Two Years Old. Post Time: 1:39 PM EDT.
Selections: 1-5-9
(1) Bird Traffic: This daughter of Cross Traffic drops not only in class but also cuts back in distance after not showing much in first career effort, although she did post the highest out last effort speed figure amongst the entire field with a 67 BSR. She could wake up a bit today as she receives the wonder drug Lasix for the first time and has drawn an ideal position along the rail. Finally, although she has yet to race over the slop her sire showed a major affinity for running over wet surfaces as he posted a 44% Mud stat according to Brisnet.
(5) Starvana: Taking a shot here with this first time starter for trainer Bret Calhoun (19% win rate over past three years with first time starters). Pedigree suggests the distance will be no issue for her, especially since damsire is Speightstown, one of the better sprinter producing sires. Additionally, she should show an affinity for racing over the slop, especially since Speightstown posted a 22% Mud stat. Finally Starvana posted a very sharp workout over five furlongs on the Keeneland main track back on October 17th so it appears she could be quite fit coming into this race.
(9) So Dramatic: First time starter out of Big Drama goes out for barn of trainer Joe Sharp (20% win rate over past three years in Maiden Claiming races). Her dam produced two winners from three starters and her pedigree suggests the six furlongs should be right in her wheelhouse. Over past 14 days team of Sharp and Beschizza had managed to finish in the money in eight of their last eleven races. Only drawback to this filly is the less than ideal post position as runners in posts nine and further outward have only won 26% (12 for 46) of the one turn dirt sprints so far in the current Keeneland meet.
Race 3: Clm 30000b, 1 1/16 miles on the Dirt, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time 2:12 PM EDT.
Selections: 7-5-1
(7): Tapsolute: This son of Tapit goes out for the barn of trainer Steve Asmussen today and makes a major drop in class after back to back fourth place efforts against $50K Claimers earlier this year. There appears to be enough speed entered into this race that his off the pace running style shouldn’t be too much of a detriment to him and in fact if he gets honest enough fractions to run at, his superior closing speed makes him a legitimate threat to hit the board. Asmussen has been doing quite well so far at Keeneland, having won 16% of his first 38 starts and additionally he boasts a 19% win rate over the past three years win runners returning from layoffs of 46-90 days away. Finally over the past 14 days, Santana has finished in the money with 9 of his last 19 mounts for the trainer including 5 winners.
(5) Quiet Dude: Today marks the first time that this son of Spring At Last has stretched out to a route distance in well over a year; however, his pedigree more than suggests he can handle the trip and the class relief he receives today should certainly help as well. Over the past three years, Amoss trainees have found the winner’s circle a ridiculous 36% of the time after making the sprint-sprint-route adjustment. Additionally, Amoss has done quite well with his runners making their third start off of a layoff, as he has won 28% of his last 109 starts under those conditions. The only drawback to Quiet Dude is his closing running style as he appears to like to try and rally from well back and as such may not get the best pace setup especially if the field is tightly bunched up due to sloppy conditions.
(1) Parauari: This son of Lawman will be making his dirt debut for trainer Eddie Kenneally after primarily racing on the grass when he began his career in France and then after being shipped over to the United States. While his pedigree suggests that the distance may in fact be even a little too short for him, it is his sire’s and damsire’s affinity for mud that gives pause here as the numbers are less than encouraging. However, Kenneally has posted a 23% win rate over the past three years with runners making the switch from turf to dirt and the rail master, Corey Lanerie, who has finally started to heat up, gets the call to ride today. This one could very well finish up the track, but at 9/2 ML odds, he’s at the very least useful as an underneath play here.
Race 4: Mdn 67k, Five and a half furlongs on the Turf, For Maidens, Two Years Old. Post Time: 2:45 PM EDT.
Selections: 3-2-9
(3) Philosophy: Taking a shot here with the first time starter, a son of Speightstown, for trainer Mark Casse. This colt’s dam has produced eight winners including four stakes winners and three turf winners from ten starters thus far. Additionally, his pedigree suggests he should take to the grass with ease, even if it does have a lot of give to it. Geroux gets the call to ride today and he has done well thus far not only when racing on the turf (14% win rate) but also at Keeneland (8 wins from 66 starts so far).
