Race 1 – 5- Don’t Stop Maria ran through her conditions three and four back over the winter at Turfway. Then off those two wins was raised against allowance company where she was competitive underneath. Now drops in for $16,000 today. Catches an average at best group for this level at Keeneland. And has a race over this strip in the fall that’s competitive with these.
2- Lurey An the Louisana Bred goes both turf to dirt and route to extended sprint while also first off the claim. Lots of changes. Has plenty of good dirt form at Fair Grounds over the winter to suggest a good effort is expected today. We just think the price with Irad Ortiz signed on will be into 8-5/7-5 territory by off, and that’s too low for us to swallow.
1- Lucy’s Town rallied off two straight wins at Turfway in her last two. Will need to work out a trip from the rail. Jockey Lanerie easily could as it is where he likes to be.
Race 2 – 5- Royal Mesa goes third off the layoff and should be set to run a big race. Reliable connections. Good post. Distances suits. Positional speed to either take the lead or stalk our second pick 6- Felix the Fox.
‘Felix projects to track off the top pick (but could also set the pace) in this Preakness distance maiden race. Better break today will help keep him in good position early. Knocking on the door at this level at Aqueduct in the fall. With that Gulfstream 4th place effort under the belt, has every chance to take this one.
1- Green Fleet will need to stay closer to pace to have a say on the win end. We faded to third choice because of the lack of early speed. Its connections of Cox and Geroux, so no one would be surprised if this one is in the winner’s circle, but we think will be over-bet off connections and the form doesn’t justify this ones projected tote support.
Race 3 – 12- Bar Harbor, trainer Shug McGaughey is 4-14 with a $2.67 ROI with horses fitting this profile of second career start, hitting the board last time, in turf routes. Irad up. Good speed figure in debut. Will have to overcome the outside post with the short run to the clubhouse turn, but we think this one is the best horse in the race and will back anything at 3-1 or more at the window.
7- Snap Hook was third in a three horse photo last time at Tampa against similar. That was his first start in 9 months, so likely needed that race. Faster performance today expected second up.
2- North Point has a cozy inside post and projects to save ground all the way. Not sure if he’s fast enough to upend the top choice if it runs as expected, but does figure underneath at the very least.
Race 4 – 10- Conqueror was done no favors in the racing office when assigned the 10 post. But we think this one is the best horse in the race and has the early gas to clear early to hopefully sit in the three path around the first turn. High winning percentage connections of trainer Peter Miller and owner’s Rockingham Ranch. The mile suits off this one.
8- Italian Charm gets Castellano in the irons. Back in against claiming company for this 7 time winner. Should be in good tracking position. We like consistent horses, like this one, who just run on any surface as evidenced by his performance on both dirt and turf. These types usually show up with good efforts in the afternoons if spotted well like this one is today.
1- U S Marshal likely needed that turf sprint last time as it looks like a setup race. If trainer Joe Sharp can have this one finding its form of a few years back, then this guy has a big look at a sneaky 8-1 ML.
Race 5 – We’re taking a 10-1 swing with 3- Harbor Lights. This daughter of Shackleford showed some talent winning on debut. The barn has always thought she can run as evidenced by them trying her in graded company as both a 2 and 3 year old. We think the Shacklefords get better with age. She projects to sit a nice tracking ground saving trip off the outside speeds who assuredly have to go with the short first turn run.
11- Gio Game likes it at Keeneland as she’s 2-1-1-0 over this surface. Dropping down from Grade One company off the long layoff. Workout tab suggests she’s race ready off the lay-off.
10- Coach Rocks was a grade two winner at three and is now a four year old, we’ll wait and see if she’s improved with age. She was disappointing last time at Gulfstream going seven furlongs in her first race of the season, but we think she’s more effective around two turns and that was probably a race she needed.
Race 6– 7- Malakeh makes her first start in North America for more than capable off the layoff trainer Grahm Motion. Gets the hot riding Castellano. The Timeform ratings this gal earned racing in Germany suggest she’s got graded stakes talent and is the class of the field. We’ll bet she’s race fit off the lay-off.
9- Flat Meadow just missed a nose last time at this condition in New Orleans. Freshened up off that race in January. Has a second and fourth in two starts over this course, so she’s taken to it in the past. We think she may get lost at the window and float up to 8-1 territory, which is fair value.
