Hunter Ulwelling’s Keeneland Picks 10/24/2018
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Keeneland stats
W% 31%
R.O.I.=+13%
LW 3-8 25.40 +7.40
Race 1- 1st #2 Riesling is lightly raced and pretty fresh already with one Keeneland start under her belt, and it wasn’t a bad loss. The connections haven’t tried to route this filly yet, so clearly sprinting is her thing, but I would be interested to find out how she would stretch out.
2nd #6 Catkins definitely needed an out, gets back to the dirt, I am confident she will hit the board, but not convinced she will win. Her Beyer numbers are consistent, Wayne Catalano trains, Channing Hill has the mount.
3rd #8 Shackleford County is making her second start. Her first race was not impressive, but she has a nice dam named American County who was a stakes winner/graded stakes placed, and I feel with some more experience under her belt, this one will improve.
Race 2- 1st #2 Storm Stride is trained by Steve Margolis and didn’t get the perfect trip last out. It was a decent third place and the winner was ahead by five, I am hoping this filly can run better if she can get a good start, and Bridgmohan is winless, but maybe this could be the one…
2nd #7 Headland finished just behind Storm Stride last out and also looks to break her maiden. The foals out of Miss Sheltowee have done well for themselves, Paynter is doing excellent as a sire for two year olds, and just like Storm Stride, just needs a little experience.
3rd #5 Royal Angel just got a trainer change, and I believe this will work to her benefit. A softer spot in for the tag in this race suits her better. Curious how she will perform. Joe Sharp has twenty-two starts and four wins here, not bad.
Race 3- 1st #4 Trace is a nicely bred filly by Ghostzapper, out of an Arch mare. She is going back on the turf, as she has one start, one third place on the surface. Morales and Colebrook are doing an excellent job at Keeneland, and I think Trace can rebound.
2nd #1 Blazen Betsy is one that concerns me. She’s had a few layoffs for her young career, and one just after she crushed her maiden by 13 lengths, but I think under Brad Cox’s training and Geroux aboard, this filly has a shot trying the turf.
3rd #3 Girl’s Night is on the board almost every time, and taking a fourth place at Kentucky Downs is respectable. I like this horses consistency, but she only has a third place on the turf. She was behind Trace last out.
Race 4-1st #2 Shesomajestic looks like the one to beat. She has one race compared to a large majority of the field, a second place at Churchill. It is hard to predict how she will run with cutback in distance, works are average, but then again, two year-olds are like throwing darts.
2nd #4 Sugar Magic could be an upset. Unraced, decent works, trainer is 16%, grade 3 winning mare, and a hot stallion named Candy Ride. There really isn’t anything not to like about this filly.
3rd #1 Special for You, by Super Saver has a lot of workouts, and several are bullets. Her three older siblings are winners. Eddie Kennally is having a great meet with twenty-four starts and six wins.
Race 5-1st #6 Halite is ridden by James Graham and trained by Ben Colebrook. Lightly raced with five starts, one win, one second, and one third. Slight class relief and a trainer’s change could improve this horse.
2nd #5 Gettysburg ran in the Belmont two years ago, and hasn’t showed the same form by any means. Another horse who has a change of trainers, but his running pattern is inconsistent. He now runs for half the price, maybe it will help.
3rd #2 Daringly Bold’s claiming price is now cut in half and I like class drops on a lot of horses. He also went rom a 47 Beyer number to a 74 in his last start. A tough horse to take being that his one win was by a neck at Belterra…
Race 6-1st #4 Sippin Kitten has already ran in some tough races and has been shipped around quite a bit, ran a good third on a short break. It is tough to go wrong with Mike Maker and Tyler Gafflalione who have had successful Keeneland meets.
2nd #1 Kallio won at Kentucky Downs last out by a neck, before that had a couple of decent third place finishes, very lightly raced for being almost four, but maybe its for the best. I think she will improve here.
3rd #7 Tammit doesn’t seem to enjoy stakes company, but does well in the other races. Julian Leparoux has ridden her several times, including for the win. He reunites with her again in this race, stretching out a little more on the distance.
Race 7-1st #2 Majestic Affair is coming in fresh after a stakes win at Ellis back in July. Cox trains, and this horse has been on the board fourteen out of twenty races and that is pretty darn good.
2nd #1a Eight Town was a spendy colt at a purchase price of $200,000 and is well on his way to earning back his purchase price and with the efforts this guy puts into running, he is on his way. Brian Lynch trains, Jose Ortiz is riding.
3rd #6 Hot Shot Kid is one of the few Minnesota breds that can compete and win against open company. He rarely throws in a clunker, being on the board fourteen out of nineteen starts, again, for a MN bred is pretty awesome, and his trainer can compete anywhere.
Race 8- 1st #10 Teryn It Up is yet another Brian Lynch trainee, ride by Jose Ortiz. This English Channel filly is always right with the others when she runs, doesn’t lose by much. I think out of her seven starts, she is steadily improving and looks for the win here.
2nd #2 St. Denman didn’t get a good trip last out, and was disqualified from his maiden victory at Kentucky Downs. He’s ran pretty good so far in his career. So, Brenden Walsh is going to give this horse another shot, and I really feel this horse will be in the top three.
3rd #6 Preacher Power is going to need an out off a layoff, but I trust Eddie Kenneally enough to have him ready to go for today’s race. Works are average but Leparoux is back on him, hoping this horse can improve, if not in today’s race, the next couple of races when he is fit.