(2) Jo Jo Air: This daughter of Scat Daddy makes a massive drop in class today for trainer Wesley Ward, coming out of a really disappointing finish in the Indian Summer Stakes (Listed) earlier this meet over today’s distance on the grass. However since that effort, she posted a bullet work over four furlongs on the main track and appears to be in good form heading into this race. In her first two efforts, she displayed a propensity to be forwardly placed, at least early on, before she inexplicably faded down the stretch in both those starts. Ward has been quite good over the past three years not only with two year olds (22% win rate from 614 starts) but also with runners entered in Maiden Special Weight races (24% win rate from 484 starts).
(9) Bourbon in May: Trainer Todd Pletcher is looking to take home this year’s training title for the fall Keeneland meet as he already has eight wins (from just 17 starts too, so it’s apparent he has been positioning his runners well). The pedigree for this colt (More Than Ready/Distorted Humor) not only suggests that he should take to the grass with ease but also that this sprint distance will not be too sharp for him. Additionally, a course with some give in the ground should be no issue for Bourbon in May as well. Pletcher has been winning at a 22% rate with first time starters and it is always encouraging to see Jose Ortiz (19% win rate in turf races this year) get the call to ride.
Race 5: Mdn 67k, Six furlongs on the Dirt, For Maidens, Two Years Old. Post Time: 3:18 PM EDT.
Selections: 9-1-4
(9) Ready and Rich: This son of Super Saver will be cutting back in distance for trainer Ignacio Correas IV after just failing at this class level over seven furlongs on the opening Saturday of the Keeneland meet. Thus far, all five of the six furlong sprints have been won by horses with odds between 2-1 and 5-1 and all five of those runners have either won by being on the lead or sitting just off of it, which bodes quite well for Ready and Rich given his ML odds and his preferred running style. This colt has yet to finish out of the trifecta in any of his six career starts and has finished second in all three starts at today’s distance. Julien Leparoux, the current leader in the jockey title race with 11 wins thus far, gets the call to ride again today.
(1) Bundibunan: The other entry for Correas in this field, a first time starter out of Ghostzapper, draws an ideal rail position for this race. This colt’s dam has one winner from one starter and his pedigree suggests he should handle the potentially sloppy conditions with ease. Correas has been winning at a 14% rate with first time starters over the past three years and it is very, very encouraging to see Jose Ortiz (19% win rate in sprint races this year) elect to ride today. Plus at ML odds of 12-1, what’s not to like.
(4) Warrior’s Charge: This son of Munnings goes out today for the barn of Brad Cox. Offspring of Munnings win their first start at a 17% rate and the pedigree for this colt is not only excellent for sprinting but also is well suited for handling off conditions. Cox has been winning at a 22% rate (from 285 starts) with first time starters as well as boasts a 26% win rate (from 463 starts) with trainees running in Maiden Special Weight races. Over the past year Geroux has been winning sprint races at a 23% rate.
Race 6: Clm 20000n2L, Six furlongs on the Dirt, For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 3:51 PM EDT.
Selections: 10-4-6
(10) Castle Ridge: Although the Ron Moquett trainee drew a less than ideal post for this race (Post Positions 9 and further outside have only won 26% of the one turn dirt sprints thus far), there is no denying that she has excellent early speed and so far in the Keeneland meet, these sprints at the claiming level have been dominated by horses that can get out to the lead early on. Castle Ridge has won already at this meet, although that was against lesser and she will be stepping up in class today, but it appears she will be up to the challenge. Gaffalione (21% win rate in sprints this year) gets the call to ride as Ortiz has picked up another mount.
(4) Despina: Trainer Doug Anderson sends out this daughter of Caleb’s Posse as she receives a bit of class relief today after having been beaten by only one and a quarter lengths in her last start. Her pace-stalking abilities should have her running just a few lengths off of the early leaders before trying to close late and as there is a decent amount of early speed entered into this race, the pace could set up well for her to hit the board. Anderson has done well over the past three years, having won 17% of his last 268 starts with runners racing at the Claiming level.