12- Fiber Optic was a debut winner for trainer Ian Wilkes, who is not seen as one who cranks them up to win first out. So this one could be one in his stable who can really run. Its never easy stepping up versus winners first time while simultaneously stretching out in distance, but we think this one is good enough to be close at the wire. Some of the AE’s are contenders so pay attention to see if any draw in.
Race 7 – Shout out to Turfway Park with our top pick in the Ben Ali in 10- Nun the Less. We cashed lots of tickets over the winter on this sharp barn. Hoping that continues today. Since being claimed back in June for $40,000 this barn has moved him up. Winner of the Kentucky Cup last time and two back winner of the Prairie Bayou at Turfway. One for one at Keeneland. One for one going 9 furlongs.
9- Bourbon Resolution goes third off the layoff for Ian Wilkes. Should produce a top effort, if its good enough to win we’ll just have to wait and see as he may be a cut below these on the speed figure scales. But at 12-1 he’s worth the price.
8- Bonus Points is a hard knocking type who always seems to show up for high winning percentage connections of Todd Pletcher, Johnny Velazquez, and owners Three Diamonds Farm. Five year old seems to be getting better with age. Love the consistency he’s shown over the last year in New York and Maryland. Will have to bring his race with him to Kentucky to have a say today.
Race 8– 10- Excessivespending is a closing type who we think will benefit from the projected hot pace. Has been knocking heads with many of the other contenders in here in her last six races dating back to last fall here. She’s good enough to win on her best day which we think will come out today given the pace scenario. Patient rider Leparoux we expect to come down the center late and cut ‘em down.
4- Surrender Now makes her first start since August for high win percentage Peter Miller, who is especially profitable in turf sprints winning at a 31% clip with a $3.44 ROI. Projects to sit a good trip under Johnny V. If her speed figs improve now as a four year old then she’s the one to beat. We only faded her to second because of the layoff.
8- Morticia is a consistent stakes quality turf sprint filly. But for this reason or that, race by race, it seems like she just doesn’t win very often. And she projects to take a lot of money at the window and be a short price again. We think she’s a use underneath, but a swing against on the win end.
Race 9 – 4- Anothertwistafate just missed in the Sunland Derby last time in his dirt debut. Had a solid breeze out of that race at Sunland. Get a big rider upgrade to Castellano. This horse can run and I think is a serious contender to win the Derby. Don’t sleep on this guy in the Derby if he is an impressive winner today.
3- Sueno is a consistent sort who can be there underneath. Carries a class edge versus these as he’s hit the board in the Louisana Derby, Southwest, and Sham in his last three. Takes his race with him on the road as he’s won or hit the board at 5 different tracks in his six starts.
7- Knicks Go is a grade one winner over this surface. Flattered that race by going second behind Game Winner in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. Since then has been no-where. Maybe trainer Ben Colebrook can turn this one’s form around. The talent is certainly under that hood somewhere.
8- Zenden is pretty good Florida horse who could easily have a say on the win end with a good forward trip. Nice group signed on for the Lexington Stakes today!
Race 10 – The Coolmore Jenny Wiley– Featured race today. 2- Rushing Fall is very good. She loves this Keeneland course going 3-3 over it. She was the best 3 year old turf filly last year. Must show she has improved now against olders, but we think Chad Brown is just the trainer she needs to get this done.
4- Rymska is another really good turf filly in the Chad Brown barn. Coming into this race in fine form off that two length score in the Hillsborough at Tampa last time. She’s very capable of winning this race today.
8- Onethemoonagain was too far back last time in the Hillsborough to win and she was coming off a layoff, so she had some excuses and still ran on to be credible third. She was grade one placed last fall. Just wonder if this race is too short for her. This race runs through Chad Brown no doubt.
Race 11 – 9- Unshaken is a first time starter for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and world famous owner’s Godolphin Stables. Son of Tapit has been lighting it up in the mornings down in Florida at Palm Meadows training center. Irad Ortiz in the irons is a great sign. This one has the look of a very live firster.
11- Hometown Salute is another first time starting son of Tapit. Out of the precious race mare Warbling. Work tab is solid. Like to see that local ½ mile breeze over the surface. Johnny V takes the call. Another live looking firster.
3- Newcomer comes out of a live maiden race at Gulfstream. Winner that day was a well meant Todd Pletcher horse, the second place horse came back to break his maiden here in last Saturday’s second race by about 10 lengths, so no shame in finishing behind them. Ian Wilkes usually races his horses into shape, so we expect improvement second out today. Advise spreading in this race to close out your late multi race wagers. Tough race to close out a Keeneland Saturday.