Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
I am told that the sense of smell is the strongest of memory keys. You know, the specific smell of cigarettes blended with a touch of weed immediately takes you back to your favorite concert or the way a freshly cut grass field triggers your first little league home run. Well, I just farted and it smelled like my dad was standing behind me. As I’ve gotten older, I have realized that my flatulence has started to smell like my dad’s. And that’s a good thing. You see, I love my dad very much. We don’t talk much, maybe once a month, but we are close. I look forward to his morning phone calls on the days of the Kentucky Derby, the Breeders’ Cup, and any other day he knows I am at the track. “Who you got, buddy?” he always asks. You see, my dad isn’t into horse racing… but he is into me. I am 47 years old and he is still into me. So, as I sit here analyzing horse races for the Internet to later shred, I am reminded of my dad because I just farted. I love him very much and I really should call him more and this week has made me realize that even more because he is scheduled for open-heart surgery today at the University of Alabama-Birmingham. If he makes it, I’m gonna call him more. I encourage you to call your dad today.
Fade me.
Race One: 1:05 post – Maiden 67K 6 1/2F F&M 3YO and Up
2-6-3-1
A small MSW field should allow all entries plenty of room to run their preferred style of race. #3 Urban Insight is returning to Keeneland from a bit of a freshening for Charlie Lopresti and has some fine workouts as a tune up. #1 Belleinthecity is in her second start back for Dallas Stewart and Julien Leparoux. I expect a fitter effort from her this time out as her pedigree suggests she just didn’t like the slop at Churchill in her last race. #6 Bouffant looks a little interesting as a FTS because her sire is known to throw precocious babies and this one has a really solid workout line preparing for her debut. I just can’t get over the low 7% FTS stat for Kenny McPeek. Try as I may, I just couldn’t get away from the chalk #2 East Moon, though she hasn’t found the winner’s circle in her first seven races. I am going to forgive her two recent turf efforts and trust George Arnold with her back on the dirt at Keeneland where she ran a race on 4/7/18 that is easily good enough to win this race.
Race Two: 1:39 post – Maiden Claiming 15K 6 1/2F 3YO and Up
7-13-6-12 $10 DD 7/1,3 $5 Pick 3 7/1,3/9
A full field of twelve entrants and four AEs for this low-level 15K Maiden Claiming race is sure to be quite the show. ML favorite #6 Gambler’s Choice isn’t my choice, though he could easily get it done. #12 Gasaway is returning from an eight month lay-off and he has never ran this low on the ladder. I am not a huge fan of taking a horse off of long lay-offs, but it’s hard to ignore his effort almost a year ago here at Keeneland because it was the best race of his life. #13 Hoptown Honey is on the AE list and would likely be my top choice if he drew in and had a better post. Unfortunately, I think he has way too much to do from the outside. #7 Civil scratches all of my itches when it comes to this level of racing. Tracey Glover owns and trains this horse after he acquired him out of a low-level affair on 8/25/18 at the Pea Patch. He put three solid works into him, one here at Keeneland, throws the blinkers on for the first, and gelds him. I want a horse that has the potential to run much better than his running lines over horses that are proven to be exactly what they are. Gimmee.
Race Three: 2:12 post – OC 75Kn2L 6F 2YO
3-1-5-4 $5 Exacta Box 1/3, $10 DD 1,3/9
A tiny field doesn’t offer me many opportunities to beat the favorite as #1 Preamble looked pretty darn good in his debut at Churchill Downs. Brisset only wins at 6% with his FTS and this one did. That’s incredibly hard to dismiss. You have to draw a line through the Iroquois for #5 Drunk as a Skunk as he never ran a step. Reverting back to typical 2YO form, however, could make him a contender. I am going to rely on Wesley Ward’s #3 Bingwa to give me the value I desire. Ward keeps Julio Garcia with this horse and the two Keeneland workouts since his debut win absolutely jump off the page. I think that many will dismiss him because he ran on the turf at Belterra, but that is a very cagey Wesley Ward move. Goldencents is a first crop sire with some incredibly gaudy results, winning at 20% from 53 runners, Bingwa included.