(6) Mischievous Lass: The barn of trainer John Ortiz sends out this daughter of Into Mischief after just having missed against tougher rivals in her last start. She has hit the board in all five of her starts at today’s distance and moreover boasts the highest speed figure amongst the entire field for the distance, which she posted three starts back. Mischievous Lass has shown some versatility in her running style and does possess good tactical speed which could be crucial for her chances at hitting the board today. Jose Ortiz (19% win rate in sprints this year) gets the call to ride.
Race 7: Alw 69000n2L, 1 1/16 miles on the Turf, For Two Year Olds. Post Time: 4:24 PM EDT.
Selections: 10-4-3
(10) Junkanoo: This son of Scat Daddy exits a $75K Maiden race for who else but trainer Chad Brown. One of only two runners in the entire field to have actually raced at today’s distance already and the only one to have contested the distance over yielding ground that should give a major advantage to this young colt. Brown has done quite well not only when shipping in to race (26% win rate) but also with runners that broke their maiden in their last race (26% win rate). Gaffalione, who has been on fire as of late, gets the call to ride again today. Beware though of Junkanoo’s odds as favorites in 1 1/16 mile races on the turf are a measly 1 for 17 thus far, so while this colt could certainly win perhaps hedge your bets as post time nears and this one is still the favorite.
(4) All American Hero: This son of Hard Spun was last seen in September when in impressive fashion he broke his maiden by taking a field of $56K Maidens gate to wire. While this colt will be stepping up in class today and slightly stretching out in distance, if he can show that same blazing early speed that he displayed in that last out effort, he could be tough to catch. Additionally his pedigree suggests that he shouldn’t mind some give in the ground. While Casse has not been having the greatest meet this fall, it is notable that All American Hero is owned by John Oxley and usually when this owner-trainer combination pair up, good things happen. Julien Leparoux, who has won with 24% of his mounts for Casse over the past 60 days, gets the call to ride again today.
(3) Credit Swap: The Michael Stidham trainee exits a sixth place finish in the $200K Indian Summer Stakes (Listed) early this month at Keeneland over five and a half furlongs. While this will be the first time this colt has ever stretched out to a route, his pedigree suggests that he should be able to handle the increase in distance. Stidham has been winning at a 25% rate (from 102 starts) over the past three years with runners attempting routes for the first time. In a full field, this colt may get overlooked on the toteboard and at 6-1 ML odds is certainly worth playing underneath in any exotic wagers.
Race 8: Alw 69000n1X, Seven furlongs on the Dirt, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 4:57 PM EDT.
Selections: 4-7-9
(4) Silver Dust: This son of Tapit will be stepping slightly up in class today for trainer Bret Calhoun after finishing third last month over a sloppy six and a half furlongs at Churchill Downs against similar competition. Silver Dust has shown that he can be a bit versatile in his running style as he appears to be equally comfortable racing both on the lead as well as stalking from just off of the pace. Additionally, in his only try at the distance he posted a 95 BSR which is tied for the highest speed figure amongst the entire field at the distance. The blinkers come off today for Silver Dust which should allow him to get out quickly early on and either be on the front or at the very least forwardly placed (as there is a good amount of other early speed present in this field). Calhoun has won with 24% of his last 25 starters when making this equipment change.
(7) Mac Jagger: This colt drops in class today for trainer Brian Lynch after having finished fourth against tougher back in September at Belmont over seven furlongs. The blinkers go back on today so perhaps that will help sharpen Mac Jagger’s focus and it appears that he should get a fast pace which will be conducive to his running style. Last weekend he fired off a scorcher of a workout and even with potentially sloppy conditions, this one shouldn’t mind the wet track as his pedigree suggests he will handle it with ease. Finally it is very encouraging to see Jose Ortiz pick up the mount today as he has been winning with closer type horse, such as Mac Jagger, at an 18% rate this year.
