Friday action from Keeneland offers a 10 race card, with the feature being the Grade 3 Buffalo Trace Franklin County Stakes for fillies and mares sprinting on the turf. This race has been known to produce a few starters over the years for the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.
Race 1: $20,000 Maiden Claiming NW3L or 3yo, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 2-6-5
Tough race to figure in the opener as Just Fly (6) has been really good in her last two races, but she has several clunkers in her running lines. If you believe that she’s starting to figure things out, as she’s improved over three starts since moving into the Jason Barkley barn, she makes sense as a single in the first leg of the early Pick-5. She’s also the only filly in here with more than two wins. I’m not 100% sold though, so I’ll try to beat her with Charge It Jenn (2) who makes her second career start on dirt after racing exclusively on turf for her first sixteen tries. Her last wasn’t bad against better horses at the track and distance. She drops and could be the only one gaining ground in the latter stages. Abramax is an improving three year old who moves up in class again. Her two dirt races are better than her first four on turf.
Race 2: $32,000 Claiming, F/M, 7 Furlongs: My Picks: 1-5-3
It seems to me that this race runs through Keep Your Distance (1), who has been a popular mare at the claim box. She has been claimed five times in her last nine starts, most recently for $25,000, after a sharp effort at Saratoga. She was a little flat on the grass with Starter Allowance company at Kentucky Downs last out. She returns to her preferred surface and distance, while facing a pretty soft group for the condition. Nomizar (5) is the main danger on the drop in class from allowance ranks. Her last two races against claimers have been very good and I think she should be able to get the additional furlong. Shasta Star (3) won on the grass at Kentucky Downs last out. She was a stakes winner on dirt on the Northern California Fair Circuit last year and it looks like she’s on her way back to being in better form.
Race 3: $50,000 NW2L Claiming, 7 Furlongs: My Picks: 1-6-2
It’s A Wrap (1) was claimed two back at Saratoga in a 40K maiden claimer. He came back to break his maiden on the dirt at Churchill for 50K. This is a logical next step for a horse that has never raced poorly on the main track. The Feature (6) tried the grass in a salty allowance spot at Kentucky Downs last time out. He returns to the dirt, running for a tag for the first time. His only race at 7 furlongs was dull, but we was a longshot in a good field that day. Trashtalkinyankee (2) has been much more effective when racing in claiming races than when he faces allowance types. He was fourth beaten five in a two turn race at this level last out. He should move forward while cutting back in distance.
Race 4: $8,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 8-11-13-12
There’s a full field of lower level claimers here. I’ll take a longshot swing with Royal Privacy (8) who is moving up in class and shipping in from Canterbury. His last two races on dirt in June and July fit well with this level, and should get him pretty close, if he’s able to duplicate those tries. His last three have been a little dull on the grass, but this is his preferred surface and distance, winning 8 of 21 at 6 Furlongs and hitting the board in 16 of those 21. Park Avenue Benny (11) is the likely and logical favorite who is first off the claim for Asmussen. His recent form is just better than most of these, and he’s one of only two horses with a win on this course. Attain Success (13) is on the AE list, but he merits attention if he draws into the body of the field. He drops after not hitting the board in his last two with better horses. He fits nicely at this level and should be passing tired horses late. Victory Element (12) has outside speed, and I do worry a bit about a speed duel percolating with my top choice. His last two tries on the main track would be very competitive here.
Race 5: $30,000 Maiden Claiming, F/M, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 7-3-8
This is not the greatest field for the class level, so I’ll try Grimpante (7) if there’s some value there on the board. She has raced twice on grass, but her pedigree would suggest dirt would be better. She’s been away since being claimed in April, but she has been working well enough for her new connections. Flatoya (3) is the most logical horse as she drops from maiden special company for the first time in her career. She is 0-8 though, and she probably should have won some of those races she failed in. Ashley’s New Shoes (8) makes her first start in almost a year. She drops a bit, but showed some zip last out. She has on outside post and could get brave if she’s not challenged early.