Race Four: 2:45 post – Allowance 71000n2X 1 ½ Turf 3YO and Up
9-1-3-8 $5 DD 9/5,9
I don’t think we can beat the ML favorite in this race. #9 Soglio towers over this field for Michael Maker and he gets Jose Ortiz back in the irons. Ortiz surely had the choice of at least three runners in this race and he jumped off last time winner #6 High Promise and my second choice #1 Souper Tapit. Soglio has three races at this distance while half the field has never gone this far. In his last race, he lost by under a length to Arklow who finished second in yesterday’s Sycamore. There are far too many positives for me to get cute here. I have always wanted to see #3 Compass Zone go longer, but it looks like they picked a bad time to do it. The connections of #8 Seeking Albert sure think a lot of their horse as he has been in Graded Stakes in five of his last six races, all at Woodbine. In addition, he is the most experienced runner at today’s distance.
Race Five: 3:18 post – MC 75000 6F 2YO Fillies
5-9-4-1 $20 WP 5 $10 DD 5/5
I honestly feel like I need a Ouija board for this full field of twelve maiden claimers. Five of them are first time starters and five others have only one race experience. The ML favorite #9 Katie’s Bayou is the only experienced runner I have any faith in backing as she didn’t care for the slop at all on 9/22/18 at Churchill. The most interesting thing about this race is Ricardo Santana Jr. choosing to ride #4 Carolina Beach over his regular first call trainer Steve Asmussen’s #1 What a Fox. Sure, Carolina Beach ran a better first race than What a Fox, but Santana normally doesn’t bite the hand that feeds him. Methinks Ricardo knows which of these two has the talent, and at a 10/1 ML, I would rather have Carolina Beach. This race could easily be won by a FTS and the one that interests me the most is #5 Hush Y’all. He was recently purchased in the June Ocala sale for four times the stud fee and Brad Cox has worked him twelve times since July. Four of these works have been from the gate and it appears he has flashed some serious talent. Cox fires at 23% with FTS, Florent Geroux is very good with the babies, and the rest of the field is unknown or doesn’t excite me.
Race Six: 3:51 post – Claiming 30000b 6 ½ F F&M 3YO and Up
5-8-1-2
Our ML favorite is #9 As Fast as You Can, who offers lots of questions and few answers, thus creating an excellent betting opportunity. #2 Hymn to Inanna looks to be the most improving horse in the race and I certainly can’t knock her results. Eddie Kenneally has placed her well and she ran a respectable 2nd in her last race, at a higher level, and at Churchill Downs. I am interested in the Belterra shipper #8 Evenscore. Since being claimed for peanuts on 5/27/18, Kathy Jarvis has gradually improved her, broke her maiden, and moved her out of the lower end of the claiming ladder. Jarvis has had 64 starts in 2018 and only wins at 3%. You’ll notice that this runner has won twice with her since the claim. 3% of 64 is TWO. This horse is her only winner of the year and she appears to be taking a shot with her at Keeneland. Melissa Zajac, her jockey, even comes along for the ride. The connections clearly love this horse and have decided to try to win at Keeneland. She may not be good enough, but I love their attitude. #5 No Cacha Na was steadied down the stretch in her last effort about a month ago. Tom Amoss moved her up the ladder for two races after her recent claim so he clearly thought more of her than her claiming price suggested he should. She returns to a dirt sprint today, a situation where she ran her career best race in her first start with Amoss. At today’s level, she makes far more sense.
