It’s Opening Day for the Fall Meet at Keeneland. The stakes action is front loaded, as is the norm, and extra attention should be paid to many of these stakes races over the first two weeks, as many will be using these races to hopefully propel them to the Breeders’ Cup, here at Keeneland, next month. The Darley Alcibiades and the Stoll Kennon Odgen Phoenix are the co-headliners on the opening day card, where five of the ten races carded are for two year olds.
Race 1: $50,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile and 1/16: My Picks: 4-2-1
The lid lifter of the meet features six tough to gauge maiden claimers, four of whom are offered for a tag for the first time. I’ll try Civil Servant (4) who has pretty much run the same race in six starts, regardless of surface and distance. He’s cutting back from a 12 Furlong turf journey against a deeper field. That may give him the fitness edge over these. Good Juju (2) is also cutting back and dropping for a tag for the first time. The 10 Furlong dirt trip proved to be a little too much last time out. He’s run better races while facing softer maiden special weight types at Ellis, as opposed to higher class maiden allowance horses at Churchill and Gulfstream. Eel Point (1) was a $600,000 purchase who didn’t run that bad in an off the turf maiden special weight at Churchill last out. He’s third off the layoff and was gelded this summer, so I get the drop into maiden claiming, but I would have like to have seen them try him on grass or against maiden special weights once more before dropping.
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight, 2yoF, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 10-1-7
The first of five juvenile races on the card features seven first time starters and three with experience. The pedigrees and works aren’t jumping off the page for the first time starters for me, so I’ll go with experience here. Farsighted (10) debuted on Oaks Day in a strong maiden special weight heat. They went quick early and she got moving late. I think she’ll benefit from that trip and take a step forward here. Mania (1) has five career starts and has been taking swings in stakes company. She found herself attending quick paces at longer distances against winners in her last two. The cutback and drop in class should benefit her. Rawan (7) debuts for the potent combination of Asmussen and Santana. She has a nice pedigree (Distorted Humor out of a Tapit mare) and her works are fine. It is interesting to note that Asmussen and Santana, who have teamed up to win at a 19% clip together, are only hitting at 6% over the last two years at Keeneland.
Race 3: $62,500 Optional Claiming/NW2X Allowance, F/M, 7 Furlongs: My Picks: 1-6-2
This race runs through Risky Mandate (1) whose first two starts last year made me think this filly was on to bigger and better things. Since then, she’s hit the board in four of her last five starts, facing better horses. She cuts back after a two turn experiment and drops in class after getting crushed by Monomoy Girl in the La Troienne. I think she gets back on track today. I loved Cardamon (6) last out at Ellis, but the extra furlong of the mile trip proved to be a bit too far. She’ll do better cutting back to seven furlongs, but seems more likely to land underneath than on top. Club Car (2) may be losing her top form, as evidenced by her last two efforts. She’s hit the board in 8 of 11 career tries, but has missed that mark in her last two. Outside of the top pick, this isn’t the deepest field for the conditions.
Race 4: NW1X Allowance, F/M, 1 Mile and 1/8, Turf: My Picks: 7-1-2
The first turf race of the met is a first level allowance that features two logical players, two making their turf debut, and four that look pretty overmatched on paper. Blame Debbie (7) won at this condition by open lengths, going a little longer at Kentucky Downs. However, she was disqualified from the win and relegated to third. She stays at this condition and finds a field lacking in depth. It’s hard to look past her here. Aurelia Garland (1) is one of two trying the grass for the first time, and she gets the red hot Umberto Rispoli to ride her. Being sired by Constitution, turf should be on the table. Rispoli rode the turf so well at Del Mar this summer, it will be interesting to see if he can carry that form to Kentucky. Prairie Wings (2) has never been worse than second in five career tries for team Pletcher. She broke her maiden in a small field at the Spa in an off the turf spot. Her consistency should keep her close here.
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 2yoF, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 9-1-10
This is the second division of the maiden allowance for two year old fillies. This heat looks a bit tougher than the first. Brad Cox has had a lot of success with daughters of Munnings and he unveils another one this afternoon with Sun Path (9). She has a steady string of works, Tapit as the dam sire for some stamina influence, and Geroux will take the call. Risky Reward (1) by Mshawish was defeated by a runaway winner on the grass in her debut. She should gain some experience from that start, and her pedigree suggests that dirt should also be an option. Tom Amoss sends out Off We Go (10), who may go off as the favorite here after finishing a strong second behind another promising Brad Cox first timer, Travel Column (who is set to run in the Alcibiades later in the day). She can certainly improve this time around, but she finds another salty field.