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile and 1/16 Turf: My Picks: 1-7-2
This is a sneaky good maiden special weight race on the grass. I really like Telephone Talker (1) in this spot. He ran a monster race in defeat in his debut on dirt here last year. He was close in his next two starts, one of which was at this distance. He went to the shelf and switched to the Maker barn after a dull two turn dirt try at Gulfstream. He came back with a strong effort in a sprint at Kentucky Downs, and should appreciate going a little farther today. Gear Jockey (7) ran well in his three turf races as a two year old last year, including hitting the board in graded stakes races (The Bourbon and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf). The dirt experiment didn’t go well, so he’s back on his preferred surface. Capt. Maestri (2) ran well enough in his debut in a race that was rained off the grass. He could upset the apple cart at a big number in his second start.
Race 7: $30,000 NW2L Claiming, F/M, 7 Furlongs, My Picks: 6-3-2
This is probably my least favorite race on the card, as I don’t love the value I’m getting on any of these. I’ll try Not A Problem (6) who has faster races on turf than on dirt, but her only win did come on the main track. I think she has the best chance to run down some of the stretch out speed here. Behind The Couch (3) is a New York bred transplanted to Kentucky. She ran okay in her first start for Medina at Chruchill at this level. Her form from last year shows that middle distance sprints are where she performed best. I just don’t love the 5-2 price. Larimar (2) debuted well enough on dirt last year at Monmouth, but only has turf and synthetic starts to show this year. She’s been working well on this track. I would pick her on top at 6 Furlongs, but stretching out to seven is a question mark.
Race 8: Optional $80,000 Claiming/NW3X Allowance 7 Furlongs, My Picks: 2-4-6
This is a stakes quality field of twelve that would headline most weekday cards. Hog Creek Hustle (2) gets a favorable pace scenario this after and is by far best when running at 7 Furlongs. His form has been a bit spotty this year, but he’s been strong at races at this level. Lookin’ At Bikinis (4) makes his long awaited return to the races for Chad Brown. He was very good when racing at this distance last. He may be a touch rusty, but he is definitely the class of this group. A strong effort here might set him up nicely for a race like the Cigar Mile. Lasting Legacy (6) was a winner at this level at Churchill, but was taken down for drifting out late. He’s run well at the distance and is a big threat if he can build off his last.
Race 9: The Grade 3 Buffalo Trace Franklin County, F/M, 5 and ½ Furlongs Turf, My Picks: 2-10-9
There’s another full field here with multiple Grade 1 winner, Got Stormy as the headliner. She’s shortening up a bit and may not have the same kick at 5 and ½ here as opposed to 6 and ½ at Kentucky Downs. I’ll try to beat her with Into Mystic (2) who was beaten by Got Stormy last month. She’s likely to get a firm course today and she could be the best of the speeds from her inside draw. I think the cutback gives her a shot to turn the tables on the heavy favorite. Got Stormy (10) is the one to beat, as she looks to prove she can be as effective sprinting on the grass as she is at two turns. Her form was a little off this year until her last two starts. She appears to be pointing towards the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint instead of the Mile this year, and a string effort here might stamp her as one of the favorites. Stillwater Cove (9) was coming into her own at the end of last season. She’s been away since a strong win at the distance here last October. Ward’s horses fire off layoffs, so that’s not a concern. She does seem to really like this course.
Race 10: NW2L Allowance, F/M 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 3-7-9
The finale completes a pretty strong late sequence that could pay well if some of the favorites get beat. Zero To Sixty (3) exits an allowance on the grass at Kentucky Downs where she found some trouble. Her debut was good and her pedigree (American Pharoah out of a Tale of the Cat mare), suggests that dirt racing shouldn’t be an issue. Stall has been hitting at 24% with runners going from turf to dirt. Lady Rocket (7) debuted a winner at Saratoga, which is never an easy task. She overcome a rough start to close and beat a decent field of maidens. She takes a step up, but certainly got an education in her debut. Ocean Breeze (9) was a beaten favorite against some these last out on Oaks Day at Churchill. She may be more effective at a middle distance sprint, but this is what was carded. Her figures should get her a piece of the pot.