Race Seven: 4:24 post – Allowance 69Kn1x 5 ½ F Turf F&M 3YO and Up
3-4-9-11 $5 Tri 3,4/3,4,9/3,4,9
First off, #16 Saranda is extremely dangerous in this spot if she draws in off the AE list, but I don’t think she will. #11 La Dame Blanche is sure to gun to the front causing a speed battle with a couple others, but her post is sure to compromise her chances. #9 Pocket Book is a little inside La Dame Blanche and is probably the quickest of them all and it will be interesting to see if Albin Jimenez can rate her for Wesley Ward. I think the fast pace battle I project in this race will compromise them both, so I will look elsewhere. #4 Jet Away Sue may very well get a perfect trip behind the front runners as she has certainly trained well recently. Her last race was a return from a lay-off of just over a year and I expect Bret Calhoun to have this one tuned up for an improved effort today. All of that said, I want #3 Focused in this spot. Edgar Morales still has his five pound weight reduction, she works like a demon at Keeneland so I have to believe she loves the track, and the pace is likely to melt down in front of her. If Edgar can get a trip, Focused is your winner.
Race Eight: 4:57 post – OC 100Kn2x 1 1/16 mile Fillies 3YO
6-4-1-7
Florent Geroux returns to Dallas Stewart’s #4 Auspicious Babe as the 2/1 ML favorite, but see it a different way. I am going to look elsewhere. #1 Dessert Honeys scratched out of a Keeneland race earlier in the meet and her recent workouts suggests she might like Keeneland, but I’m not so sure this filly wants the distance, #7 True Dream does. She has raced six times at this distance and I expect her to close into the expected pace. I fully expect #6 Jump Ruler to blaze to the front and play a little game of catch me if you can under Albin Jimenez. Kelly Breen bit off a little more than he could chew with the aggressive entry into the G1 Cotillion against Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou in her last race. Let’s draw a line through it, appreciate his confidence in her, return to where she belongs, and wire this field.
Race Nine: 5:30 post – Grade 3 Pin Oak Valley View 1 1/16 mile Turf 3YO Fillies
7-3-13-1 $20 WP 7 $2 Super 7/3,13/3,13/1,4,5
I absolutely loved handicapping this race and I could probably be talked into using six different runners as my top choice. #3 Daddy Is a Legend has been chasing Rushing Fall up and down the east coast to no avail, but she has run well in her six previous Graded Stakes and I expect the same today. #13 Poetic Charm makes her American debut for Charlie Appleby and Mike Smith. She has faced some good Euro runners and she is getting Lasix for the first time. If Mike Smith really flew to Keeneland today just for her race, you can bet she is live. #4 Mighty Scarlett and #1 Reversethedecision both run for Chad Brown today; let them beat you at your own peril. Of the two, I actually prefer the #1. Graham Motion has #7 Colonia for her fourth American start since shipping in from France. She won for Motion in her American debut on 7/7/18 closing in to the pace of another of today’s runners, #5 Cool Beans. She was then sent out west for a well-intentioned attempt in the G1 Del Mar Oaks. She dawdled out of the gate but managed to make a nice bid into Fatal Bere, who is no slouch. If Joe Bravo can get a manageable trip from the seven hole, I expect Colonia to use her outstanding kick and nip the others at the wire for a mild upset.
Race Ten: 6:03 post – Maiden 67K 7F 2YO
7-8-10-2 $10 WP 7 $5 Exacta 7/8,10
Today’s final race is another MSW full of first time starters and sophomore two-year-olds. #8 Locally Owned and #10 Synthesis are sure to take most of the money as they are the runners with the best previous races. I’m not so sure that Synthesis wants to win, but Keith Desormeaux sure thinks a great deal of him as he has appeared in two Graded Stakes without winning his maiden. Locally Owned ran a very game second to Preamble, the ML favorite and my second selection in today’s third race. If Preamble fires a big one, I would certainly upgrade. Though I am likely tossing the winner with those two, I can’t resist making #7 Sultry Samurai my top selection for Asmussen/Santana. His sire is Midnight Lute and he was purchased for twenty times the stud fee this past March in Ocala. Asmussen wins at 17% with his first time starters and his 10/3/18 Keeneand work from the gate was a scorcher.