(9) Giant Honor: Just about half of the seven furlong dirt races over the course of the past several Keeneland fall meets have been won by horses cutting back in distance from races of a mile or more, which bodes quite well for this son of To Honor and Serve to be able to possibly score a massive upset today. Throughout his career this colt has not shown much in any of his races, yet it is possible that he could improve today as he cuts back in distance and it appears he will have no trouble adapting to a wet track as he has finished third in his only start over an off going. Huffman has won with 15% of his runners making their second start off of a layoff and at 30-1 ML odds, this one is definitely worth taking a shot with as an underneath play in exotics.
Race 9: The $200,000 Grade 2 Hagyard Fayette Stakes, 1 1/8 miles on the Dirt, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 5:30 PM EDT.
Selections: 5-6-2
(5) Leofric: This son of Candy Ride exits a third place performance in nine furlong Woodward Stake (G1) last month at Saratoga in which despite having been on or near the lead for the majority of the race was just beaten in the final strides by Breeder’s Cup Classic contenders Yoshida and Gunnevera. The last three editions of this race were all won by horses within two lengths of the lead after the opening half mile which bodes very well for Leofric as he has not only has good early speed but has also demonstrated some fantastic late closing speed figures in several of his previous races as well. Leofric is one of just two front-running types entered into this rather compact field, the other being Prime Attraction who drew the rail. It appears that the best chance Leofric has at scoring a victory today is to allow Prime Attraction to go out and set the initial fractions whilst rating just behind and then before the field turns for home, strike and challenge for the lead before the deeper runners can get rolling. Leofric’s pedigree and prior experience over a wet track suggest that he should be able to handle potentially sloppy conditions. Finally, Cox has won 28% of his last 391 starts when returning his trainees to racing after layoffs of 46-90 days away.
(6) Hofburg: The Bill Mott trainee comes into this race following a very disappointing showing in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) back in September at Parx. However, prior to that he did win the $100K Curlin Stakes (Listed) over a sloppy nine furlongs at Saratoga so handling a wet track today should present no issues to this son of Tapit. Yet his running style is a bit of a concern here as unless the pace is absolutely blistering up front, his usual try and close from well back running style could be at a distinct disadvantage today. Additionally over the course of the history of this race only two three year olds have ever won and those were Blame (2009) and Arch (1998). Although Hofburg’s most recent speed figures make him a legitimate threat in this race, Mott’s record in graded stakes races (12% win rate from 340 starts over the past three years), combined with the fact that Hofburg will likely go off as the post time favorite is enough that he should be played underneath only. Finally, it is also interesting to note that Irad Ortiz elected to stay in New York to ride today and thus his brother Jose (17% win rate in routes this year) gets the mount.
(2) Nice Not Nice: Trainer Buff Bradley who won this race last year with The Player sends out this son of Twirling Candy following a second place finish last month in the one mile Ack Ack Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs. Since Keeneland switched back to a dirt main track surface, three of the last four editions of this race have been won by horses that last raced at Churchill Downs. It appears that Ack Ack performance may have been a coming out party for Nice Not Nice, one in which he finally started to put things together, as the horses he raced against including winner Seeking the Soul were a salty bunch of graded stakes veterans and winners. Nice Not Nice’s running style is that of a pace stalker and as such he will likely be found travelling just a few lengths behind the two early speed horses in this field waiting for an opportune moment to strike for the lead. His pedigree and prior experience over wet tracks should ease any worries about his handling potentially sloppy conditions today. Gabriel Saez will get the call to ride again today; with Saez aboard Nice Not Nice has finished in the exacta in all five of his starts. Additionally, Nice Not Nice fired off a fairly sharp five furlong work last weekend at Churchill and appears to be in good form coming into this race. While it would be fairly shocking for him to win today, Nice Not Nice can definitely hit the board in this race and should be able to do so at a nice price as he potentially will be overlooked on the toteboard with the big three (Prime Attraction, Leofric, and Hofburg) taking all the money.
Race 10: Alw 71000n2x, 1 1/16 miles on the Turf, For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 6:03 PM EDT
Selections: NONE
I will be passing on this race as I have no firm opinion on any of the runners in this field.