Race 6: $75,000 Optional Claiming/NW1X Allowance, 2yoF, 1 Mile: My Picks: 6-1-7
Puye Timing (6) ran a real nice race to break her maiden on opening day of the summer meet here. She ran poorly at Ellis in the Debutante while breaking from the outside and not being able to go with the hot pace early on. She progresses to two turns and should be able to be forwardly placed. Torsie’s Charm (1) is the lukewarm morning line favorite, which caught me by surprise. She ran a nice race to break her maiden in her first start on the main track and she gets an advantageous rail draw for the flat mile distance at Keeneland. I think money will come in the fillies that faltered in stakes company though, and I’m hoping for decent value here. Lady Lilly (7) exits the Spinaway where she didn’t run terribly, but she was a well beaten third. She should get better at two turns and certainly can figure in this race.
Race 7: Allowance NW1X, F/M, 1 Mile 1/8, Turf, My Picks: 4-5-8
This is the second division of the NW1X allowance for fillies and mares on the grass. I think Ella Brilla (4) could upset this field with a front running trip. She was well backed last out in a decent allowance race for the condition at Churchill, but she had trouble at the break and never really got to run her race. She’s run her best races on or near the lead and there’s very little pace to go in the early stages. If she can get away cleanly, she might be able to carry that speed. I Hear You (5) is the logical main contender, as she just missed in the same race where Ella Brilla was 4th last time. She won on this course in July and should be right in the thick of things. Luck Money (8) was a very good third at 30-1 in the Dueling Grounds Oaks behind two very nice fillies in Micheline and Harvey’s Lil Goil. She has never finished off the board in eight career tries. She might not be a win candidate, but she makes a lot of sense underneath.
Race 8: The Grade 2 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes, 6 Furlongs, My Picks: 4-3-5
The Phoenix drew a big field and lots of early speed. It’s hard to imagine that speed holding up, unless the track is playing kind to front end runners, or a few of the dedicated pacesetters don’t go. Diamond Oops (4) doesn’t really have a set division, as he has bounced from dirt sprints, to dirt routes, and turf sprints, and turf routes. Through it all, he usually runs a credible race. Sometimes, others are just better than him, but he almost always shows up. He gets a good set up here and he’s handled this 6 Furlong distance well in the past. Whitmore (3) threw in a rare clunker last out in the sea of slop at Saratoga in the Forego. Conditions should be much friendlier today, and he too, should benefit from a lively pace. No Parole (5) will be sent hard to get the lead as he faces older horses for the first time. He may be faster in the first quarter than most. If he can shake free, he’s still a threat, but if he battles, he’ll be softened up.
Race 9: The Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades, 2yoF, 1 Mile and 1/16, My Picks: 6-1-4
The Alcibiades drew a smaller field than usual this year, but there is depth in this seven horse feature this afternoon. Gramercy (6) is very intriguing to me off her debut win on the polytrack at Arlington. She dropped back and looked hopelessly beat, but when she figured things out she was absolutely flying home to get the win. Her pedigree suggests she’ll be better on the main track and that two turns should not be an issue. She’s worth a play in a wide open affair. Thoughtfully (1) has had all the right moves in both of her career starts, winning both by open lengths. Her win in the Adirondack was visually impressive, but the speed figures came back a little light. She, too, is bred to get better as she goes farther. Crazy Beautiful (4) has shown that she is capable of closing, as she’s done that well in all three starts. I’m not sure the race flow will be ideal for her, but she still is very live in this wide open race.
Race 10: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, 1 Mile and 1/16 Turf: My Picks: 3-2-12
This is a strong maiden allowance to end the card today. Three of the twelve are coming out of the non-race at Kentucky Downs where the gate malfunctioned and the field started running with a few horses still behind the gate. Royal Prince (3) was one of those and he won that race very gamely, after not quite being prepared for the start. He was easily the best that day, but was unable to reap the reward. He has a big advantage as he faces non-winners again, since he is still technically a maiden. Storming Lion (2) had some trouble at the start in his debut at Ellis in August. He still came running in the stretch and should be able to be a factor in this spot. I don’t love the outside draw for his debut, but Master of the Ring (12) is a moderately priced son of Bodemeister that has been working well for Stidham at Fair Hill. His horses are always well prepared to make their debut.